NBA Preview: Blake Griffin and the Clippers need to show up and play four good quarters against Utah on Tuesday night.
#5 Utah Jazz (52-31) vs. #4 Los Angeles Clippers (51-32).
Line: Clippers -9. Total 195.5.
Series: Jazz lead 1-0.
Utah’s Rudy Gobert injured his left knee during the opening possession of Game 1. The boxscore says Gobert played 17 seconds. Not true. He was laying on the court unable to move for almost 10 of those seconds. Gobert did not return to the game after he was diagnosed with a hyperextension and bone bruise in his left knee. He will not play in Game 2.
The injury left a huge void for the Jazz to fill because Gobert is one of the top candidates for NBA Defensive Player of the Year. However, there was still a game to play and Utah needed someone to step up with Gobert out.
The Jazz found two players to step up big on Saturday night. Derrick Favors and Joe Johnson both average a little less than 24 minutes and just over 9 points per game this season. Both reserves played over 31 minutes and combined to score 36 points. Johnson scored the two biggest points of the game with a floater over DeAndre Jordan at the buzzer to lift the Jazz to a thrilling 97-95 win over the Clippers in Game 1.
Johnson, the 16-year veteran, led the Jazz with 21 points off the bench. Favors finished with 15 points. The two reserves combined to shoot 16-for-24 (66.7%) from the field in Game 1.
Blake Griffin led all scorers with 26 points for the Clippers. However, he struggled again in the fourth quarter, scoring just two points on a pair of free throws. Griffin’s fourth quarter woes this season were well documented during the ESPN telecast. Chris Paul scored 25 points, dished out 11 assists, grabbed 7 rebounds and added 3 steals for Los Angeles.
I do not expect Utah coach Quin Snyder to change the rotations much from Game 1 as he will probably start Favors in place of the injured Gobert. Favors entered Saturday’s game after Gobert got hurt. As the saying goes, “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it”. However, I simply do not expect Johnson and Favors to repeat their stellar performances from Game 1.
From a handicapping perspective, when an underdog upsets a higher seed in Game 1 of a series, the favorite usually bounces back to win Game 2. Vegas has established the Clippers as 9-point chalk for Tuesday’s game, which seems steep, even with Gobert out. However, the Clippers will be playing with a sense of urgency in Game 2. Los Angeles is in bounce-back mode while the Jazz are in let-down mode.
The Clippers will win this game. More importantly, though, will they cover those 9 points? I have been an underdog player for a long time in the NBA. I will seldom give 9 points on a play in the postseason. However, this situational spot calls for it.
The Clips are well known for giving up big leads at home. That fact worries me a little, but this is a must-win situation against a team they have owned in recent years. The Clips are 18-3 straight up in their last 21 games against Utah. Of course, the Jazz have won 2 out of their last 3 meetings. However, this smells like a blowout to me.
Utah rose up in Game 1 without Gobert, but rising up like that is hard to maintain. I already mentioned that I do not see Joe Johnson coming up big for a second consecutive game for the Jazz. I do see the Clippers getting a double-digit lead and keeping their foot on the pedal. Los Angeles needs to see Griffin have four strong quarters. The Clips cannot afford to take their foot off the gas once they get a lead in the playoffs at home in a must-win game.
A big bounce-back spot versus a big let-down spot is a situational spot that I like to play. In fact, this situational spot applies to all three games on the slate tonight. The higher seed lost to the lower seed in every Game 1 for these three games. I feel the Clippers are the favorite who has the best chance out of these three games to cover the spread.
The public does not agree with me. According to pregame.com at the time this article is being published, the number of bets placed on the teams playing Tuesday night breaks down like this:
Milwaukee Bucks 69%.
Utah Jazz 58%.
Chicago Bulls 51%.
Boston Celtics 49%.
Los Angeles Clippers 42%.
Toronto Raptors 31%.
There is a brewers7 NBA handicapping theory that states: “The general public does not perform well betting underdogs. Therefore, you fade the public in games where the public is betting an underdog heavily”.
These are not automatic plays for me. I take other factors into consideration. Notice that I am not making a play on Toronto tonight, as fading the Bucks is clearly a play that fits my theory even better then fading Utah.
I am not betting Toronto because of their first-round struggles in the playoffs in recent years. I also feel they have not played together long enough with the rotations they have coming into the postseason. The Raptors’ starting five for the playoffs have only played together four times before tonight’s game. Serge Ibaka and PJ Tucker were picked up at the trade deadline while Kyle Lowry was sidelined after wrist surgery. Lowry returned with four games remaining in the regular season. Coach Dwane Casey has only used this starting lineup in four of the five games since Lowry returned.
I ended the regular season with a 5-7 record my last 12 plays. Hopefully the playoffs will be more fruitful than that bad stretch.
My pick:
Los Angeles Clippers -9, laying $110 to win $100 (1 unit, normal play).
Good luck.
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