The Houston Rockets should show urgency to return to the winning ways in the Game 4 against the San Antonio Spurs after falling behind in the series. The visitors can be satisfied with a guaranteed split sans their legendary point guard, but will look to upset the stunned opponent and knock them out with another win. It’s a clash of the styles, ideologies and the Texas derby. It doesn’t get much better than this.
San Antonio Spurs at Houston Rockets Game 4
LINE: Houston -5.5 (-110); moneyline -230
Total: 212 (-106o, -106u)
No Parker no problem for the Spurs so far
The Spurs suffered their worst lost in history in Game 1 of this series versus Houston, but they have responded with back to back wins to take a 2-1 lead heading into Game 4. They led the entire second half in what has been a trademark Spurs win over the last couple of decades. They slowed it down, turned it to hustle, who-want-it-more type of a game and executed through their two stars. With first great Aldridge performance of the playoffs, San Antonio Spurs outscored Houston Rockets 20 to 2 in the mid-range by shooting 10-of-19.
Aldridge finally showed up in a big way for the Spurs: 26 points on 12-of-20 shooting, to go along with 7 rebounds and 4 blocks. Aldridge helped replace the void left by Tony Parker who is out for the rest of the playoffs with an quad tendon injury. Coach Popovich did not want to mess up with the second unit, so he starter rookie Murray, but Mills expectedly wounded up playing double his minutes.
Kawhi Leonard continued to steer the ship, with 26 points, 10 rebounds, and 7 assists as the Spurs shot 45.3 percent from the field. Not only did the San Antonio Spurs outshoot the usually hot shooting Rockets, they outworked them in practically every facet of the game. San Antonio out-rebounded Houston 49-39 and were excellent on defense, despite not stopping Harden this time.
Instead, they shut down the rest of the Rockets. Popovich didn’t give up on the dual point guard lineups, rolling Ginobili and Mills at the same time, but also used a no-point-guard lineup with Leonard used as the primary handler. Parker wasn’t having much of the ball handling duties to begin with, but his absence was felt in the turnover department. San Antonio was lucky to keep the Rockets from making them pay for their carelessness after committing 20 turnovers in the Game 3.
Place: Toyota Center, Houston, Texas
Date/Time: Sunday May 7th, 2017. 9:00 PM ET
TV Coverage: TNT
The Rockets can’t find the flow for the second game
The Houston Rockets were adamant to get their star rolling, and James Harden responded by going off for 43 points on 14-of-28 from the floor, getting to the foul line and dominating their offense. It was a terrible coaching misjudgment, one that could cost D’Antoni his job if the Rockets fail to turn things around again. The supporting cast is what has won them the first game in convincing fashion, but were relegated to the spectators position.
Players other than Harden went a combined 18-of-60 from the floor and scored just 49 points, so by looking at the stats line one could think that they didn’t show up, but they were just not given the opportunity. Lou Williams played only 10 minutes in a game where the Rockets couldn’t score. He didn’t score, but his time on the floor was the only time the Rockets managed to outscore the Spurs. Williams and Anderson took only 4 shots apiece, while Beverly took 13 himself and Ariza, encouraged by a strong first half shooting, took 12 threes.
Of course, a lot of it has to do with good Spurs defense, but the shot distribution was a disaster for the Rockets. They finish the game shooting 36.4 percent and have hit 12 three pointers in this one. The big issue is 9 fast break points, and OKC series showed that Houston can be slow to operate in the half court sets due to indecisiveness on Harden with the ball. The game was played at Spurs pace, and the Rockets were forced to take a lot of difficult floaters outside or near the edge of the paint, shots that didn’t look within the natural flow of the Rockets offense.
Despite being challenged on the shots, they can and will shoot better on most of the nights, but Harden needs to trust his teammates and allow the ball to move around more freely. The 92 points were the least amount of point scored this entire season, so they should bounce back.
San Antonio Spurs at Houston Rockets Game 4 Trends & Prediction
The Houston Rockets are to 4-4 against the spread in the playoffs, but only 1-3 in Toyota Center. It’s been the story of the season for them, as they went 19-26 ATS at home. Overall, Houston is 46-44 ATS. With only 96 combined possessions in the last meeting, it’s no wonder that the game ended in an under, first in the series. The Rockets went 45-44-1 against the projected line, and 23-22 at home.
The San Antonio Spurs improved to 47-42-2 against the spread and 24-18-2 away from home. The Game 3 was only the 7th time all season that the Spurs have been set as an underdog. Of those seven, the Spurs have covered six times. They have also been successful in all three games in Houston played this season. Under in Game 3 broke the 6-game over streak, but this shouldn’t be attributed to Parker’s absence. The Spurs are usually money on plus points, going 50-39-2 over the course of the season, and 24-20 on the road.
Even with the last games been controlled by the Spurs, the Rockets are favored to win this one and even the series. The spread is fluctuating between 5.5 and 6 points depending on the book, basically offering us the same odds as in the last game. The Rockets are suddenly a desperate home team, so that’s what the market is looking to account for, but the numbers don’t work well in their favor. Fair number is Houston -3, giving you plenty of a value to take the underdog with the points, which is always a tempting offer.
The previous three games weren’t close, but the regular season meeting had been decided by one or two possessions, so there’s not much separating the two teams. The Rockets could pull even but fail to cover, and at these prices, I’m will to bet it will happen this way. The total point line has been set at 212, down quite a bit from the previous games, giving us a borderline chance of an much desired over bet. I’m set at 216 for this game, so keep a close eye on the target and the odds movement to grab the bet.
My Pick: Spurs +5.5 (-105) or +6 (-110)
Total: Over 211.5 points (-105)
