The Saint Mary’s Gaels will take on the VCU Rams in their quest to prove their worth and get a chance of measuring up with the #2 Arizona Wildcats. Third game on Salt Lake City Thursday schedule will feature two strong mid-major teams so make sure you don’t overlook it.
Place: Vivint Smart Home Arena, Salt Lake City, Utah
Date/Time: Thursday March 16th, 2017. 07:20 PM ET
TV Coverage: TBS
#7 Saint Mary’s Gaels vs. #10 VCU Rams
LINE: Saint Mary’s -4 (-114)
Total: 130 points (-104 over, -108 under)
Saint Mary’s hopes to play up to their potential and their seed
The Saint Mary’s Gaels (28-4) shut down teams. There’s no other way to put it. Ten of their opponents were held under 50 points and the season average of 56.5 points allowed is the second best in the nation. There’s little surprise in how the Gaels play as they rarely abandon their lockdown man-to-man defense, but no team, other than Gonzaga who handed 3 of their 4 defeats, has been able to break it down. Unfortunately, the Gaels have gathered few quality wins and while a lot of experts rate them much higher, so the #7 seed came as a result of being not-as-Gonzaga good.
On top of the stout defense, the Gaels play at a snail pace, which, combined by the usual one-and-done for the opponents, can break other teams rhythm and spirit. The Gaels make you take bad shots, miss them and grab all the rebounds. Then they make you play D for the entire shot-clock, and they score on you – Saint Mary’s is a top 10 shooting team in the nation by the field goal percentage, hitting their shots at .496 rate.
They are the full package – dominant center (Jock Lansdale 16.8ppg 9.3 rpg), strong shooters outside (Hermanson, Naar, Fitzner) – so their average scoring of 72.0 points on a 50% shooting from the field per game can be a little deceiving. The Gaels are collecting 35.6 rebounds and 16.8 assists per contest.
The VCU Rams hope to find their best form in the opening round
The VCU Rams failed to win the Atlantic 10 title, losing to Rhode Island and finishing second best in their conference behind Dayton, the only other team to beat St. Mary’s this season. The Rams (26-8) won only 3 of their last 6 games, but coach Wade hopes that the big stake will wake his team up.
The team is led by three-point shooting JeQuan Lewis at 14.7 points per game and have a good post presence with Justin Tillman’s 12.5 points and 8.5 rebounds. They are also solid defensively, playing the passing lanes well and holding opponents to 66.4 points a game. They score 74.7 points per game on a 46% shooting from the field, for a very solid +8.3 average margin. In addition, the Rams collect 36.6 rebounds and 15.3 assists per game, while their tight defense forces their opponents to commit 14.7 turnovers per game.
#7 Saint Mary’s Gaels vs. #10 VCU Rams Game Trends & Prediction
The Gaels have gone 16-11-2 ATS and are unsurprisingly an under points team, going 12-17 against the O/U. SMC is actually much better side to take when they don’t play at home, going 11-4 ATS in such games.
The VCU Rams covered only twice in the last 7 games, bringing their ATS score to 12-17-1. On the other hand, their last two games went over the set line and they are 17-13 against the over/under for the season. However, of those two last games, one went to overtime, while the other has gone to overs by a single point, so it’s hardly a building trend.
Without any momentum to build on, the VCU Rams can only hope to stay in the game with the Gaels, but catching fire is a hard thing to do against them, so falling behind is not a good game plan. Expect the Gaels to outwork the lower seed and prove their worth – go with the favorite here. Despite that, the market total points line leaves no value in the under play. Both teams are fairly good, efficient in scoring and I expect them both to score over 60 points. The line should be set closer to 130 points, so I’m going with the over pick.
My Pick: Saint Mary’s -4 (-114)
Total: Over 130 points (-104)
