The 4-5 match-ups are usually the most interesting as there’s not much between two seeds, and the Los Angeles Clippers versus the Utah Jazz first round clash certainly fit the description. Both teams have gone 29-12 at home and 22-19 away and won by about 4 points per game. The Jazz won a tough division, while the Clippers feel they could have done more if not for the injuries to Paul and Griffin. It’s the first time the Clippers and the Jazz square off in the postseason in 20 years.
NBA Playoffs: Utah Jazz at Los Angeles Clippers
LINE: LA Clippers -5.5 (-105); moneyline -204
Total: 200 (-108 over, -101 under)
The Utah Jazz potential still unknown
While it helped the Utah Jazz go into the postseason with back-to-back wins over the Warriors and Spurs it didn’t actually help improve their playoff positioning. It doesn’t take away the good feeling as Utah previously missed the playoffs for four consecutive seasons, coming oh-so-close a year ago. Also, the Jazz ended the season about as healthy as they’ve been all season.
How good the Utah Jazz can be when healthy is anybody’s guess. Utah’s planned starting lineup of Hill, Hood, Hayward, Favors, and Gobert has played together 13 times. George Hill played in only 48 games, missing time with injuries to all the body parts you can name in ten seconds. Favors has been in and, mostly, out with a knee issue all year, and is known that he has been playing on one leg. Hood has struggled with ankle and knee injuries. So it came down on how good Hayward and Gobert can be and they both responded big time.
Hayward has taken another step forward, becoming an All Star for the first time and doing everything on the court. He averages 22 points on 47 percent shooting, gets 5.4 rebounds, 3.5 assists in the contract year. Rudy Gobert has put up an incredible season – he is one of the main contenders for the Defensive Player of the Year, and he’s become a load on the offensive end as well. He runs the floor, has good hands and is extremely athletic for a 7 footer.
The Jazz are much more athletic than people credit them. Hill and Exum move their feet and can give different looks while guarding primary ball handlers. Hayward transformed his body to the point that he can even play small ball power-forward. Hood and Johnson are big wings. And Gobert is quick and long, with a perfect discipline and timing. Of course, Diaw and Ingles can’t be fit into athletic players by any mean, but those two can be easily underrated due to their physical look.
The Jazz aren’t quick, but they play at a methodical, old-school tempo, generating the smallest number of possessions per game in the league. They allow just 96.8 points per game, the best mark in the NBA, but not only due to the pace. Utah players allow lowest percentage of the shots inside the arc without fouling much. They also finish their defensive possessions with rebounds, frustrating high octane offenses with limited opportunities to score.
The Utah Jazz score 100.7 points on a decent 46.6 percent shooting. Their free throw percentage could use more work, as they hit on 74 percent of the freebies, good for just 24th in the NBA. Hayward leads the team in points with 21.9, followed by Hill’s 16.9. Gobert with 14 and Hood with 12.7 round up the double digit scorers, but the Jazz have 6 more players scoring at least 6 points per game. They out-rebound the opposition by an average of 3 boards a game as Gobert was 4th in the league with 12.8 rpg.
Utah Jazz have a versatile team, but with Favors unable to play at his level, the Clippers pose a match-up problem with Griffin at the power forward. The Jazz simply can’t counter on this position, so it may come down on how flexible coach Snyder will be with the defensive assignments.
Place: Staples Center, Los Angeles, California
Date/Time: Saturday April 15th, 2017. 10:30 PM ET
TV Coverage: ESPN
LA Clippers hope to change their luck in the postseason
The Los Angeles Clippers (51-31) have much more playoff experience than their counterparts, reaching it in each of the previous five seasons. It’s just that it’s a wrong type of experience. Despite repeatedly deemed as a title contender, the Clippers failed to win more than one series. They took the 2-0 lead by blowing out the Blazers at home last year, only to lose the next four games as the fourth seed last year. It only added some salt on the wound as they’ve disappointed in previous seasons as well. It may not come to haunt them, but the result may still be the same.
The truth is, the Clippers are good, but not great. They did start extremely well, winning 14 of their first 16 games, and have played well too, but once Griffin went down with an injury, their play was never the same again, even after he had recovered. Paul also missed a bunch of games in the middle part of the season, so the Clippers left it late to re-gather the momentum and the invincibility aura they had back in November.
They did finish the season with a nice 10-2 record, the losses coming by a combined 3 points in games they should’ve won too, yet only two of these 10 wins came against competitive teams. The hot streak the home court advantage and they never seem to lack confidence, a thing that shot them in the foot before. It seems as if the Clippers are never giving their maximum, win or lose, and it’s unlikely to change.
The Clippers don’t lack talent. Paul-Redick-Mbah a Moute-Griffin-Jordan is a starting unit few teams would not like to trade for, judging by the sheer potential. However, they tend to ease through the games, settling for a solid where there could be great. Despite having extremely athletic front court, they only play quick when the other teams dictate it. It’s part ability to adjust, but also a lack of team character.
They insisted of making Griffin a superstar and let him do whatever he wants, good or bad. Remind you, they have a HOF-caliber point guard in Paul, as deadly of a shooter as there is in Redick and a top 5 rebounder and leader by FG% in Jordan. Instead, they let Griffin shoot 14.1 two-pointers per game, 9th most in the NBA.
He leads them in points, of course, with 21.6 per game, adding 8 rebounds and 5 assists. Their true leader, Chris Paul, scores 18.1 per game and dishes out 9.2 assists each night, while again getting into the league leaders in steals with almost 2 takeaways per contest. The Clippers have had a prolific sixth-man in Crawford for ages, but the time has finally caught up with him and his 12.3 points per game hide the fact that he was wasting too many possessions and that the second unit actually played better when Austin Rivers or Raymond Felton orchestrated the offense. Unfortunately for the Clippers, Rivers strained his hammy about ten days ago and isn’t a quick healer. He might miss an entire series against Utah.
The Clippers had their way against Utah this season, losing only when Jazz had gone berserk from the three point line (hitting 15-of-21). They managed to win in low scoring, grinding games the Jazz like the most. It’s likely that the playoff series goes the similar way, despite the Clippers average of 213.1 total points per game (108.7-104.4). They need to keep the Jazz off the boards and run to their shooters. But most of all, they need to play with their hearts and not with their reputation.
Utah Jazz at Los Angeles Clippers Game 1 Game Trends & Prediction
Utah Jazz has gone 36-42-4 against the spread and 17-23-1 when away from home. They played below expectations when going against the good teams. Of the 36 games played against the teams above .500, the Utah Jazz covered 15 times. The books have successfully set the total points lines on the Utah Jazz games, so they’ve gone 42-40 against the over/under. More overs are played when they travel, 23-18.
LA Clippers covered in their last three games to improve season record to 40-41-1 ATS. They’ve also managed to beat the spread in five of the last games against the Utah Jazz and generally play their best games against the stronger opposition. Unlike the Jazz, the Clippers achieved a very good 21-14 record versus the above .500 teams. They played more over games this season, 44-37, but mostly when away, 26-15.
The books have set the Clippers as a 5.5 point favorite, just slightly off my personal preference of -5. First games are very important for the home teams and the home court advantage is historically among the highest in the series. The teams don’t change much from the regular season, so there should be no surprises. The total points line has been set at 200, the same as the last time two teams met in Los Angeles three weeks ago. Points tend to drop in the playoffs, so I’m liking the under here.
My Pick: LA Clippers -5.5 (-105)
Total: (Under 201 -106)
