The Baylor Bears and the South Carolina Gamecocks will confront in Madison Square Garden for a place in the Elite Eight. While the Bears were somewhat expected to reach this far, few have predicted that the Gamecocks will beat Duke. Can they do it again?
Place: Madison Square Garden, New York, New York
Date/Time: Friday March 24th, 2017. 07:40 PM ET
TV Coverage: TBS
#3 Baylor Bears vs. #7 South Carolina Gamecocks
LINE: Baylor -3.5 (-102); moneyline -159
Total: 135 points (-102 over, -105 under)
Baylor depth the difference against USC
Other teams seem to be clearing the Baylor Bears (27-7) path before they finish the job. But playing against the teams that are very excited to show their best in the biggest stage is not a simple task. This proved to be true against the USC Trojans whom the Bears barely managed to defeat 82-78. Hot and believing Trojans shot 55% from the field, 41% from deep and missed only one free throw, but the Bears found some answers of their own. They dominated the interior with Motley (19 points, 10 rebounds, 9-of-12 shooting) and Maston (19 points, 9 rebounds, 7-of-13 FGs) and their point guard came through at the most important time, scoring all 12 of his points in the final 5 minutes of the game. King McClure hit 5 threes and the Bears got contribution from most of their players. Trojans were expected to be gassed at the end of the game – their weren’t, but Baylor were simply better.
The key in their second round win was the offensive rebounding. The Bears grabbed 14 boards after their missed shots, almost outrebounding the Trojans under their basket. It wore the USC defense down and got Baylor confidence to shoot. They’ve shot well too. Baylor was 31-of-61 from the field and scored 7 three pointers. They’ve also converted 13-of-15 free throws. Neither of these stats is too surprising as the Bears were a top 40 team in efficiency this season (.476) and 16th best offensive rebounding team. On a day when your defense can’t stop hot shooting, those are nice attributes to have.
For the season, Baylor now has a +10 point differential. They score 73.5 points per game and limit the opposition to 63.5 points on average. With Villanova and Duke out of the way, Baylor is the highest seed still playing in the East Region.
South Carolina shocks Duke by incredible second half
The South Carolina Gamecocks (24-10) first round shooting was gone. They scored on 23 first half point and were trailing Duke by 7 at the break. They shot 20 percent. They looked scared. The many Gamecocks’ fans in the arena were mildly involved. Then, second half happened. South Carolina outscored the Blue Devils 65-51! It’s the most points Duke has allowed in a half in Krzyzewski’s tenure, and he’s been around for quite a while. Chris Silva and Sindarius Thornwell have hit shot after a shot, Duane Notice was aggressive, attacking the rim and the arena exploded. The Blue Devils responded by fouling and coughing up the ball repeatedly, not knowing what has hit them.
The South Carolina Gamecocks shot 71.4 percent in the second half and took 10 more shots than Duke for the game. They’ve hit 27-of-32 freebies and have grabbed 15 offensive rebounds. A night like this, on the biggest stage and against a blue blood team, has the Gamecocks players believing they could go and win it all.
Of course, by looking at their seasonal averages, it’s far from a standard. South Carolina scores 72.6 points on average. They’ve scored 191 points combined in the first two rounds. They allow a very solid 65.3 point per game and Duke was clearly troubled by their defense, so it’s more of what should the Gamecocks rely on in the next game versus Baylor.
#3 Baylor Bears vs. #7 South Carolina Gamecocks Game Trends & Prediction
The Baylor Bears haven’t had much success recently against the spread, going only 4-6 in the last ten games and 15-14 for the season. Under was more frequent on their games, but not recently as they’ve stringed four overs. For the season, Baylor is 12-16 against the O/U.
The South Carolina Gamecocks have covered in only 1 game in the last 10 games of the regular season, so it’s no wonder that nobody expected them to fare this well against Marquette and Duke. With those two ATS wins, they are now 13-16-2 ATS overall. They are also more of an under team over the course of the season, going 13-17-1 against the over/under. The last two games were clear overs.
It’s so March Madness to have a South Carolina pulling upsets and beating the odds. But it ends here. They can’t sustain this kind of shooting by the law of averages and won’t play in front of their fans any more. Baylor is a deep and organized team who might not excite in any aspect of the game, but are more solid than the most in all of them. The books opened the line putting Baylor a 3 point favorite, so early money jumped on it. Don’t wait too long as you’ll only lose value. The Bears win this comfortably. I also hoped for the under here after another Gamecocks game with many points, so the 135 points offered is very disappointing. It actually holds a tiny value for the overs. Don’t you hate when this happens. Skip it.
My Pick: Baylor -3.5/-4
Total: Pass
