It’s only the third day of the German Bundesliga 10-day crunch time during which a total of 27 games will be played, which means that we are just getting started and hopefully by the end of the stretch, the Piggy bank will be loaded… (Fingers crossed)!!! Anyways, one of the two games on the Sunday afternoon Round 26 scheduled if the matchup between the FC Ingolstadt and the 1.FSV Mainz 05. So lets take a look what our expert analysis has to say about it:
FC INGOLSTADT vs. 1.FSV MAINZ 05
3-Way: 1: Ingolstadt +135; X: +237 Draw; Mainz +280
Spread 0.5: Ingolstadt +125; Mainz -130
Total 2.5: Over +125; Under -130
The window is slowly closing down for the hosting FC Ingolstadt, who are ranked 17th with only 19 points to their name, and 8 points behind the 16th spot that could at least give them a slight chance to save their top league status through the qualification round. Usually when a team plays at home, they are considered a slight favorite, regardless who they are going against, only because of the home field and the fan support. In this case, Die Schanzern are the worst home team in the league having won only 9 points in 12 games played at the Audi Sportpark (2W, 3D, 7L), holding a 12-27 goal differential at home.
Over their last 5 games at home, Ingolstadt has won only 4 points (1W, 1D, 3L), most recently pulling a 2:2 draw against Koln. However, manager Maik Walpurgis is certain that his team can improve their points score over the upcoming five games, considering that during the stretch Ingolstadt will face only teams from the bottom part of the table (Mainz, Augsburg, Darmstadt, Wolfsburg and Bremen).
Coach Walpurgis will not be able to count on Hartmann and Tobias Levels who was removed from the first team and assigned to the 2nd team.
On the other side, the Mainz 05 is currently out of the relegation zone and is ranked at the 12th spot on the table with a total of 29 points. The 0-fives pulled a huge upset couple of round ago when they defeated the Bayer Leverkusen at their home turf with 2:0 and the fans thought that their team would use that win to finally get out of their slump and find some consistency. Instead they only played 1:1 against Wolfsburg in the following round, while suffering a huge blow to the bottom ranked Darmstadt with 1:2. The most recent blow came in the previous round, when they suffered a 0:1 loss at home to Schalke 04.
Their road performances dont give too much optimism either, as the 0-fives lost 7 out of their last 8 road games. Out of the 12 games played on the road this season, Mainz 05 has recorded only 3 wins and 1 draw, suffering 8 losses. Scoring is not something that Mainz can be proud of as they have scored only 33 goals and allowed 41. Only 11 goals were scored in their away games, where they also have allowed 22 goals.
Interesting to note is the fact that, although Mainz 05 is battling to stay away from the relegation zone, with a possible win in this game, the 0-fives could even join the battle for the Europa League qualification spot for the next season, which is currently owned by the 6th ranked Koln with 37 points. Bergreen is the only player to miss this game, while Stefan Bell is ready to return to the lineup after sitting out his suspension.
I expect a tough battle in this game on Sunday, probably the toughest of all matchups of the Round 26. Despite the fact that they are 10 points behind the safe zone, the Ingolstadt knows that this games will decided their destiny. They will be highly motivated to win points, and anything other than a win will most likely end their hopes of playing premier soccer next season. However, considering the importance of the match for both teams, I believe that there will not be a lot of goals scored, if any at all, which is why I am going with the under 2.5 goals!
MY PICK: Under 2.5 goals (-130)
