NBA Preview: The Zig-Zag Theory is in play for 2 playoff games on Saturday, April 22. The Wizards vs the Hawks, Game 3 and the Spurs vs the Grizzlies, Game 4.
The NBA Zig-Zag Theory is well known in betting circles. This theory can also be used in the NHL. The Zig-Zag Theory in its purest form is a playoff system where you select a team that lost their previous game to win their next game. It really is that simple.
I have utilized this theory for more than two decades. However, I do not use this theory in its purest form. There are adjustments and modifications to my Zig-Zag Theory. For instance, when the higher seed wins Game 1 of a series, I do not automatically take the lower seed to win or cover Game 2. I look at other factors on a game-to-game and series-to-series basis.
For instance, when Atlanta lost Game 1 of this series, I did not take them in Game 2 because of how strong a home team the Wizards have been after their slow start to the season. Washington had won 26 of their last 31 home games before Game 2. So I picked the Wizards to win and cover the spread in Game 2. That is an adjustment.
I will sometimes wait for a home favorite to win the first two games of a series and then take the team down 0-2 in Game 3 as they travel back home. That is an example of a modification of mine to the Zig-Zag Theory. An example of this modification was waiting for Memphis to lose two games at San Antonio before taking them in Game 3 because of how they lost Game 2.
However, I do not follow these modifications blindly, either. Every adjustment and every modification is on a case-by-case basis.
Vegas Sportsbooks are well aware of the NBA Zig-Zag Theory. Lines have gone up steadily over the years and especially the last couple of years for these playoff zig-zag situations. This is making it tougher for bettors to win in these spots because the home team who lost Game 1 the previous game is having trouble covering the bigger point spreads in Game 2.
A great example of this took place on Tuesday, April 18. We had three home teams down 1-0 for Game 2. All three of these home teams were dealing with inflated lines and none of these teams covered the Vegas number despite two of the teams winning their games. Toronto beat Milwaukee 106-100 but failed to cover the 8-point spread. The Clippers won 99-91 but failed to cover their 9-point spread. Boston lost 111-97 as a 7.5-point favorite.
A couple of years ago, that Vegas line for the Clippers’ game against the Jazz would have been 7 or 7.5 and not 8.5 or 9. The Vegas line for the Milwaukee versus Toronto game would have been about 6 compared to the 8 it went off at.
Class dismissed for the Cliff Notes’ version of the NBA Zig-Zag Theory. Now on to Saturday’s playoff action.
#4 Washington Wizards (51-33) at #5 Atlanta Hawks (43-41), Saturday, 5:30 p.m. EST
Line: Hawks -3. Total 209.5.
Series: Wizards 2-0.
Atlanta 0-18 when trailing 2-0 in a playoff series and it is very likely they will be 0-19 after this series is over. However, my focus is on prognosticating the outcome for Saturday’s game.
The Wizards have won five straight games against the Hawks this season including the playoffs. Four of those games were at the Verizon Center, the Wizards’ home court. Washington was 4-1 ATS (Against The Spread) in those five games.
Wizards’ point guard John Wall has stepped it up in the postseason. Wall has averaged 32 points per game (PPG), 11.5 assists per game (APG) and 4.5 rebounds per game (RPG) through the first two games. Bradley Beal has scored 26.5 PPG, dished out 3 APG and grabbed 2.5 RPG, while Marcin Gortat has 14 PPG and 10 RPG. Markieff Morris had 21 points, 2 assists and 7 rebounds in Game 1, before scoring just 3 points in Game 2 due to only playing 20 minutes because he was in foul trouble most of the game.
Washington was strong at home all season, with a 32-11 record. Despite that lofty home record, the Wizards barely covered the spread against Atlanta in those two home playoff games against the Hawks. Washington is just 19-22 on the road this season.
The Hawks were playing well coming into the playoffs. Atlanta won four straight games before giving away the regular season finale against Indiana. I like the Hawks to get the win and cover the small Vegas number.
My pick:
Atlanta Hawks -3, laying $110 to win $100 (1 unit, normal play).
Good luck.
#7 Memphis Grizzlies (44-41) vs. #2 San Antonio Spurs (63-22), Saturday, 8 p.m. EST
Line: Spurs -3.5. Total 187.5.
Series: Spurs 2-1.
For this game. I will use the Zig-Zag Theory in its purest form.
The Grizzlies destroyed San Antonio on Thursday 105-94, although the final score was not indicative of how they dominated the game. Memphis led by 18 going into the fourth quarter. The emotional win kept the Grizzlies alive in this series.
It was an emotional win because the Spurs had taken Memphis to the wood shed for a 60-minute stretch at the AT&T Center during Games 1 and 2. Memphis lead 28-15 with two minutes left in the first quarter of Game 1. The Spurs outscored them 152-84 over the next 60 minutes of the series, until there was two minutes left in the second quarter of Game 2. San Antonio outscored the Grizzlies by 68 points during that timeframe.
The Grizzlies did fight back in Game 2 and cut a 26-point deficit down to four points in the third quarter. However, that was as close as they would get as the Spurs won 96-82 to take a 2-0 series lead.
Memphis head coach David Fizdale blasted the referees in the post-game press conference. He complained about the lop-sided amount of fouls called against his team. Fizdale did have the numbers to back up his claim and at the end of his rant, he said, “Take that for data”. That clip was shown over and over again on ESPN SportsCenter and the NBA Channel for almost 24 hours. Fizdale was fined $30,000 by the league for his remarks.
However, there was a lot of truth to the data Fizdale spoke about during his emotional press conference. This seemed to fire up Memphis for Game 3 as they played hard, determined and with a lot of emotion. Mike Conley scored 24 points and dished out 8 assists, while Marc Gasol scored 21 points and added 6 rebounds.
The win snapped a 10-game playoff losing streak to San Antonio. Fizdale inserted Zach Randolph and James Ennis in to the starting lineup to replace Wayne Selden and JaMychal Green. Both players responded well as Randolph scored 21 points and grabbed 8 rebounds, while Ennis had 12 points for the Grizzlies.
The Spurs looked flatter than a pancake as their bench outscored their starters 52-42. Kawhi Leonard was held to 18 points and veteran point guard Tony Parker did not score a point in 19 minutes of play for San Antonio.
How long can this emotional wave last for the Grizzlies? Memphis is still without Tony Allen and their margin for error to win games in this series is small. The Spurs are going to bounce back from this loss. Coach Gregg Popovich will make adjustments before Game 4 for the lineup changes Memphis made for Game 3.
Look for the Zig-Zag Theory to strike again as I like the Spurs to put a stranglehold on the series with a Game 4 win.
My pick:
San Antonio Spurs -3.5, laying $110 to win $100 (1 unit, normal play).
Good luck.
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