Last year at during NFL Wild Card week I began a playoff run of my own for the ages. It’s gone down in legend since, dubbed the “Near-Perfect Run,” by scholars, poets and Shaolin monks. I went 10-1 straight up last year’s playoffs and only a miracle overtime performance from Larry Fitzgerald, maybe the best postseason wide receiver in history, kept me from a perfect 11-0. Yeah. I flew too close to the sun.
And so I start anew with the first Wild Card game of the weekend, Saturday’s match up between the Oakland Raiders (12-4) and the Houston Texans (9-7). Kick off is set for 4:35 p.m. on ESPN.
Can I do it again? Let’s get fired up and see.
The Game: Oakland at Houston (-3.5, 36.5 O/U)
The History
The two teams have met just 10 times and never in the playoffs. The Texans lead the series 6-4, but Oakland won this year’s match up 27-20 on Nov. 21.
The Texans actually won the first three games of the series from 2004-2007 and five of the first six contests between the two teams.
How the Raiders Got Here
For the first 14 weeks of the season the Oakland Raiders, led by quarterback Derek Carr, were one of the most exciting teams in the NFL. Then Carr broke his leg in Week 15 and it all turned to shit.
It was a bad ending to a magnificent season for Carr who was making a real push for NFL MVP and ridiculously unfair for Raiders fans. They’d already dealt with the prospect of losing Carr a few weeks before when he dislocated the pinky finger on his throwing hand from a bad snap. Carr survived that and looked completely healthy before getting rolled up by a Colts defender two weeks ago.
Jack Del Rio makes it official:
Connor Cook will start against the Houston Texans in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. pic.twitter.com/gFyyptSYvy
— Eddie Paskal (@EddiePaskal) January 4, 2017
Enter Matt McGloin who mercifully for Oakland’s sake quickly exited with an injury of his own. The team is now in the hands of rookie Connor Cook out of Michigan State. Last year at this time Cook was preparing for a College Football Playoff match up against Alabama. He probably hopes this one goes a little better, considering the Spartans lost 38-0.
How the Texans Got Here
The Texans, thanks to some tremendously inept coaching from Bill O’Brien have been all over the place this season and it’s difficult to tell which team will take the field one week to the next. Houston brought in high-priced free agent quarterback Brock Osweiler from the Super Bowl Champion Denver Broncos in the offense and that should have fixed the biggest problem on the Texans’ team. Instead, with O’Brien’s inept playcalling and coach flubbery, he managed to ruin Osweiler’s confidence early and benched him two weeks ago for back up Tom Savage.
O'Brien: "Brock Osweiler will be the starting quarterback for us on Saturday."
— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) January 3, 2017
While Savage looked solid coming off the bench against the Jaguars, it was a different story when was actually handed the starting job. After a couple of lackluster performances and a concussion, Osweiler is back calling the signals.
The Texans have won this year on their defense and statistically they’ve been one of the best in the league, even without J.J. Watt. The emergence of Jadaveon Clowney, finally healthy, has created a scary unit that helped the team finish the season 3-1 over the last month. That one loss, though, was a bad one, 24-17 to the Mike Mularkey-led Tennessee Titans in the final game of the season.
The X-Factors
This game is all about Connor Cook and Brock Osweiler. Osweiler and O’Brien reportedly had what’s been called a “heated discussion” at halftime last week and if Osweiler is pissed enough to reclaim his spot and his career, this could be an easy win for the Texans. In my final pre-2016 NFL Draft evaluations I had Connor Cook as my No. 3 rated pro-ready quarterback behind Dak Prescott (No. 1) and Carson Wentz (No. 2). I was right about those guys. If I was equally as correct about Cook, he could put on a solid show with the pieces the Raiders can put around him.
The Pick
It’s a lot to ask a No. 3 quarterback who took starting reps all for one week to come in and win a playoff game against one of the two or three best defenses in the NFL. I see a lot of Raiders turnovers in this one. Texans 24, Raiders 13
Last Week
Straight up: 11-5
Against the spread: 9-7
Season
Straight up: 157-97-2
Against the spread: 124-28
To make a wager on this week’s NFL games, go to the world famous Diamond Sportsbook by clicking here.
