Pegasus World Cup strategies will change as soon as the gates open for the extravaganza Saturday at Gulfstream Park. Just like every other race though, it will come down to pace and how the race unfolds.
Those runners that can adapt to different Pegasus World Cup strategies figure to thrive in this $12 million 9-furlong race and if a bettors can look beyond the two obvious talents in this fray, they will get paid.
The winner of the Pegasus World Cup will earn $7 million. The runner-up will earn $1.75 million and the third finisher will pocket a cool million. The fourth through twelfth finishers each will earn $250,000.
On paper, California Chrome and Arrogate tower over the field but they don’t run races on paper. So many things can happen during the course of a race, especially when there is so much money on the line.
Let’s look at this race with Pegasus World Cup strategies that can make money at the end of the day and to shake things up, we’ll start with the runner that drew the extreme outside post, California Chrome.
Being drawn outside is not the place to be in this race with a quick run to the first turn but champions overcome adversity. Considering this is California Chrome’s final race, one would have to think that the connections would embrace World Cup strategies that include sending hard and putting this runner into the race at the sound of the bell. This is no time to experiment. It’s time to go to war.
Eragon, the Argentinean champion miler, is right inside Chrome in the eleven post. He has won half of his twenty starts but will get the test of his life here.
Breaking Lucky’s best asset could be his positional speed but in his two wins vs. winners, he beat six rivals each time. In his last race, he was second in the Clark Handicap.
Keen Ice starts in post nine. He did run a distant third in the Breeders’ Cup Classic and his connections were not dissatisfied with his second at Gulfstream on December 17.
Semper Fortis has trained well for this but he lost his only attempt at nine furlongs by a head.
Shaman Ghost is owned by Frank Stronach, who owns Gulfstream Park. The Ghost can be scary at times as he stepped up and won the Grade 1 Woodward last year. He has won at Gulfstream, has won off the layoff and has trained fast for this test.
War Envoy will be a huge price. He blanked last year and has never won in the United States. War Story is drawn directly inside the other ‘War’ horse. He is coming to this race right as he won his last start in the Queens County at Aqueduct in facile fashion.
Noble Bird was bothered at the start in his last race and never got untracked. He has plenty of back class and his pedigree is stellar. He is by the Belmont Stakes winner Birdstone and out a dam that is a daughter of 2-time Breeders’ Cup Classic hero Tiznow.
Neolithic has two major things in his favor. He is unbeaten at Gulfstream and he just posted a career best 103 Beyer Speed Figure. His effort in the Discovery in his November finale was solid considering he was 22-1.
Prayer for Relief, in post 2, has earned more than $2 million in his career but is winless in his last 20 starts. If he wins, the tote board will light so bright they will be able to see it on Mars.
Arrogate will be the first into the gate on Saturday. Having the rail kind of forces his hand. He doesn’t always break super sharply but the fact he is racing off a layoff could be plus. When horses are away and then come back to the game, they tend to be raring to go and very lively from the gate. Arrogate will have to be that way to avoid getting shuffled.
Trained by Bob Baffert, Arrogate’s World Cup strategies have to include the ability to run the option play. Even if he doesn’t break on top, he has the tactical speed to gain a good spot early in the race.
Arrogate is now 5 for 6 in his career and the only loss was in his troubled debut. His versatility could be his best asset as he has shown that he can take them wire-to-wire or come from slightly off the pace. He has already repaid his $560,000 purchase price and now has earned over $4 million.
Arrogate followed up his Travers Beyer Speed Figure of 122 with a sensational 120 in the Classic, matching American Pharoah’s Classic Beyer. His Travers final time of 1:59. 36 was a track record that had stood since 1979.
If one can isolate a horse that can beat either California Chrome and Arrogate, hats off to you. The Pegasus World Cup strategies that I will propose revolves around using the top two betting choices and then searching for the third and fourth finishers. If we can nail a superfecta that way, value has a chance to materialize.
My pick is Arrogate to win it all but let’s key both Arrogate and California Chrome first and second in the superfecta.
Now comes the hard part and figuring out how to fill up the wager. The wager is a .50 superfecta and we will key Arrogate and California Chrome in the first and second slots. We’ll use six other horses in the third and fourth spots. They are Keen Ice, Neolithic, Shaman Ghost, Eragon, Breaking Lucky and Noble Bird.
The cost of these tickets is $30. Good luck.
