The No. 8 vs. No. 9 is almost always coming to the wire, but what if one of them is playing in their first tournament ever?! Read on to see how the Northwestern Wildcats compare to the Vanderbilt Commodores in their NCAA Tournament debut.
Place: Vivint Smart Home Arena, Salt Lake City, Utah
Date/Time: Thursday March 16th, 2017. 04:30 PM ET
TV Coverage: TBS
#8 Northwestern Wildcats vs. #9 Vanderbilt Commodores
LINE: Vanderbilt -1 (-106)
Total: 130.5 points (-103 over, -108 under)
The Wildcats dream season continues
As the semifinalists of the Big Ten championship tournament, the Northwestern Wildcats (23-11) earned the right to be the #8 seed. They started their season with 18 wins in their first 22 games, never losing by more than 9 points in the process, while earning many notable wins against more prominent programs. The results regressed last couple of months, but the Wildcats still defeated Michigan, Wisconsin, Rutgers (twice) and Maryland.
The Wildcats are led by the superb play of their junior guards duo, Scottie Lindsey (14.2 ppg) and Bryant McIntosh (14.4 ppg, 5.2 apg). No household names, but a pair of reliable players who can control the tempo of the game, run smart offense and play good backcourt defense. This translates to the entire team – the Wildcats are very responsible, play of each other strengths and hold down the fort on defense. In fact, they are among the top 20 teams nationwide across many defensive categories. Not elite, but certainly to be reckoned with.
They have scored 71.1 points per game, with 7 players scoring more than 6 points on average, but have allowed 65.1 points, playing the second best defense in the conference. They have played number of close games during the season and are comfortable in the grind-out games.
Vanderbilt steady, but can they explode at the right time?
The Vanderbilt Commodores (19-15) played a tough non-conference schedule which played a large role in their 15 losses. They’ve started slow and turned the season around in 2017, finishing with 7 wins in their last 9 games, ultimately falling to Arkansas in their SEC tournament run.
A potent shooting team, Vanderbilt relies on their outside shooters by taking more than 26 threes a game. Their four top scorers average double digits, all taking over 3 three pointers. Matthew Fisher-Davis takes 6.6, hitting them at .372 clip. While they are not a defensive team, they have a strong presence in the paint in Luke Kornet who blocks 2.0 shots a game and hauls in 6.2 rebounds.
Despite playing against formidable opponents, the Commodores have a +3.2 winning margin, as they score 71.3 points per game and allow 68.1 points. They have a short rotation that brings familiarity between players. Among the 8 leaders in minutes played, the Vanderbilt Commodores lost only a single game due to player absence.
#8 Northwestern Wildcats vs. #9 Vanderbilt Commodores Game Trends & Prediction
With an unexpected rise, the Wildcats predictably performed better than expected, earning a 19-12 ATS score. They were money in the 4 of their last 6 games. They got thrashed in the last game against Wisconsin (48-76 as 4.5 underdogs) but should be able to put that game away in their minds as they make their school history. They are an unders sweetheart with 11-18-2 against the over/under, so their recent total points lines have been in 120s. The last three games went to the over side, the last two by two points combined.
The Vanderbilt Commodores have a similar betting profile. They covered in most of their games, going 20-12 ATS, while also providing more value in under points, where they were a 13-18-1 team, albeit with the usual lines in upper 130s or lower 140s.
Both teams grew into the underdog role, so with this game at a virtual pick-em, they are on a somewhat unfamiliar ground. Vanderbilt is a slightly better team but the frequent losing can ruin a team’s mentality. Still, with this game likely coming to the final shot, I’d rather go with a team who is accustomed to taking threes and can make one, so I’m picking Vanderbilt to win and advance. Total points line is well set. The under holds a small value, but win-or-go-home games that are projected to be close often feature a lot of end game fouling and both teams are very solid from the stripe. If you are comfortable with it, go with the low points.
My Pick: Vanderbilt -1
Total: Pass / Under 130.5 points (-103)
