Today is the day of the Centennial Classic, held at Toronto’s BMO Field. Let’s examine what to watch for.
ML +135 / -155
O/U 5.5
The Leafs enter this game on a four-game winning streak, though they have lost five of their last six at home. Perhaps being away from the Air Canada Centre will allow them to feel like they are away from home.
Detroit has won four of their last five road games.
Without a doubt, the play of the day here is the under. Outdoor games very rarely are high-scoring, with the exception being last year’s Winter Classic between Montreal and Boston. Of the 15 outdoor games held since the inception of the Winter Classic, nine of them have featured five goals or fewer.
The under has hit in each of the last five meetings in Toronto and is 10-1-1 in the last 12 encounters overall. Normally there is a contest between two teams in an outdoor game within a month or so of the game prior, but this is the first time these two teams have met this season.
Detroit is 1-0-1 outdoors, with a win against Colorado last year and a loss in the shootout to Toronto at the big house in 2014.
One of the more memorable things about that Winter Classic for me was that the Maple Leafs traded John-Michael Liles to the Carolina Hurricanes literally hours before the game. That was cold (no pun intended, it was driving snow that day). And of course, there was the Water Bottle Incident driving animosity.
Classic. In an otherwise uneventful “Road to the Winter Classic” series, that and Randy Carlyle’s toaster debacle made it all worth it.
No official word has been passed down yet on the Red Wings’ starter yet. Jared Coreau could theoretically get the start, given Petr Mrazek’s struggles. Mrazzle Dazzle has allowed three or more goals in each of his last six appearances (five starts). He is 9-8-3 on the season with a 3.11 goals-against average and .896 save percentage. His performance has been a far cry from last season’s Vezina-caliber stint. Much of it has to do with the roster in front of him getting another year older, but he has been a mess from the get-go this season.
Jared Coreau was the backup for the Grand Rapids Griffins when they played the Toronto Marlies outdoors in 2014 at Comerica Park. Coreau has won two of his three starts this season, including a win over his sorta-hometown Ottawa Senators with his 92-year-old grandmother and parents in attendance. That was awesome. He has allowed nine goals in three starts with a .908 save percentage.
No surprises for the Leafs, as Frederik Andersen will get the call in net. Andersen has been perfectly serviceable for the Leafs this season, posting a 15-8-6 record with a 2.47 goals-against average and .925 save percentage. He has won four of his last five including a shutout against the Avalanche.
Andersen posted a .948 save percentage in the month of December.
Anthony Mantha has blossomed into one of the more fun players to watch on the Red Wings. He is riding a five-game point streak, with three goals and three assists in that span. He netted the game-winner in overtime against the Sens, a beauty of a wrister of a nice feed from Nik Kronwall. Mantha had six shots on goal that game.
Mantha will skate on the top line with leading scorer Henrik Zetterberg and Tomas Tatar.
If Detroit is looking at anyone to help boost their offensive output, surely one would have to give a glance at Dylan Larkin. Larkin has 10 goals and just four assists, two of them coming in the last three games. He had an impressive season last year, earning Calder consideration with his 45 points, but has not been able to get into a groove this season. His longest point streak is just two games.
Detroit will have to put up with the Leafs’ red-hot special teams unit this game. Toronto has tallied on the man advantage in four straight games while not allowing a powerplay goal in 19 attempts.
Outdoor games are such a toss-up to predict because of how unpredictable the ice conditions are. But I will take the home team to win the Centennial Classic, and expect a great show out of the pre-game as well.
Prediction for the Centennial Classic: Take the Leafs to win. Play the under.
