To many, the MVP race is a closed book discussion. It’s Russell Westbrook, period. The Oklahoma City Thunder point guard has had an incredible season, one which will end up in the record books. However, if you look at the betting odds, the race is far from over. James Harden of the Houston Rockets has the same odds as Westbrook. And remember that that over the last 16 NBA seasons, the MVP’s team has finished first in its conference 12 times, second place three times and third just once. No MVP has played on a team that finished lower than third in their conference over that span. The Thunder will finish lower than that. With that in mind, here’s a breakdown of the MVP race:
Russell Westbrook
Odds To Win MVP: EVEN
The question of Westbrook or Harden is the one that is on everyone’s minds. On one hand, you’ve got Westbrook, who is approaching the NBA’s All-Time record for triple-doubles in a season. Oscar Robertson had 41, which is a record many people thought would never be broken. Westbrook is already at 35. Even if he doesn’t break the record, what he’s done this season from an individual standpoint has been nothing short of incredible. However, the Thunder are just an average team. They’re in that range for fifth, sixth or seven in the Western Conference standings but they probably aren’t good enough to make much noise in the playoffs. It’s a tough call but these are the things you’re considering if you’re betting on Westbrook.
James Harden
Odds To Win MVP: EVEN
The other option is Harden. Is he putting up triple doubles? Not nearly the way Westbrook is but the man is still averaging 29.4 points, 11.2 assists and 8.1 rebounds per game. It’s not like he’s far off. More importantly, his Rockets have shot up the standings. They’re currently at 49 wins – eight better than the Thunder – and appear to be in position to push the Golden State Warriors in the Western Conference. And looking at some advanced stats, Harden has a better offensive rating than Westbrook, a better defensive rating and a much better effective field goal percentage. There’s a strong case to be made that Harden is the better bet.
Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio Spurs
Odds To Win MVP: +500
San Antonio has closed the gap on Golden State for top spot in the NBA standings. If they find a way to overtake them, Leonard will be thrust in to the MVP spotlight. The veteran wing has averaged 26.0 points, 5.9 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.9 steals and 2.0 three-point shots per game this season. With Tim Duncan retired, LaMarcus Aldridge having missed some time and the Spurs still in contention for the best record in the NBA, it will be hard to ignore Leonard. He is listed at +500 odds right now, so it might be time to take a shot on him as an MVP candidate.
LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers
Odds To Win MVP: +1000
LeBron might not have Westbrook’s overall totals, but he has put up some impressive numbers nonetheless. LeBron has averaged 26.2 points, 8.8 assists and 8.4 rebounds per game. His 37.6 minutes per game is the second-best mark in the NBA behind only Kyle Lowry of the Toronto Raptors. Cleveland is on pace to finish first in the Eastern Conference and if LeBron can lead the way to another title down the stretch it should boost his stock. Oklahoma City’s poor record is the biggest factor working against Westbrook, the Cavaliers’ success could help push LeBron back in to the spotlight. He Is listed at +1000 odds to win the award right now, so there is some good value betting on LeBron to win MVP.
Isaiah Thomas, Boston Celtics
Odds To Win MVP: +1000
Don’t look now but the Celtics have closed the gap on the Cavaliers for top spot in the Eastern Conference. Thomas has been their best player all year and he is an obvious MVP candidate. The sixth-year guard has averaged 29.1 points, 6.0 assists and 2.6 rebounds per game while hitting 3.2 three-point shots per game. Thomas has also recorded career-best marks in field goal and free throw percentage. Boston is still in the mix to catch Cleveland and if they do then Thomas’ MVP stock will receive a tremendous boost. He is listed at +1000 odds to win the award right now, so it might be worth taking a chance on him.
Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
Odds To Win MVP: +4000
The fact that the reigning two-time MVP is actually considered a longshot to win the award for a third year in a row is testament to how much the outlook has changed this season. Curry’s numbers are down from a year ago but he has averaged 24.9 points, 6.3 assists and 4.4 rebounds for the league-leading Warriors. Those are excellent numbers for the best team in the NBA. With Kevin Durant sidelined, Golden State will need Curry to be even better down the final stretch. At +5000 odds, Curry is definitely a strong value pick to win the MVP award.
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