NBA Preview: Mavericks vs Nets; Celtics vs Sixers
Dallas Mavericks (29-39) at Brooklyn Nets (13-55), 12 p.m. EST
Line: Mavs -4.5. Total 208.5.
The Mavericks lost by 42 points in their last game at Philadelphia on Friday. Dallas lost 116-74 to the fifth worst team in the league. Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle emptied his bench midway through the third quarter and the starters never found their way back into the game.
This sets up a big-time bounce-back spot for the Mavs on Sunday afternoon at Brooklyn. This is good news for Dallas backers. Since November 25, the day they lost at Cleveland by 38 points to bring their record to 2-13, the Mavericks have gone 27-26 in their last 53 games. More importantly, the Mavs are 4-1 straight up and 5-0 ATS (Against The Spread) in bounce-back games following a loss of 22 points or more.
Dallas has slowed down the last four games after they went 6-1 straight up and ATS their previous 7 games to creep back into the playoff race in the Western Conference. A tough 2-point loss at home against Phoenix has started this brief 1-3 slide, which has the Mavs four games out of the final playoff spot in the West.
Brooklyn has the worst record in the league by far, yet they have been scrappy in their last 7 games, going 3-4 straight up and 6-1 ATS. This was after a horrific stretch that saw the Nets go 2-29 straight up and 10-21 ATS their previous 31 games.
The Mavs just beat Brooklyn on March 10 by 9 points, but failed to cover the 9.5 point spread. I do not believe Dallas will blow out Brooklyn here, but I do see a win of at least 5 points in this bounce-back spot.
I will take the automatic pick for the game to go under the total being that is an early start and the under is now 28-19 in games that have started at 3:35 p.m. local time or earlier this season.
However, I would never take a game’s under solely for that reason. Both teams are trending to the under in recent games. Brooklyn has gone under 4 of their last 6 games and Dallas has gone under 12 of their last 15 games.
My pick:
Dallas Mavericks -4.5, laying $110 to win $100 (1 unit, normal play).
NBA Preview: Mavericks vs Nets, Celtics vs Sixers
Boston Celtics (44-25) at Philadelphia 76ers (25-43), 1 p.m. EST
Line: Celtics -5.5. Total 208.5.
This will be the fourth and final meeting between these two teams this season. The Celtics have won all three games straight up, but for people who follow the Vegas line religiously, the Sixers won all three games against the spread.
The Sixers lead the league in ATS wins, with a record of 43-24-1. The Celtics are ranked #10 ATS with a record of 35-32-2.
Philadelphia has covered the spread in five straight games, despite winning just two of those games. This is a team who, despite their injuries, rarely quit in games. They go down fighting until the end of the game, which has produced their high number of ATS wins.
Boston will be missing their leading scorer and All-Star, Isaiah Thomas, for the second straight game due to a bruised right knee. Thomas is averaging 29.2 points per game, ranking him second in the league in scoring, just ahead of James Harden at 29.1, who is ranked third. They both trail Russell Westbrook, who leads the league with 31.7 points per game.
The Celtics struggled to score at times on Saturday against Brooklyn, one of the worst defenses in the league. The Nets are ranked #28 in “defensive rating” out of 30 teams. Boston still won 98-95, but their 98 points were 9.5 points below their season average.
I definitely will be on this under for three reasons:
- The Celtics have gone under 11 of their last 13 games.
- The Sixers have gone under 7 of their last 11 games.
- This is an early afternoon game and, as I mentioned in the Mavericks vs Nets preview, afternoon games have gone under 28 times in 47 games.
The theory behind these afternoon unders is simple. NBA players have daily routines on game day. There are late morning or early afternoon walk-throughs or shoot-arounds, then a break, and then their pre-game routine for the vast majority of their games which start at night. Early afternoon games disrupt the game-day routine for NBA players.
My pick:
Boston / Philadelphia under 208.5, laying $110 to win $100 (1 unit, normal play).
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Look for more NBA previews for Sunday on the GMS site similar to this Mavericks vs Nets preview.
