The Butler Bulldogs will take on the Big South Conference champions, the Winthrop Eagles on Thursday afternoon as a part of the First round South Region matchup. The Eagles return to the NCAA final tournament after a 10 year hiatus. The Bulldogs, on the other side, are a mainstay in the Big Dance as this is their ninth appearance in the last 11 years, third consecutive.
Place: BMO Harris Bradley Center, Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Date/Time: Thursday March 16th, 2017. 01:30 PM ET
TV Coverage: TNT
#4 Butler Bulldogs vs. #13 Winthrop Eagles
LINE: Butler -11 (-108);
Total: 145 points (-108 over, -103 under)
The Butler Bulldogs are capable of defeating the best but also losing to the worst
The Butler Bulldogs (23-8) were the second best team in the Big East, but failed to build some momentum going into the tournament after falling 57-62 to Xavier in the conference quarterfinals. More losses to weaker opposition during the season were offset by notable wins against the Villanova Wildcats, but the Bulldogs are rather unpredictable.
The base of their play is their solid on-ball defense, as well as high shooting efficiency. They play inside the point more and take a pretty good care of the ball. The Bulldogs are not a superstar team, evidenced by benching of their leading scorer Kelan Martin. Andrew Chrabascz is a solid big man that makes opponents work hard on the block. Given their size, Butler is a subpar rebounding team and this could become an issue in the next rounds.
The Bulldogs are putting up 76.3 points per game on a 48% shooting from the field and 36% from behind the arc. On the defense, the Bulldogs give up 68.4 points while forcing their opponents to commit 13.5 turnovers per game.
Andrew Chrabascz is putting up 11.0 points per game, while Kelan Martin averages 16.1 points in 29.2 minutes per game. Martin is also grabbing 5.7 boards while Chrabascz collects 4.6 boards and 3.2 assists per game.
The Winthrop Eagles hope for an upset
The No. 13-seeded Winthrop Eagles ended their regular season with a 26-6 record, winning their last 8 games and 17 out of 19 since the turn of the calendar. Both of the losses in this stretch came in overtime. They are hungry and won’t be satisfied by the well earned Big South trophy and couple of player awards for their best player, Keon Johnson. Minuscule Johnson was the 10th leading scorer in the Division, scoring 22.4 points per game and shooting better than 40% from beyond the arc.
The Eagles love to launch it from the deep, hitting almost 10 triples a game on a higher percentage. Four players attempt at least 4 deep shots per game and their second leading scorer, Xavier Cooks, isn’t too far behind with 3.2 tries. They have played a solid defense, allowing only .405 FG% to their rivals and allowing 70.2 points per game. They score 9.5 points more, and the 79.7 average per game is good for #43 in the nation. Furthermore, the Eagles average 37.4 rebounds per game, while forcing their opponents to commit 14.1 turnovers per game.
Keon Johnson is the leading scorer for the Eagles with 22.5 points per game, while pulling down 3.9 rebounds and dishing out 2.6 assists in 35 minutes of play. Xavier Cooks is 2nd in scoring with 16.3 points in 28.8 minutes. In addition, Cooks is pulling down teams best 9.2 rebounds, handing out 2.8 assists.
#4 Butler Bulldogs vs. #13 Winthrop Eagles Game Trends & Prediction
Butler fared well against the spread, going 17-12 for the season, while they were less predictable on the over/under market, with a 14-13-2 record. However, the Bulldogs haven’t been too kind to their backers as favorites of 5 or more points, going 6-10 ATS in such games.
Winthrop have been off the books radar for the most part, going 3-4-1 ATS and 6-2 against the O/U.
I’m going against the public here, as Butler’s biggest advantage is the experience of playing capable opponents. They play well, but don’t impose their will on games, especially when strongly favored. Take the points and the Winthrop Eagles. I’m also going with the over points as I believe both teams will score at will.
My Pick: Winthrop +11
Total: Over 145 points
