Gonzaga and Xavier will battle for what no team in either of the school histories has done so far – reach the Final Four. While the Bulldogs are supposed to be here, after spending most of the season as the No.1 in the national rankings and losing only a single game all season long, the Musketeers resurrected a so-so season, winning against very tough opposition to reach the Elite Eight.
Place: SAP Center at San Jose
Date/Time: Saturday March 25th, 2017. 6:10 PM ET
TV Coverage: TBS
#1 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. #11 Xavier Musketeers
LINE: Gonzaga -8.5 (-106)
Total: 145.5 points (-105 over, -104 under)
Gonzaga defense shines in a close win
The final sequence of the regional semis between the Gonzaga Bulldogs (35-1) and the West Virginia Mountaineers sums the game the best. The Bulldogs played suffocating defense, switching, contesting and confusing their opponents to the point that the Mountaineers couldn’t get a shot off for the tie before heaving one in despair. Such defensive dedication is a great thing to have when your offense struggles like Gonzaga’s did on Thursday. After leading much of the close game that was tied at intermission, Gonzaga opened up a hefty 8-point lead with a strong start after the break. For the Zags to be up by 8 in a game like this, when points are hard to come by, it must’ve felt like a 20 point lead. However, the Bulldogs’ offense contribution plummeted and they had only 2 points in the next 7 minutes of play to show for. This set up the wild finish where teams traded leads and either one could’ve won it. Zags hit two extremely important threes and wouldn’t let the Mountaineers get one in.
For the game, Gonzaga shot 18-of-44 from the field, but were able to generate 32 free throws, netting only 21 of them (65.6%). Przemek Karnowski was solid inside the paint scoring 13 points and collecting 5 rebounds, while guard Nigel Williams-Goss had an up-and-down game with just 2-of-10 shooting and 5 turnovers, but also team-high 7 boards and 3 steals. The Bulldogs held WVU to just 26.7 percent shooting, but did a poor job limiting their opportunities to just one go, as they allowed 20 offensive rebounds.
Gonzaga defense might be underrated a bit, as they have been able to play it well this entire season. They allow just 61 points per game on 36.5 percent shooting. This compares well with what they have done during the Tournament, but the offense wasn’t able to reproduce the efficiency from the season. Scoring at 68.7 points rate in the postseason is 15 points worse than during the regular part of the season.
The Musketeers take down No.2 Arizona
The Xavier Musketeers (24-13) continue their improbable postseason after knocking off another big favorite, the Arizona Wildcats with 73-71 on Thursday night. The Musketeers stayed together and played their hearts out to edge one of the most potent offenses in the NCAA. It was a close game that would have gone Arizona’s way on most of the days, but Xavier players came big in the clutch to steal it. First half was big for Xavier, despite the fact that they were behind by 2 at the break. They rode their best player Trevon Bluiett and didn’t allow Arizona to get it going offensively. The Musketeers executed better, but were undone by strong offensive rebounding of Arizona. They felt behind by as much as 8 deep in the second half as they were unable to contain Wildcats’ scorer Allonzo Trier, but finished the game on a 9-0 run, keeping Arizona from scoring in the last 3 minutes.
Xavier is a two way team – they can score efficiently and they can defend – which was proven once again against the Wildcats. They’ve shot 53 percent from the field and limited their rivals to just 43.5 percent. Bluiett once again led the Musketeers with 25 points and other two backcourt members did well too. Macura finished with 14 points, 7 rebounds and 5 assists, while Malcolm Bernard added 15 points on just 6 shots from the field, along with 6 boards.
For the season, the Musketeers don’t have impressive point difference – just +4.1, but they’ve endured a tough stretch with injuries. They average 75.1 points per game, allow 71 points and have won 6 of their last 7 games.
#1 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. #11 Xavier Musketeers Game Trends & Prediction
The Gonzaga Bulldogs have failed to cover in postseason, with the last game ending in a push. They are 22-9-2 ATS overall, so you might have expected that the market adjusted and that this is the reason for not getting you the money recently. It’s not. The Bulldogs underperformed so far, playing down to opposition. They were challenged by mediocre teams and were somewhat lucky and somewhat deserving to have an easy path. Xavier is another team they should beat, but only if they return to their old efficient ways. It shows on the total points trend as well – Gonzaga is just 2-6 against the over/under in the last 30 days, bringing their seasonal record to 16-17.
Xavier, on the other side, covered in their last seven games, thriving in the underdog’s role. Their ATS record this season is 18-18, so they are enjoying the best stretch of the season. The last game total points ended in a push and it was the second consecutive time the line was at least reached, after 5 previous unders in a row. They are 16-19-1 for the season against the over/under.
The biggest question reading the opening 8.5 spread set by the books is which Gonzaga team will show up. I’ve backed both teams in the previous round, and the Bulldogs from the start of the Tournament, so there’s no bias. Judging by the current form and the performances that have led to this game, Xavier +8.5 is a welcoming sight. However, keep in mind that it’s just a small sample. Over the course of the season, Gonzaga would have been favored by about 11 points, if not more. Still, I can’t ignore their recent play. The game is unlikely to feature many points, further enlarging the handicap. Xavier won’t allow the Bulldogs to run away with it and are clearly enjoying the tough competition. I’m going with Xavier +8.5 and with under 145.5 points. I suggest you do the same.
My Pick: Xavier +8.5
Total: Under 145.5 points
