With the NHL trade deadline right around the corner, the final stretch of the regular season is coming up with the contenders looking to load up for a Stanley Cup run while the outsiders try to sell in an attempt to improve their future outlook. While some teams are bound to pick up their performance level, there is a handful of teams that is much more likely to regress over the final couple of months of the season. Here is a look at the four NHL teams most likely to regress this season.
Edmonton Oilers (29-18-8)
Few projected the Oilers would be in contention for a Pacific division title heading in to the final stretch of the regular season but they are just three points back of the San Jose Sharks for the best record in that division with 27 games remaining. While Edmonton is definitely better than expected, the reality is that they could be due for a bit of regression based on their current points percentage. Strength of schedule will be the biggest factor as the Oilers will play the Sharks, Anaheim Ducks and Chicago Blackhawks twice along with games against the Washington Capitals, Pittsburgh Penguins and Montreal Canadiens. The Oilers are definitely set to be buyers at the NHL trade deadline and the pieces they acquire could help minimize their regression. However, Edmonton may have overachieved up to this point in the season so they are still more likely to regress than not the rest of the way.
Philadelphia Flyers (26-22-7)
The Flyers moved in to a playoff position in the Eastern Conference thanks in big part to a stretch of 10 straight wins earlier in the year. However, if you take away that run they are just 16-21-7 this season including a 4-6-1 mark over their last 11 games. The Metropolitan division is easily the toughest in the NHL this season and a tough strength of schedule could lead to Philadelphia regressing over the final couple of months. It will be very interesting to see whether the Flyers are buyers at this year’s NHL trade deadline with their results over their next couple of weeks likely factoring heavily in to that decision.
It’s also worth noting that the Flyers have allowed 167 goals so far this season. To put that into perspective, that’s the fourth-most goals in the league, so that’s why there is a strong case for this team to fade down the stretch rather than make a push for the playoffs.
St. Louis Blues (28-22-5)
St. Louis is 4-1-0 since Ken Hitchcock was fired and while there is reason for optimism following the coaching change it will be difficult for the Blues to avoid regression over the final couple of months. The team’s save percentage is an NHL-worst .887 this season and while the goaltending has been terrible there have been signs that an aging defense core is also part of the problem. Meanwhile, St. Louis had managed to avoid the injury bug until only recently but just lost Robby Fabbri for the season with a torn ACL. The Blues have hinted they could be sellers at this year’s NHL trade deadline with defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk a prime candidate to be moved. The general feeling is that St. Louis isn’t a Stanley Cup contender this season so they could be primed for a major regression if they decide to sell at the trade deadline.
Vancouver Canucks (24-24-6)
The Canucks deserve a ton of credit for maintaining a .500 record to this point in the season but they are stuck between contending and a rebuild and ultimately their success could pose problems in terms of finishing with a high enough draft pick. Vancouver should be a seller at the deadline as they attempt to acquire more assets to help their rebuild but the fact that they have hung around in the playoff race has stalled their urgency to move veteran pieces. The Canucks are getting just 44.7-percent of the goal share so far this season and with the trade deadline right around the corner and management likely to move some key pieces, Vancouver could be primed for regression over the final two months of the regular season.
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