While the majority of the focus at this time of the year is on preparing for the fantasy baseball league season, baseball fans would be wise to parlay their knowledge in to some additional sports betting money. If you are going to invest the time in forecasting what to expect from the top fantasy options, you might as well spend some time examining the value of some MLB futures bets. We took a closer look at the futures for pitcher win totals and found some smart value picks. Here is a look at the best bets for MLB futures regular season win totals.
Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
UNDER 16.5 Wins
Kershaw posted just 12 wins in 21 starts last season. He turned 29 in March and there is a good chance that injuries will slow him down for a second year in a row. Kershaw has pitched at an elite level eight years in a row but it’s unrealistic to expect him to dominate forever. Nine pitchers registered 17 wins or more a year ago and none of them made fewer than 30 starts. Kershaw will have a tough time hitting either of those marks in 2017.
Chris Sale, Boston Red Sox
OVER 15.5 Wins
The blockbuster deal that sent Sale to the Red Sox is expected to put them over the top in 2017. Boston will need to overcome some lingering injury issues in its starting rotation to reach its potential, but Sale should be fine. The veteran left-hander posted 17 wins in 31 starts a year ago with the White Sox. It only makes sense that he will improve on that total with a better offense supporting him in 2017.
David Price, Boston Red Sox
UNDER 15.5 Wins
While Sale should be able to reach 16 wins, Price will have a much more difficult time reaching that mark in 2017. It has already been reported that Price is out until May at the earliest and the Red Sox don’t have a timetable for his return. Price has recorded 35 wins combined over the last two seasons, but he needed a total of 67 starts to hit that number. If Price is out for any extended period of time then he will have no realistic shot at topping 15.5 wins in 2017.
Zack Greinke, Arizona Diamondbacks
OVER 13.5 Wins
It would be an understatement to say that Greinke underachieved last season. The veteran right-hander went 13-7 with a brutal 4.37 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Compare those numbers to the previous season, when he went 19-3 with a 1.66 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP and the disparity is incredible. Greinke won’t repeat his incredible 2015 season but he also won’t struggle the way he did a year ago. 14 wins is easily attainable for the Diamondbacks ace, especially with so much offensive talent on the roster.
Gerrit Cole, Pittsburgh Pirates
UNDER 12.5 Wins
Cole’s win total crashed from 19 in 2015 to just seven in 21 starts with the Pirates in 2016. While his futures total is listed at 12.5 in anticipation of him bouncing back, Cole will need to overcome injuries and be more willing to trust his breaking pitches. Coles has the potential to rebound but it’s hard to trust him to reach 13 wins on a relatively mediocre Pittsburgh team. Factor in that the Pirates play in such a tough division and it makes a lot of sense to take the UNDER here.
Masahiro Tanaka, New York Yankees
OVER 12.5 Wins
Tanaka went 14-4 in 31 starts last season. If he can overcome the injuries that have plagued him in the past, he could post even better numbers in 2017. The other factor here is that the Yankees should be better as a team in 2017. They added some pop to the lineup with the likes of Matt Holliday and Chris Carter, and their young core is a year old. On top of that, they added fireballer Aroldis Chapman to the back of the bullpen. That means Tanaka should be in good hands if he has to hand the ball to the bullpen.
Tanaka has been lights out this spring and is back on track to start for the Yankees on Opening Day. New York’s lineup should be even more potent than it was a year ago. If the Yankees offense can be more consistent, then a healthy Tanaka could easily reach 13 wins in 2017.
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