In the first game at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento scheduled for Friday, the #3 Oregon Ducks will face the #14 IONA Gaels in what looks to be a thrilling encounter of two high powered offenses. Oregon is a clear favorite, ranking high in polls throughout the season, but the Gaels can make it interesting against any opponent.
Place: Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, California
Date/Time: Friday March 17th, 2017. 02:00 PM ET
TV Coverage: TBS
#3 Oregon Ducks vs. #14 IONA Gaels
LINE: Oregon -14.5 (-111); moneyline -1400
Total: 152 points (-108o, -108u)
Ducks are good, but not as good as with Boucher
The Oregon Ducks (29-5) have lost 5 games all season, but the last one still stings as they’ve lost a close call Pac 12 championship title game to Arizona with 80:83. That game broke the Ducks’ eight game winning streak. It was also the first game the Ducks had to play without Chris Boucher who tore his ACL a night before. Boucher, Ducks’ starting center was their third leading scorer at 11.8 points a game, but more important, he has a unique capability of stretching the floor by his shooting range on one end and anchoring the middle of Ducks’ defense with team-high 2.5 blocks per game. He is a vital piece for the Ducks and it will be quite a task to replicate his contribution.
With Boucher, Oregon was an elite defensive team, allowing .401 shooting percentage to their opponent and holding them to 65.0 points per game. Unlike most strong defensive teams, the Ducks play both ways. They can run with anyone, shoot well and score almost 80 points a game. Led by versatile Dillon Brooks (16.3 ppg) and outside shooting of Tyler Dorsey (13.3 ppg), the Ducks are still a dangerous team, but their chances for a deep run are severely diminished due to Boucher’s injury.
The Gaels try to outscore the opposition
The IONA Gaels (22-12) stayed true to their style, running and gunning each game. They finished the season just third in the MAAC, but won the conference tournament by beating Siena in the finals by a single point in the extra period. They were far from a force during the year, stumbling often against various opponents and are not a serious contender to make a first round upset.
Most of their qualities on the offensive end, where they average 80.5 points and hit more threes than all but 8 Division I teams, is undone by lack of defense. The Gaels allowed 76.4 points per game, ranking worse than 300 schools in almost every defensive category. They are led by Jordan Washington on inside, who scored 18 points a game and often puts pressure on the opposing frontcourt with his knack of drawing fouls. The rest of the team just fires threes at will. In fact, not counting Washington and the backup centers, the Gaels shoot more threes than twos.
#3 Oregon Ducks vs. #14 IONA Gaels Game Trends & Prediction
Oregon has been 19-14 ATS for the season and 15-18 against the over/under. They were heavily favored against the most of their opposition with most of the total lines in 150s. They are a popular public team, so the market recently tends to adjust lines to their side to protect itself, so the Ducks covered only two of their last 6 games.
The IONA Gaels haven’t been a good play against the spread, going 14-16-2, but were money on the over side, despite the high total lines. For the season, they went 19-13 against the over/under.
Both teams can lit up the scoreboard, but the Ducks are way disciplined on the defensive end, so it’s not likely that IONA can pull a complete upset. That being said, I’m picking them to cover, as 14.5 points is quite a large spread to beat when the other team can score from deep at IONA’s rate and when you are still working out the rotations, have no services of your best rim protector and playing on a neutral court. I’m also going with the over points.
My Pick: IONA +14.5
Total: Over 152 points
