The ATP’s Miami Open Masters tournament moves into the semifinals. Roger Federer had to save two match points before surviving against Tomas Berdych in the quarterfinals, while Nick Kyrgios outfought Alexander Zverev in a Thursday night quarterfinal to advance to Friday’s night semifinal. That’s up second from Crandon Park. The first semifinal is the daytime semifinal between Rafael Nadal and Fabio Fognini, in a grudge match which promises fireworks. Here is a look at our tennis picks for Friday where there are just the two semifinals matches on the card (the women’s side is off until Saturday).
Roger Federer vs. Nick Kyrgios
Roger Federer is lucky to be in the semifinals at all – he got lucky against Tomas Berdych after blowing a 5-2 lead in the third set and falling down match points at 6-4 in a final-set tiebreaker. Berdych, however, flinched and couldn’t close out the Swiss, who has reached his first Miami semifinal in six years. It seems that the accumulated tennis of the past few weeks is beginning to take its toll on Federer, who is fighting against the odds in terms of winning Indian Wells and Miami back to back at age 35. Men his age are not supposed to be doing these kinds of things, and so while Federer is on a feel-good streak and had the luck of the moment against Berdych, it could easily run out in the semifinals.
Nick Kyrgios displayed powerful tennis but also a lot of lapses and ill-formed judgments in a long three-set match against fellow Next Generation rival Alexander Zverev in Thursday night’s men’s quarterfinal. The second-set tiebreaker between the two young guns was excellent, but much of the match was erratic. Kyrgios played extremely well at the end of the first set, but he was up and down for most of the evening. His approach shots lacked bite, and he got into an unpleasant exchange with a linesperson after a missed call.
Kyrgios’ tennis is right there with Federer, and the two will be able to meet after Kyrgios withdrew from their scheduled Indian Wells quarterfinal with food poisoning. However, Kyrgios was seen grabbing his left knee late in the Zverev match. It might be nothing, and Kyrgios did finish the match in reasonably good shape, but Federer does not seem as physically compromised as Kyrgios, and being a younger athlete means Kyrgios might not be as sure of his body as he needs to be.
Kyrgios is playing slightly better right now, but he might not be in good enough physical shape to win a three-set match. He will probably need to finish Federer in two, and he isn’t likely to do that.
Pick: Federer in three sets
Rafael Nadal vs. Fabio Fognini
Fognini has become a nemesis for Nadal, splitting the six most recent meetings between the two, including a come-from-behind win at the 2015 U.S. Open. Nadal was 151-0 at major tournaments when winning the first two sets, but Fognini improbably came back from a two-set deficit to fluster the Spaniard. As is well known, Nadal has been going through the roughest part of his career, both in terms of major-tournament success and Masters 1000 prosperity. He hasn’t won a major since the 2014 French Open, and he has won only one Masters event since 2014. It’s not just the failure to win tournaments which has stood out for Nadal. He has made only one major final since the 2014 French Open, and only two Masters finals since 2014. He isn’t guaranteed to go deep into elite tournaments anymore.
The question is: Is Nadal gaining momentum and confidence to the point that he can become the player he was before the 2014 French Open? Maybe. He looked very solid in beating Jack Sock in straight sets in the Miami quarterfinals. He was hitting the ball better with his vintage topspin. He seems increasingly more comfortable on the court.
Fognini bothered Nadal in 2015, winning three of four matches at one point, but Nadal subsequently beat him last spring. The evolution of Nadal’s game suggests he is a different player compared to his worse 2015 version. That’s reason enough to ride with Rafa here.
Pick: Nadal in straight sets
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