We may only have one game tonight, but it’s a good one. Capitals-Penguins. Let’s do this. Here are tonight’s NHL playoff predictions.
| Capitals vs Penguins ML +105 / -125 O/U 5.5 |
Here are tonight’s starting goaltenders, courtesy of LeftWingLock.
After the Washington Capitals lost a heartbreaker in Game 1, they needed to rebound to get back in the series. Their play in the first game was fine, by most measures. They held the shot-attempt advantage but were burned by the Penguins’ speed and ability to create odd-man rushes and breakaways out of seemingly nowhere. If they tighten up defensively, they could be able to even up the series on home ice.
About that…
An offensive zone face-off on the man advantage somehow turned into a shorthanded breakaway and a goal for the Pittsburgh Penguins. Kevin Shattenkirk’s shot from the center of the blueline was blocked by Matt Cullen. On the subsequent chase for the puck, Cullen whacked the puck away from Shattenkirk, shouldered the defenseman off the puck and broke away two strides ahead of him.
Shattenkirk was muscled off the puck and beaten down the ice by a forward 12 years his elder. That’s impressive.
The Capitals’ powerplay redeemed themselves though by an equally embarrassing powerplay goal just a minute later. Washington drew all four Pittsburgh penalty killers to the boards, leaving Matt Niskanen open.
Like, really open.
Reeeeeaaaaally open.
The Penguins struck again in the second thanks to (surprise!) Sidney Crosby entering the zone and dancing around Capital defensemen like traffic cones. Crosby waltzed around Matt Niskanen and found a streaking Phil Kessel, who buried a wrist shot past Braden Holtby. Pittsburgh would score once again before the period was over. This time, Crosby blocked a shot then pushed the puck ahead to spring Jake Guentzel and Bryan Rust for a 2-on-1. Guentzel would take it himself to make it 3-1.
Barry Trotz sent a message to his team by pulling Braden Holtby for the third period. That marked the second time in three games against the Penguins that Holtby had been pulled. Philipp Grubauer would patrol the crease for the final frame. It did not have the proper effect on the team.
Kessel tallied a powerplay goal early in the third that snuck through the cold goaltender’s wickets. Though Washington would answer back just over a minute later, Evgeni Malkin plunged the dagger with the Penguins fifth goal of the day moments later. Guentzel would add an empty netter to cap off a 6-2 rout.
That empty netter also gave Guentzel the NHL lead in playoff goals with seven. Malkin still leads with 10 assists and 13 points. Phil Kessel is tied for the league lead in plus-minus at +9. Five Pittsburgh forwards had multi-point nights in Game 2, with Guentzel and Kessel notching three and Malkin, Crosby and Cullen grabbing two.
Not to be lost in the shuffle, Marc-Andre Fleury stopped 34 of 36 shots on goal. The Penguins were once again outshot, but again capitalized on their ability to generate high-danger chances out of nothing.
Washington reportedly held a team meeting immediately following the game. Players were very tight lipped about what was discussed, though it is said Nick Backstrom was apparently the one who spoke up.
The Capitals’ depth scoring has evaporated. Andre Burakovsky has been very good at generating shots and getting scoring chances, but just can’t seem to hit the net to save his life. Lars Eller has gone dead silent. Tom Wilson and Brett Connolly, who have swapped places on the third and fourth line, have not offered much. Perhaps a reunion of Connolly with Eller and Burakovsky would help given their dominant possession numbers as a line, but possession is not the issue for the Capitals this series. It’s conversion.
All Swedish and no Finnish, as the saying goes.
Trotz says Holtby starts Game 3. "Absolutely, why would you think otherwise? No question he's our goaltender. Expect him to start tomorrow."
— Stephen Whyno (@SWhyno) April 30, 2017
Braden Holtby will start Game 3. Trotz played coy following Game 2, but really how could it not be? Pulling him for Grubauer was pretty unfair to begin with. While it is true that Holtby could be playing a lot better, a cold goaltender facing a team that gets high-danger chances at will in the playoffs is just asking for trouble.
Carl Hagelin made his return to the Pittsburgh lineup in Game 2. He played just over 11 minutes, including a minute of penalty kill time (he’s the one in open ice on the Niskanen goal above). He was serviceable but nothing special. It will take him a while to get back into the swing of things which is fine given the position his team is in.
Chris Kunitz played over 13 minutes including 3:14 of penalty kill time.
I had written in my series preview that I believe that the Pittsburgh Penguins will not lose at home in this series. If that were to hold true, that would mean that this series would end in a four-game sweep. Startling yes, but not out of the question. I had called this series only going five games, after all.
But blowout games often serve as a wakeup call. Just look at the Edmonton Oilers, who overcame a 7-0 trouncing at the hands of the San Jose Sharks to win the next two and move on the second round. There are enough veterans and fiery personalities in the Capitals’ room for them to rebound and make some noise in Pennsylvania.
Expect Washington to come out of the gate firing. Anticipate Alex Ovechkin’s line being the most dangerous it has ever been. Be on the lookout for hard hits and prime scoring chances.
But at the end of the day, watch the scoreboard. Because I still believe the Pittsburgh Penguins will have the higher number there when all is said and done.
The Capitals have lost their last six games in Pittsburgh. The home team is 8-2 in the last 10 encounters between these two teams.
Oh, and if it was not clear already, you should probably take the over. The over is 5-1-1 in the last seven matchups.
Prediction: Take the Pittsburgh Penguins to pull ahead 3-0 in the series tonight. Play the over.
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