Round 30 of the German Bundesliga will be played over the weekend and as usual, we have prepared some double match analysis for you. Here, we will cover the game that will be played in Ingolstadt between host and SV Werder Bremen, and the game at Allianz Arena between leaders Bayern Munich and FSV Mainz 05. It’s money earning time so let’s take a closer look.
INGOLSTADT FC vs. SV WERDER BREMEN
3-Way: 1: Ingolstadt +134; X: +266 Draw; 2: SV Werder Bremen +240
Spread -0.5: Ingolstadt +129; Werder Bremen -137
Total +2.5: Over -128; Under +127
INGOLSTADT FC
The Ingolstadt FC is fighting for survival in the German Bundesliga and it’s not looking good at the moment. Currently they rank 17th with 28 points in 29 games and they are four points below the relegation line. There are five more rounds before the end and the home games for the team are a must win if they want to have any chances of seeing top teams as the opponents in the league next season. The team is 3-1-4 in last eight games and they are 2-1-1 in last four home games. Ingolstadt is the worst host this season with 4-3-7 home record and 15 of 42 possible points earned.
Their goal difference is 17-24 at home (31-50 overall) and most common result at home is a 0:2 loss (occurred five times). They’ve conceded at least one goal in each of their last eight matches and they’ve conceded at least one goal in 93% of their home matches including at least one goal in each of their last 7 home games. Team’s top scorer is Almog Cohen with seven goals while Dario Lezcano and Markus Suttner have four each in their accounts. Suttner is also the team’s leading assister while passing segment belongs to Pascal Gross who collected 944 total passes so far.
Romain Bregerie (suspension), Marvin Matip (suspension) and Markus Suttner (suspension) are all out for the Saturday game. Moritz Hartmann (thigh) is out for the season while Martin Hansen (Illness) is doubtful.
SV WERDER BREMEN
The SV Werder Bremen is in a streak of nine undefeated games in the German Bundesliga that started in mid February and after being unsure about their survival they are now in the position to fight for one of the spots that lead to the European competitions next year. The team currently ranks eighth with 39 points in 29 games and they have only two points less than Freiburg that is ranked in the spot that provides European football next season. Bremen is 6-2-0 in last eight games and 2-2-0 in last four road matches.
Their road record is 4-5-5 with 23-30 goal difference (46-49 overall) and they rank fifth in the away league table with 17 of 42 possible points earned. 71% of their away matches are over 2.5 goal and 64% of their road games are over 3.5 goals in total. Werder have scored in each of their last 13 away matches and 29% of those matches were over 4.5 goals in total. Most common result on the road is a 2:2 draw (occurred three times). Serge Gnabry tops the team in scoring this season with 10 goals while Max Kruse has nine in his account. Midfielder Zlatko Junuzovic is the team’s leading assister with five while Kruse and Fin Bartels collected four assists each. Niklas Moisander tops the passing segment with 828 total passes.
Zlatko Junuzovic (suspension) is unavailable for the next match while Luca Caldirola (foot), Clemens Fritz (ankle) and Eric Oelschlagel (elbow) are all out for the season. Izet Hajrovic (cruciate ligament) is set for the return in early May while Ludovic Sane (Illness) and Max Kruse (foot) are listed as doubtful. Santiago Garcia (neck), Thomas Delaney (muscle) should be back in few days while Johannes Eggestein’s (Illness, foot) status is unknown.
Both teams will be without some important players and it will be interesting to see how they adapt. I would go here with under 2.5 goals as a little upset because of the importance of the game and all the missing pieces in both teams.
MY PICK: Under 2.5 goals (+127)
BAYERN MUNICH FC vs. FSV MAINZ 05
3-Way: 1: Bayern Munich FC -455; X: +695 Draw; 2: FSV Mainz 05 +1800
Spread -2: Bayern Munich +104; FSV Mainz -101
Total +3.5: Over +124; Under -127
FC BAYERN MUNICH
The Bayern Munich FC were eliminated by Real Madrid in the Champions League quarterfinals on Tuesday and it is the first time in the last five years that the team hasn’t managed to reach the semifinals in this competition. In the German Bundesliga, they are alone on the top with 69 points in 29 games with eight points advantage over the second ranked RB Leipzig and 15 points advantage over the third ranked Hoffenheim.
Another title is almost certain but it’s still not the time to be relaxed. They top the league in almost every statistical segment and they are undefeated at home this season with 11-3-0 record. Their goal difference in front of their own crowd is 48-6 (71-15 overall) and they rank second in the home league table with 34 of 42 possible points earned.
Bayern is 6-1-1 in the last eight games of the German Bundesliga and they are 4-0-0 in the last four home matches. 71% of Bayern’s matches at home are over 2.5 goals and 43% of their home games are over 3.5 goals in total. They’ve scored at least one goal in every home game this season and 36% of those matches were over 4.5 goals in total. Most common results at home are 3:0 win and 1:1 draw (both occurred three times).
Robert Lewandowski tops the team and the German Bundesliga in scoring with 26 goals while Arjen Robben has nine in his account. Thomas Muller is the top assister with 10 so far while Franck Ribery collected nine. Thiago Alcantara and Javi Martinez top the passing segment with 2085 and 1665 total passes.
Manuel Neuer (broken foot) is out for the season while Javi Matinez’s (thigh) status is unknown.
FSV MAINZ 05
The FSV Mainz 05 is in a danger zone as they currently rank 16th with the same number of points as FC Augsburg, the team that is below the relegation line at the moment (32). Battle for survival will be very hard having in mind the remaining schedule for the team but they do have a good chance of seeing the top German Bundesliga soccer next season. If they can get any kind of positive result in Munich this weekend it would have the enormous impact on the both the players and the fans so they should be pumped up on Saturday.
Nevertheless, the recent form is not promising as they are 2-1-5 in last eight games of the German Bundesliga and 1-0-3 in last four away matches. They are coming off from a home win over Hertha that snapped the five games losing streak and there might be some positive momentum going on. They are 3-1-10 on the road this season with 12-25 goal difference (37-47 overall) and they rank 15th in the road league table with 10 of 42 possible points earned. Most common result on the road is a 2-1 loss (occurred four times).
Yunus Malli tops the team in scoring with seven goals while Levin Oztunali has five in his account. These two players also top the team in assists as Malli collected eight and Oztunali collected five so far. Passing segment is controlled by defenders Giulio Donati and Stefan Bell with 946 and 795 total passes.
Geatan Bussman (groin) is expected to be back in late April while Jean-Philippe Gbamin (thigh), Jairo Samperio Bustara (unknown), Karim Onisiwo (back), Jhon Cordoba (thigh) and Marin Sverko (muscle) are all listed as doubtful. Levin Oztunali’s (knee) status is unknown while Florian Muller (groin) is day to day. Emil Berggreen (cruciate ligament) is back in training.
Anything but the win by Bayern would be a big upset but they might still be a little drowsy from the mid week CL exit. Mainz needs the points and they have nothing to lose. I would go here with at least one goal scored by both teams.
MY PICK: Both teams score YES (+129)
