The college basketball season is getting toward the end of the conference regular season for the small-conference teams. The big conferences generally end their regular seasons in early March, but the smaller ones finish in late February and then play their conference tournaments early in March, often on the first weekend. The time to make a push to the top of the standings and get a No. 1 seed in a conference tournament is running out. Among the mid-major teams currently leading their conferences, which ones have particularly good odds of causing some trouble in the NCAA Tournament… if, of course, they are able to get there?
Middle Tennessee
The Blue Raiders have to remain the gold standard among Cinderellas if they reach March Madness. This is the team which sprung the massive upset against national championship contender Michigan State a year ago. This was not a 16-over-1 upset, but among all the 15-over-2 seed upsets which have happened in NCAA Tournament history, this one is widely regarded as being the biggest of them all, and hence the largest upset the sport has ever seen. The Blue Raiders have most of their players from last season back. They can still hit a large number of three-point shots and put opposing defenses in very difficult positions. They are extremely fearless in terms of how they play, and last season will give them a lot of confidence as they head into both the Conference USA and NCAA Tournaments this season. If they do win Conference USA and get into March Madness, the Blue Raiders will be a very tough out.
The Blue Raiders are coming off another quality performance on Saturday after beating Charlotte 70-55. Middle Tennessee has now won 12 of their last 13 games. They’ll have a tough stretch coming up though as their next three games are all on the road.
New Mexico State
The big thing mentioned every year before March Madness is that teams need a strong and dependable point guard to see them through difficult periods of games and the times when the flow of play isn’t optimal. Point guards are extensions of their head coaches on the floor. They guide their teammates through stormy waters. New Mexico has a senior guard named Ian Baker who contributes in terms of both statistics and intangible leadership qualities. New Mexico State has a new head coach after longtime boss Marvin Menzies left last year for UNLV. Baker is the player who has held the team together. He is someone to be trusted, given that the Aggies lead the Western Athletic Conference despite their coaching change.
The Aggies did suffer a very unexpected loss at CS Bakerfield on Thursday in what can only be explained as a letdown game. They lost by 19. However, they should be able to bounce back on Saturday night with a manageable opponent in Grand Canyon University.
Akron
The Zips are an impressive 19-3, and what’s even better is that they have won 12 straight games. They have an active front line with a reasonable degree of size. They are balanced and are demonstrating the kind of consistency which is needed at tournament time. A really fast team might give Akron problems, but this is a team positioned to win halfcourt games if it gets the right draw in March Madness.
Valparaiso
The best thing working in favor of the Crusaders is that – perhaps more than any other mid-major conference leader right now (Gonzaga being a program which is not really a mid-major in any meaningful sense) – they have that one star player who can take over a game. Alec Peters is one of the best frontcourt players in the country. Peters averages 24 points and 11 rebounds per game. He’s an absolute nightmare for opposing defenders, especially in the paint. He will give Valpo a chance against anyone.
Entering Saturday, Valpo had won nine of their last 10 games. They did stumble at Green Bay in an unexpected result but other than that, they have been very solid this season. They could surprise in the early rounds of March Madness.
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