We have Eastern Conference action coming at you. Let’s take a look at today’s NHL playoff predictions.
| Rangers vs Senators ML -115 / -105 O/U 5 |
Penguins vs Capitals ML +150 / -170 O/U 5.5 |
Here are tonight’s starting goaltenders, courtesy of LeftWingLock.
Rangers vs Senators: The New York Rangers roared back with a pair of decisive home wins to even up their series against the Ottawa Senators. They duplicated their score in Game 3 by topping the Sens 4-1 rather handily in Game 4.
Nick Holden, who has had an awful postseason, opened up the scoring late in the first period with what was admittedly a very pretty move. It’s moments like that that can build a player’s confidence. New York would pull two goals ahead early in the second. Tanner Glass blocked a shot at the blueline that happened to bounce lively into the neutral zone. Speedster Michael Grabner picked up the puck and was off to the races on a 2-on-0 with Oscar Lindberg. Grabner fed Lindberg who buried it.
Rangers get a 2-on-0 and Lindberg makes it 2-0 pic.twitter.com/VQIKLsLXVd
— Pete Blackburn (@PeteBlackburn) May 5, 2017
Look at how lightning-quick Grabner’s head turn is to check Lindberg’s availability. If you blink you miss it. Everything Grabner does is done at above-average speed.
Lindberg would have a second goal before the second period was through. Tanner Glass (who was superb all game) forced a turnover behind the net. The loose puck landed on the stick of J.T. Miller, who found Lindberg for the one-timer. Anderson crossed up his glove hand and was beaten cleanly.
Chris Kreider would add a powerplay goal in the final frame. Kyle Turris would break the shutout.
Erik Karlsson was left out of the third period as a precautionary measure. Karlsson was banged up all game and has been dealing with a hairline fracture in his foot since the first round. He was caught limping off the ice in the second. With the score already out of reach, it was a wise move on Boucher’s part to hold him out and not risk his availability for Game 5. He is expected to play this afternoon.
Karlsson missed out on all the extracurricular activities at game’s end. Glass was locked into a fight with Kyle Turris, with Dion Phaneuf, Brendan Smith, Chris Kreider, and Bobby Ryan mixing it up as well. Ottawa was clearly trying to send a message that they would not be pushed around again. Problem is they lost the fight, so they were not exactly intimidating.
Permit me to eat crow: it seems like every time I call out Tanner Glass for being useless, he shows me up by hitting the scoresheet. He had two assists last game and looked like a totally different player handling the puck- in that he handled the puck. He had a great game. If he had a 55% Corsi-for rating every game like he did Thursday I wouldn’t complain. Nevertheless, he and the fourth line were outstanding. But it’s one great game out of 500+ bad ones. I stand by my opinion.
The home team has now won the last six meetings between these two teams. Ottawa has won their last four on home ice against the Rangers. They will need to turn things around and put together a great performance in front of their home fans. The line says they won’t be able to do it.
I have faith.
This game was oddly similar to one from the 2013 Eastern Conference Quarterfinals in which the Senators and Canadiens beat the tar out of each other so that only a handful of players were left on the bench for the end of the game.
The difference? Montreal was the road team, down 4-1 in the game. Ottawa wound up winning the series because the Canadiens panicked and just started throwing punches.
I doubt the script would flip in this scenario because of just how calm a coach Guy Boucher is. The Sens have a chance to right the ship at home because they know heading in that this series is only tied. They are not down, this is not an elimination game. They are no worse off than they were heading into Game 1.
That alone is reason for confidence. They will need to make adjustments, but I expect a much livelier effort from the Sens tonight.
Prediction: Take the Senators to win tonight. Play the under.
Penguins vs Capitals: Speaking of panic, let’s talk about the Washington Capitals. The Caps played Game 4 against a Crosby-less Penguins team. They drastically outshot the opposition and more than doubled their scoring chance total.
They still lost the game.
Why? For starters, of the 13 scoring chances that NaturalStatTrick tallied for Pittsburgh, six of them were high-danger. Of the 29 Washington registered, nine were high-danger. Even when getting badly outchanced and without the best player in the world in their lineup, the Penguins still are able to get quality looks.
For example: the Penguins struck first in the game in the opening frame because from their own zone after sustained pressure, they were able to find Patric Hornqvist up ice, split the defense and create a breakaway. No team in the league can do it at will like Pittsburgh. Hornqvist slipped his shot under the arm of Holtby and the Penguins led 1-0.
It was a picture-perfect breakout.
Plus, Pittsburgh just gets the bounces to go their way. Perhaps it’s the hockey gods cruelly playing yo-yo with the hopes and dreams of Capitals fans, but whatever it is, the Penguins are benefitting. Their second goal was a cross-ice pass that was going to flutter harmlessly into the corner but hit off the skate of Caps defenseman Dmitry Orlov and trickled into the goal.
Luck be a lady tonight.
Evgeny Kuznetsov would wire a wrist shot past Marc-Andre Fleury, and Nate Schmidt would pot his first after Washington headed right back into the zone. Two goals in 72 seconds evened up the score.
It would not take long for the Penguins to take the lead back. As has been the case all series: Washington dominates at 5-on-5, but the powerplay opportunities surrendered kill them. Justin Schultz blasted home a one-timer on the man advantage to give the Pens a 3-2 lead. Pierre McGuire described the goal as “hammer-time.” He’s 100% right.
Justin Schultz goal pic.twitter.com/SZcjSkltbp
— Shane O'Donnell (@shane1342o) May 4, 2017
The Capitals would apply pressure in the third but kept killing their own momentum. Alex Ovechkin took a penalty 41 seconds in to get the Caps on their heels to start the period, then T.J. Oshie took a high-sticking penalty with less than two minutes to go to all but kill their comeback hopes.
Marc-Andre Fleury made 36 stops in the game.
Sidney Crosby’s absence was felt, but the star did practice with the team yesterday. He has not ruled out a return for Game 5. I would find it highly surprising if he did play, but nothing is impossible. Given his concussion history, I would expect him to sit this one out and hope for an extended break should the Pens win tonight.
The Capitals have juggled their lines to try and generate scoring. Andre Burakovsky has been bumped up to the first line with Nick Backstrom and T.J. Oshie. Alex Ovechkin will play on the third line with Tom Wilson and Lars Eller. Oh boy. I get Barry Trotz is trying to spread the wealth of scoring a bit, but this move reeks of desperation.
Without Crosby, the odds of the Penguins winning are slim, as the line indicates. With him, things get more interesting. However, I am counting on him not playing.
I’m still calling the Penguins to win, solely because I said in my series preview they would.
The odds are stacked against them. To be honest, without Crosby and the Capitals being on home ice, ending the series tonight would be a Herculean task. But I am not one to renege on my predictions. I’m sticking with my gut, even though everything in my mind says this series is going six games.
Why am I standing by seemingly insurmountable odds? Simple: even without Sidney Crosby in the lineup, the high-danger chance battle was relatively even. The Penguins still had a powerplay goal and drew five penalties. Pittsburgh still has a myriad of weapons like that Malkin guy.
If the Penguins cut down on the giveaways, they could give the Capitals a real problem tonight.
Conversely, Washington will need to strike early to establish the tone tonight. We’ve seen in this series that two-goal leads are hardly safe with how potent both offenses are. The Capitals will need their line combinations to spark some chemistry right out of the gate. If players are not on the same page, then the lines will just continue to jumble. Set the tone and strike first.
As a prop bet, I’d place money on the Capitals scoring first in this one.
Prediction: I’m still going with my series preview of Penguins in 5. It’s a great chance to cash in, if nothing else. Play the over.
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