NHL Playoff Predictions: April 27th

Today is Eastern Conference day. Let’s take a look at our NHL playoff predictions.

Here are tonight’s starting goaltenders, courtesy of LeftWingLock.

Rangers vs Senators: Both teams have their fair share of momentum heading into this series. The Rangers have won three games in a row now to finish off the Montreal Canadiens, while the Senators are coming off an emotional overtime victory to put away the Bruins.

In the regular season, these two teams met three times with the Senators getting the best of the Rangers twice. In the Rangers’ lone win, they had to come from behind to undo a disastrous start to the game.

Ottawa’s neutral zone trap is going to be tough to crack. When the Rangers are lulled into a conservative 1-3-1 style of play, they seem to lose their sense of creativity. The challenge will be for the Rangers forwards who started off slow this postseason that they rely on for their playmaking. Primarily, they will need more of an offensive presence from Kevin Hayes, J.T. Miller and Chris Kreider.

Of course, the matchup that everyone will be talking about is Mika Zibanejad vs Derick Brassard. Zibanejad had the better regular season, but Brassard has doubled Zibanejad’s playoff scoring so far. Both players lead their respective teams in postseason points.

Mats Zuccarello will be another player to watch in tonight’s matchup. Zuccarello had a pair of goals to seal a series-clinching victory for the Rangers in Game 6 against Montreal. He only got better as the series wore on. If the Rangers are to look for ingenuity, they needn’t look further than their diminutive Norwegian.

Speaking of improving over time, Craig Anderson picked up his play towards the end of the Boston series. Anderson is prone to mistakes and is far from the caliber of goaltender that Henrik Lundqvist is. With that said, he is going to be sheltered by the defensive system in front of him. So long as Ottawa keeps getting timely saves, they will steal games.

This is going to be a low-scoring series, generally. The under is usually a safe bet between these two teams to begin with. Factor in how the Rangers always seem to play low-scoring games in the playoffs and we have ourselves a stone-cold under play tonight.

The home team has won four of the last five meetings between these two teams. With that said, the Rangers have a pretty good record in Game 1 across the board. While I anticipate them splitting the two games in Ottawa, I expect the Rangers to come out of the gate hot tonight.

Prediction: Take the Rangers to win tonight. Play the under.

Penguins vs Capitals: As I said in my series preview, I am of the belief that this series is going to be shorter than people think, mostly because I see the Penguins being undefeated on their home ice. The only team better in their own building in the 2016-2017 regular season was the Washington Capitals.

Like the Ottawa series, I anticipate these two teams splitting the opening two games in D.C. The Capitals have not played their best hockey to date, and the Penguins are more rested having dispatched the Blue Jackets in just five games.

Pittsburgh will likely be getting Chris Kunitz back in their lineup tonight, providing a much-needed scoring threat to their fourth line. Carl Hagelin will not play tonight, but his return seems imminent. He is practicing with the team.

The Capitals will need to dominate 5-on-5 play if they are going to stake their claim to this series. Pittsburgh is simply too good at generating high-danger chances. Washington needs to wear them down with quantity and take advantage of the fact that it is Marc-Andre Fleury, and not Matt Murray, in goal. If the Capitals can pepper the Penguins with shot attempts and apply pressure in the attacking zone, they will be able to control the pace of play.

The moment this game becomes a track meet, the Penguins have won.

Pittsburgh is objectively a faster team. Perhaps the best example would be the 8-7 slugfest in January earlier this season. Both teams were scoring at will, but it was the Pittsburgh Penguins who were creating more odd-man rushes and getting to the dangerous areas at a higher frequency. Washington will need to take care of the puck in the neutral zone so as to prevent any breakaway or rush attempts from guys like Sidney Crosby or Phil Kessel. Even Jake Guentzel or Conor Sheary are legitimate threats on the rush.

Pittsburgh and Washington have a storied playoff history, and not just in the Ovechkin-Crosby era. In the Capitals’ franchise, they have met with the Penguins nine times in the postseason. The Penguins have eliminated them in eight of those series. The one time the Caps bested the Penguins was in 1993-94. Washington lost to the eventual champion New York Rangers in the second round.

Alex Ovechkin is 31. Sidney Crosby is 29. They still have lots of hockey left in their careers, but both are on teams that are built to win the Stanley Cup right now. In the present. Both are thinking, “this is the year.”

Here’s the thing. The Capitals have been thinking “this is the year” for almost a decade now. They have missed the playoffs just once in the last 10 years. Nine of their 14 playoff series have gone to seven games. Their record in Game 7s? Three wins, six losses.

It’s been a decade of “can’t win the big one” storylines for Alex Ovechkin and company. How many more times can they fall just short before something in them snaps? Do they ever get that moment of redemption? Like John Elway or Peyton Manning? Or to a certain extent, Ray Borque?

I expect them to feel the heat and come out punching in the opening matchup.

As for the rest of the series? Well, you’ve read my series preview. We’ll cross that bridge when we get to it.

Prediction: Take the Capitals to win Game 1. Play the over.

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