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2017 Philadelphia Phillies Preview

The Philadelphia Phillies have turned the page towards a new era as they look to rebuild their roster following a run of dominance in the National League East. The Phillies were the class of the NL East from 2007 to 2011 but after stumbling with aging stars on bad contracts over the past couple of years they are finally set to start over again. Ryan Howard’s departure will open up a spot for 25-year-old Tommy Joseph at first base while 25-year-old Odubel Herrera also makes the leap to a full-time position in center field. Philadelphia brought in some key veterans to help the young players make their transition and suddenly there is some substantial optimism surrounding a club that is clearly in transition heading in to this season.

Key Additions: CP Clay Buchholz, OF Howie Kendrick, OF Michael Saunders, RP Pat Neshek, RP Joaquin Benoit

Key Losses: 1B Ryan Howard, OF Cody Asche, SP Charlie Morton

Strengths

While Joseph and Herrera represent upgrades as potential future stars that will be featured this season, the real optimism belongs to a pitching staff that has the potential to be lights out this season. Jared Eickhhoff was an absolute stud last season when he registered a 3.65 ERA over 197 innings while Jeremy Hellickson and Vincent Velasquez showed flashes of dominance. Former first round pick Aaron Nola also appears ready for the spotlight and if everything comes together then Philadelphia could have one of the better rotations in the National League. Meanwhile, the offense isn’t elite but it should be better than it was a year ago.  Kendrick and Saunders are quality veteran adds that should help the young stars as they transition to full-time roles this season.

Weaknesses

While there is a lot of promise on this roster, it’s unreasonable to expect the young players to perform at an All-Star level right away. The Phillies are committed to giving their young players opportunities while cultivating their farm system so there will be growing pains along the way. The hope is that the starting rotation could hold its own and take some of the pressure off of the batters but even in that area there will be inconsistencies, particularly when it comes to the back end of the rotation and the bullpen with Buchholz being asked to hold down the fifth spot among the starters and a lack of depth among the relief staff. Philadelphia is turning the page on a new era and while there are a lot of promising pieces in place it will take time for this team to transform in to a contender again.

2017 Philadelphia Phillies Depth Chart

Catcher Cameron Rupp Andrew Knapp Jorge Alfaro
First Base Tommy Joseph Andres Blanco Howie Kendrick
Second Base Cesar Hernandez Andres Blanco Howie Kendrick
Third Base Maikel Franco Andres Blanco
Shortstop Freddy Galvis Andres Blanco
Left Field Howie Kendrick Aaron Altherr Roman Quinn
Center Field Odubel Herrera Aaron Altherr Roman Quinn
Right Field Michael Saunders Aaron Altherr Roman Quinn
Designated Hitter
Starting Pitcher Jeremy Hellickson Clay Buchholz Jerad Eickhoff Aaron Nola Vince Velasquez
Relief Pitcher Joaquin Benoit Hector Neris Edubray Ramos Pat Neshek Joely Rodriguez
Closer Jeanmar Gomez

Projected Win Total: 72.5

World Series Odds: +12500

Outlook

The Phillies are smart to accelerate their rebuild and commit to their future by putting their young stars in position to get some important experience while adding experienced veterans to fill the holes in their roster. However, Philadelphia is still one of the weaker teams on paper in the National League, so it makes sense to expect some inconsistencies throughout the season. Even in the National League East, they figure to have trouble competing as the New York Mets and Washington Nationals should be playoff-caliber teams while the Miami Marlins and Atlanta Braves will be around .500.

The Phillies should manage to top last year’s mark of 71 wins but we can’t expect more than a marginal improvement for a young team that will be battling just to stay out of the NL East basement in 2017. Look for them to finish last in the NL East.

Prediction: 75-86

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Written by Geoff Harvey

Geoff Harvey has been creating odds and betting models since his days in the womb, just don't ask him how he used to get his injury reports back then. Harvey contributes a wealth of quality and informational content that is a valuable resource for any handicapper.

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