The Minnesota Golden Gophers’ completed their turnaround season when the NCAA tournament selection committee gave them a surprisingly high No. 5 seed and a trip to Milwaukee to play the No. 12 seed Middle Tennessee St.. The Blue Raiders won’t shrink from a top Big Ten opponent, and the bookmakers could care less about the seeding, slightly favoring the lower seed.
Place: BMO Harris Bradley Center, Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Date/Time: Thursday March 16th, 2017. 04:00 PM ET
TV Coverage: TNT
#5 Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. #12 Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders
LINE: Middle Tennessee -1 (-106)
Total: 136.5 points (-105 over, -104 under)
Can Pitino’s team overcome the loss of Springs?
The Minnesota Golden Gophers (24-9), who have won nine of their last 11 games, defeated Michigan State Spartans on Friday in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten tournament but then lost to eventual tournament champ Michigan Wolverines in the semifinals on Saturday afternoon. The loss came without their guard and senior captain Akeem Springs, who is out for the season with an Achilles’ tendon injury. Springs’ injury is something the Gophers want to use as motivation.
Gophers played consistent basketball in a tough conference and earned their wins. Team is very versatile, as the players believe in each other and their coach’s game plan, proving that they can win against some formidable opponents. Guards Nate Mason and Amir Coffey control the play and are team’s best scoring options, while Jordan Murphy established himself as a steady presence in the paint. What they’ll clearly miss without Springs is his three point threat.
Offensively, this could prove costly, as they were a below average scoring team with 75.3 a game. They excel in rebounding and blocking, making best of their athletic abilities and hustle. The Gophers contest every shot, forcing rivals to a late shot clock situation with good rotations, so they can rely on it even if the shots don’t fall on Thursday.
The Blue Raiders prove they are no fluke
The Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders (30-4) had no problem cruising to the Conference USA title with 6 players returning from the last year’s campaign when they pulled one of the biggest recent upset by defeating Michigan State in the first round. This time, the Blue Raiders are one of the most popular picks to upset the higher seed.
Arkansas transfer Jacorey Williams is their most prominent weapon, leading the team in points (17.3) and rebounds (7.3), but the team is much more than him. Returning players like Potts and Upshaw have large role as well and the roster rotation is 8 players deep. This is not a team that will wow you; they play for the high percentage shot, attack the basket and shoot very few outside shots. They are gritty on the defensive end, allowing 20th best 63.3 points per game. They are also riding a high wave by winning 20 of their last 21 games, much of them with ease.
#5 Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. #12 Middle Tennessee St. Blue Raiders Game Trends & Prediction
The Minnesota Golden Gophers went 19-12 ATS and 18-13 against the over/under and were impressive until Springs injury, covering 6 of 7 games with all games going over the projected points line. Their regular season ending loss to Wisconsin and tournament loss to Michigan bleak the bright image a bit, so the Gophers went 1-2 both ATS and O/U in the last three games.
The Blue Raiders were excellent against the spread, going 23-10 for their backers, and their games went to under at high rate, as they finished the season 13-20 against the over/under. They’ve upped the scoring in March, so the 4 out of last 5 games went to over the rather low total lines and covered in four consecutive games despite being heavily favored.
I always look for tough, battling teams to support in the tournament and you can’t go much better than the Middle Tennessee if you are looking for a team whose effort won’t disappoint you. Expect this game to go to the last shot, so there’s no much value in picking either team, but if you feel like it, I’m not opposing going with the Blue Raiders. Total is much more interesting – with the importance of the game and the absence of outside threat of Springs, together with more than solid defenses on both sides, the points will be hard to come. Therefore, I’m going with the under, with a slight fear that the game might go to overtime or that the total will be passed on the late fouling tactics.
My Pick: Pass / Middle Tennessee St. -1
Total: Under 136.5 points (-104)
