The Boston Celtics have won five games in a row, but the streak will need to carry on if they are looking to put themselves in good spot in the Eastern Conference Semifinal series against the Washington Wizards. The Wizards may have lost the Game 1, but can draw plenty of positives from it and will look to put together more complete game on Tuesday in the TD Garden.
Washington Wizards at Boston Celtics
LINE: Boston -4.5 (-118); moneyline -196
Total: 218.5 (-103 over, -105 under)
Washington starts well, but can’t hold the lead
The Washington Wizards lost to the Celtics 123-111 in Game 1. It was a highly entertaining game for the fans, as two teams traded punches in high-octane shooting match. The Wizards jumped to a 16-0 lead and would hold the lead until the second half, but couldn’t keep up with the Boston Celtics scoring and ultimately succumbed to the pressure. The defense was bad, as it usually is with the Wizards, and one shouldn’t look for more causes for the loss, but another thing played a big role in the turnaround. Markieff Morris rolled his ankle badly in the second quarter and was unable to play after the break, leaving Washington, already short on bigs, without an important piece.
This triggered more small ball than usual and the Wizards lost the early rebounding edge. But most importantly, playing spot-up shooter Oubre allowed the Celtics to hide Thomas on him and rest on defense, and it showed on the other side of the court. Washington they tended to overprotect the paint, leaving the Boston Celtics shooters wide open. They couldn’t stop Thomas – Horford pick and roll in the second half and stayed in the game by their own good shooting. While the Celtics managed to assert their good habits, the Wizards did not.
They were unable to get in transition and John Wall was not aggressive enough. He tried to thread a needle on his passes without working to create good angles and while he impressed on some, he also committed 8 turnovers, many of them in the crucial third quarter. He played a solid game, finishing with 20 points and 16 assists, but he didn’t put enough of a pressure on the Celtics defenders and was not contributing on the defensive end.
The Wizards shot very well the entire game. They hit 50.6 percent of their field goal attempts and were 10-of-23 from the three point line. They did suffer on free throws, missing 9 of 22, but it was still a good day offensively. Beal led the scoring with 27 points and four 3-pointers. Gortat was great in the first half, but got tired down the stretch as the Wizards had nobody to replace him. He had 16 points, 13 rebounds (8 offensive) and 4 assists. Porter was good as well, taking more responsibility after Beal attracted extra attention, Wall playing stagnant and Morris icing the ankle. He contributed with 16 points and 11 rebounds. The problem was, as it always is, the play after the starting unit. Oubre and Bogdanovic took turns replacing absent Morris, and it’s hard to judge on who hurt them more. Oubre finished with -22 in plus/minutes, the worst mark in Game 1 by far, while Bogdanovic was plain terrible.
The Celtics have attacked him on defense no matter where he was placed – in the post, on the back screens, in the pick and roll. Not once was he able to make a stop. He also had some poor shots in the first half, before hitting a pair of consecutive threes late. As Morris’ status is still uncertain, the Wizards are in big trouble with those two players and might want to insert Jason Smith for the more traditional lineup. The problem is, Smith is their only backup big as Mahinmi is already ruled out for this game, so the fans better keep their fingers crossed that Morris plays on Wednesday.
Place: TD Garden, Boston, Massachusetts
Date/Time: Tuesday May 2nd, 2017. 8:00 PM ET
TV Coverage: TNT
Boston Celtics tie franchise playoff record in three-point makes to take Game 1
After a disappointing start of the first round series that saw the Celtics lose both games in Boston, the number one seed in the East was looking to start the new series much better. Not scoring for the first five minutes of the game and falling back 0-16 certainly doesn’t fall in that category, but they managed to turn the game around and take the 1-0 lead they craved for. The did it from the deep, hitting 19 three pointers in the game, and by quick realization on where each team’s strengths and flaws are, shaping the game to fit them more.
Isaiah Thomas may have lost a tooth but found his shooting touch, hitting 5 threes en route to a 33 point, 9 assist performance. He smartly operated the space given by the Wizards porous defense to open up his own shots but also unselfishly dishing the ball to open teammates, who did their part by hitting shot after shot. After a poor start, coach Stevens quickly pulled out Green and Horford to the bench. Green would not return, but Horford painted another basketball masterpiece after he hit the floor again. He shot 10-of-13 for 21 points, grabbed 5 offensive rebounds and 9 total and assisted his teammates on 10 occasions.
Crowder had the best game of his career shooting the ball, making it rain from the three. He hit 6-of-8 shots from beyond the arc, mostly of wide open variety to collect 24 points for his team. The bench also played a solid part in climbing from the early deficit, especially once the lineups were downsized and Stevens could play Smart, Rozier and briefly Brown. Smart was a force with his tenacious on-ball defense, while the youngsters grew to play solid roles in limited minutes. Olynyk also did a great job providing some much need first quarter scoring, so the entire team (well, except Green) can feel good about their contributions and progress with confidence.
The Celtics shot 51.1 percent from the field and 48.7 from downtown. The kept the Wizards from fast breaks with focused transition defense and played them even on the rebounds. It was a tough win, more than the final result can show, but the Celtics played better and better as the game went on, so they should be in good position to win the Game 2 as well, regardless on whether Morris plays or not.
Washington Wizards at Boston Celtics Game 2 Trends & Prediction
The Washington Wizards could not cover despite leading by as much as 17 in the first half, falling to a 45-43-1 against the spread record overall, and 20-24-1 on the road. Game 1 was played at high pace and despite not getting much points on fast breaks, the shooting efficiency made up for it, so there was little doubt whether the game will result in an over or not. This increased the Wizards season O/U record to 55-33-1 and 29-15 as the visiting team. The Wizards are 4-2-1 against the total point line this postseason.
The Boston Celtics won and covered again, like in all the postseason games so far. This was just the second win at home though, were they have a 19-26 ATS record this season. Boston is 45-42-2 against the spread overall and 43-42-4 against the projected totals. The change of the game style and pace fitted them nice and as they tend to shoot much better at home, the overs were a strong bet in Beantown. The Celtics went 25-18 in O/U market on their court this season.
Game 1 played out much as I predicted for you, but unfortunately the market moved to respond and the new total points line is set at 218.5, full four points up from the last time, killing almost all value in playing the plus points. The things got more complicated with Morris questionable for this game, as there seems to be equal chance for him to dress or to sit out. Either way, it seems that both teams will look to downsize and play at high tempo, and the Wizards can’t win by defense, so expect a lot of points going forward.
I’m setting the line at 220 if Morris doesn’t play, but can’t move up from the previous line of 218.5 if he plays, as he might go on one leg and the Wizards might look to slow things a bit for him. The spread closed with Boston -4 in the first game, and is -5.5 now, with less enthusiastic public underdog betting. That’s reasonable considering how the Game 1 played out. I’m going with Boston -6 if Morris plays and -7 if he won’t be available, so keep an eye on the team news in hopes of catching a good value on the home favorites.
My Pick: Boston -5.5 (-101), if Morris doesn’t play
Total: Pass
