It’s already Game 2 on schedule for the San Antonio Spurs and the Memphis Grizzlies. One day of rest for the players and no time to do so for the coaching staff, after the first game showed the good and the bad sides of both teams. The Spurs presented much more determination and better form, as they overcame a slow start to blow the Grizzlies away in the most lopsided Day 1 victory.
Memphis Grizzlies at San Antonio Spurs Game 2
LINE: San Antonio -10.5 (-105); moneyline -625
Total: 188.5 (-104o, +100)
The lack of depth hurts Grizzlies in the first game
The Memphis Grizzlies can’t be too pleased about the performance they’ve put in the first game in San Antonio Spurs, losing 82-111, but are also experienced enough to know that the margin of victory don’t mean much. It’s a best of four series, so it’s been just one game, no matter how large of a final deficit it was. The thing that does matter is that the Grizzlies don’t seem on par with the Spurs, talent wise. It was already clear that Memphis is short on players who can contribute at this level when they needed to start the veteran Vince Carter as Parsons went down with an injury late in the regular season, but once Tony Allen felt consequences of a hit into his thigh and was unable to play in Game 1 (and possibly in the entire series), the lack of Grizzlies’ depth went from apparent to blinding.
With Carter and Selden starting, the Grizzlies need a perfect performance from their main guys, and the things went well for them as long as Marc Gasol dominated. The Grizzlies have hit their first four three pointers, and Gasol had 25 points by the half time, so Memphis was in the lead after 12 minutes, and in the game at the break. By the time third quarter winded down, they could have hit the showers. Gasol slowed down and Conley was held in check, while Zach Randolph was slow, inefficient and finished with just 3-of-13 shooting and a catastrophic -39 plus/minus.
Memphis is not known as a three point shooting team as 1-of-10 on deep shots simply won’t cut it. The Grizzlies were hurt the most by their bench play, as the reserves struggled to score on consecutive possessions. Their best contributor during the middle part of the season, Daniels, is out of form and was a non-factor. Second unit shot 10-0f-30 and were outscored by 14 by the San Antonio Spurs counterparts. As a team, the Grizzlies shot 39.2 percent from the field and couldn’t help themselves on the offensive glass. On the defense, they played good for about half a quarter.
Once the Spurs started creating good positions and scoring on almost each possession, Memphis players became passive and reactive. They allowed San Antonio to shoot 53.2 percent from the field, including 10-of-19 from the three point range. They had absolutely no clue on how to stop Leonard, who needed only 14 shots to score 32 points before sitting out the final period due to the large lead.
How can Grizzlies adjust to improve on the first game performance is the question for all interested sides, but there aren’t many options. They could try to go with Randolph in the starting five and to go big, but he isn’t as good as he was before and can more easily contribute against the second units. They could also move Conley off the ball, starting Harrison on the second guard position, but it’s also unlikely move as he is their best player and you want the ball in the hands of your best players in the playoffs. Defensively, they’ll probably be more aggressive on the ball with traps and double teams, as they need to move the ball away from Leonard’s hands. They need a mobile unit to achieve this and they once again lack bodies to do so. Fizdale was unable to solve their defensive deficiencies on the small forward spot for the entire season, and it’s unlikely that he’ll find a quick patch now.
Place: AT&T Center, San Antonio, Texas
Date/Time: Monday April 17th, 2017. 9:30 PM ET
TV Coverage: TNT
Spurs use big 3rd quarter to turn Game 1 into a blowout
Everything that the San Antonio Spurs have done this season further reassures Kawhi Leonard that he can lead his team to the championships and the first postseason game should stop any discussion whether he is still ascending or is already shining high on the NBA sky. He is not just a star, he is a constellation. The San Antonio Spurs have beaten the Grizzlies 111-82 behind Leonard’s dominant performance, as he finished with 32 points on a 11-of-14 shooting, matching his postseason career-high despite enjoying his time on the bench during the entire fourth quarter. But the Spurs have also proved that they are much more than just Leonard.
Parker found a fountain of youth to score 18 points in 22 minutes, Aldridge added 20 of his own and the bench built on the starters output by playing together on both sides of the court. Popovich showed his value by placing a good defensive plan to limit Conley’s impact and adjusting at halftime to slow down Gasol. The Spurs played to their strengths and made Grizzlies look like a mellow team, not a grinding one they take pride in. But it was Leonard who won the game for the hosts. After a fairly evenly matched first half, the San Antonio Spurs star forward imposed his will in the third. He matched the entire Memphis points output with 15 and constantly broke down the Grizzlies defense by penetrating the paint. It opened up the shots for his teammates as well and his energy translated on the defensive side. The Spurs held their rivals to just 29.4 percent shooting in the third and grabbed 16 rebounds in the quarter compared to Memphis 4.
One decision will the San Antonio Spurs need to make. Will they stick with Dedmon in the lineup as he struggles with Gasol’s outside play or try to match him up with Zach Randolph off the bench. They have options with Pau Gasol and Lee so they can show different looks on the defense, like they did in the previous game. Still, slow start is not what teams like and the Spurs would rather avoid repeating that part of the previous game played.
Memphis Grizzlies at San Antonio Spurs Game 1 Game Trends & Prediction
Memphis failed to cover in the first game in San Antonio. The punters looked to trust them and changed the initial spread, before the news on Allen missing the game pushed it back up. This was the first time that they failed to cover against the first round foe. The game was also an over compared to the closing line that was lowered by money play. The Grizzlies do pay off on away overs where they are 24-17 this season. Allen’s unavailability should also be counted toward increase in the total points, albeit not as much as in the previous seasons, as the veteran guard’s defensive ability decreased this year. Overall, the Grizzlies are 39-41-3 against the total points spread.
The blowout win reminds of the previous season playoffs when the Spurs handed big defeats to the Grizzlies. Also, they don’t oscillate much between games when they figure an opponent out, and it seems to be the case here. However, it should be noted that they led by 10 with two minutes to go in the third, before going on a 19-0 run that spanned two quarters. Over is a bit more frequent on Spurs games – they went 44-37 over the course of the season.
I’m not a big fan of a zig-zag theory in general and this match-up is going in other direction. After looking much the better team on Saturday, the Spurs are now even a bigger favorite than in the first game. The spread is set at -10.5, showing a large difference between the teams. It’s a proper adjustment by the books as they clearly recognized that the Grizzlies can’t do much to improve their chances drastically. However, Game 2 generally shows a decrease in home court advantage, as the visitors are more used to the environment and the fans are more lulled with a 1-0 lead, so my fair number on Spurs is -9.5 this time. After having Spurs in the first game due to the early value, I’ll be looking for a Memphis bet this time, with an extra value closer to the game. The total has been lowered due to almost one-sided line movement in the first game, but taking in consideration that the Grizzlies have by now adjusted a bit to the environment and the court, I think that the Total could be topped.
My Pick: Memphis +10.5 (+106)
Total: Over 188.5 points (-104)
