We’ve reached the Western Conference Final. The Anaheim Ducks will be taking on the Nashville Predators for a spot in the Stanley Cup Final.
Both teams have set a historic standard of sorts this year. Anaheim overcame their total inability to win a Game 7 by winning a thrilling 2-1 game over the Edmonton Oilers Wednesday Night. Nick Ritchie buried what would be the game-winning goal early in the third period. The depth forward who found himself playing with Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry in the Ducks’ most important game of the season came up huge with a goal and a team-leading four shots on goal.
The win snapped a five-game losing streak in Game 7s.
Nashville has never been this far. Ever. It has taken until their 18th season to so much as qualify for the Western Conference Final. It has been a long time coming. Last season the Predators lost Game 7 of the second round to the eventual Western Conference Champion San Jose Sharks.
A Stanley Cup Final berth would be unprecedented. Nashville is already in uncharted territory, though apparently NHL17 called that they would be going all the way this season. The Ducks have not been to the finals since they won the cup in 2007. Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry were fresh-faced kids playing in their first full 82-game seasons with the NHL club. J.S. Giguere was the starting goaltender. Rickard Rakell was 14.
Let’s take a look at some of the keys to victory this series.
Offense: advantage Ducks.
If there’s one thing that we as a hockey community should have taken away from the insanity that was the Edmonton-Anaheim series, it’s that the Anaheim Ducks have the ability to score at will.
Oh, and that Getzlaf guy is alright.
The Ducks are second in the postseason in scoring with 35 tallies on the board. No feat of strength was more impressive than their three goals in three minutes display to steal Game 5 away from the Oilers. Anaheim has always been a powerful scoring team, led by their top six. But no microcosm of games flaunted that trait more than the second round.
Evgeni Malkin leads the NHL postseason in scoring, but Ryan Getzlaf is third with 15 points. Ten of those points came against the Oilers. Though he was held off the scoresheet in the final two games of the series, his dominance in all three zones helped the Ducks get over the hump in the all-important Game 7.
Jakob Silfverberg went into the postseason hot and has remained hot. He found the stat sheet in each of the first five games of the second round, amassing eight points. He had the overtime winner in Game 4 in Edmonton to boot. Rickard Rakell had a four-game goal streak in the Edmonton series, plus Corey Perry had six points of his own.
It was a high-scoring series.
Nashville’s second round was not.
Most of the Predators’ offensive attack flows through their blueline (more on them in a minute). In terms of forwards, they have a collection of great puck movers and speedsters. Ryan Johansen leads all forwards in scoring with nine points, tied for the team lead. With that said, Johansen had no points from Games 2 through 5. Regular season leading scorer Viktor Arvidsson had one assist in Game 6 to finally get him on the board against the Blues. Filip Forsberg had three points against the Blues.
The Predators roll four lines. They want to create chances regardless of who is on the ice, and their ability to do so is credit to just how effective their system is. However, when going up against generational talents like Getzlaf and Perry, you need your big guns to be firing on all cylinders.
Of course, they will need to break through Nashville’s defense…
Defense: advantage Predators.
Nashville is the best blueline core remaining in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, and there is no doubt about it. Roman Josi has four points in his last four games and takes about 30 shifts a game. One more point ties last year’s total, his career best in the postseason. He is a warrior.
P.K. Subban was a dominant force on the puck in the series with St. Louis. Five of his seven points this postseason came against the Blues, and it was his wizardry on the powerplay that helped sink St. Louis once and for all. The fact that Subban has been having such a tremendous postseason and the Predators keep on rolling to dominant low-scoring games must have Montreal fans throwing fits, eh?
Salt in the wound? Sorry. Enjoy the golf course, I hear Shea Weber is on the back nine (heyoooooo).
But it is Ryan Ellis who has emerged as one of the biggest x-factors for Nashville this postseason. Ellis has four goals and five assists in 10 games this postseason, contributing to the most active offensive d-core in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Ellis’ stint on the Preds’ top pairing has been tremendous, which is an understatement of epic proportions.
Seriously, if I told you that Ryan Ellis would be the Nashville Predators’ leading scorer en route to the Western Conference Final at the beginning of the postseason, what would you have said?
Mattias Ekholm also has three assists. Yannick Weber and Matt Irwin are the only defensemen on the team without a point in 10 games.
Anaheim’s blueline is hardly weak, but it was exposed by the brutally fast and skilled Edmonton Oilers. It’s hard to guess what defensive core would not be victimized by the likes of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Against a more conservative team, Anaheim will likely be able to rein things in and regain a bit of their confidence. However, in comparison to the deadly 1-3-1 forecheck run to precision by Peter Laviolette and company, the Ducks will hardly seem like the more disciplined team.
The spotlight will be shining brightly on Sami Vatanen, who returned to the Ducks after an injury during the Edmonton series. He was good, but not the dominant Sami Vatanen that has made him a darling in the advanced stats community. Vatanen will need to take a step forward. Even though Nashville is not as run-and-gun as the Oilers, the Ducks’ defenders will still need to contain the likes of the speedy Johansen, Forsberg and Arvidsson.
Expect Nashville to put on a defensive clinic.
Special teams: advantage Predators.
For as good as Anaheim is in terms of lighting the lamp, they have struggled on the man advantage. The Ducks were 2-for-23 on the powerplay in the second round, which is unspectacular. They have the worst remaining powerplay percentage, third worst overall in the postseason.
But what really stands out is just how ineffective their penalty kill has been.
The Ducks were taken out behind the woodshed by the Flames’ powerplay units in the opening round, but still managed to walk away with a sweep. In the second round, their inability to stop powerplay specialist Mark Letestu nearly cost them the series. Anaheim allowed seven powerplay goals to the Oilers in seven games. They are the worst remaining penalty kill unit in the Stanley Cup Playoffs at 69%. That ranks only one point behind the lowest, Columbus.
Nashville is not the most dominant powerplay unit in the world, but where they excel is merely getting chances. They burned the Blues by simply drawing penalties and killing the Blues’ momentum. They scored four powerplay goals in the series, but were getting three or four chances every game without taking very many penalties of their own. The Predators are very disciplined.
It helps to have defensemen that can play at all strengths like Roman Josi and Ryan Ellis, too.
Goaltending: advantage Predators.
I’m going to go on record as saying that I was never really a huge John Gibson fan. I think he’s a perfectly serviceable young goaltender with a lot of room for growth, but he’s good enough to get the job done if he’s got a powerful offensive lineup in front of him. And lookee here, he’s in the Western Conference Final because his team is averaging 3.18 goals-for per game despite having the worst goals-against average of any remaining team at 3.00 (second is Ottawa at 2.75).
Gibson is remarkably fortunate to be on a team that can score at will, because his Game 7 performance aside, he has let in some pretty egregiously soft goals this postseason. His own personal goals-against average this postseason of 2.80 is far and away the worst of any goaltender with 10 or more starts. Same goes for his .908 save percentage. There simply have been far too many moments this postseason where spectators are left scratching their heads wondering, “how did that go in?”
Pekka Rinne, by contrast, is having the postseason of his life. Rinne leads all postseason starting goaltenders with a .951 save percentage and a 1.37 goals-against average. Rinne has faced comparatively a significantly easier workload than a lot of other goaltenders by virtue of having one of the best defensive cores and stingiest defensive systems in the National Hockey League in front of him. But Rinne has played unbelievably well this postseason.
He allowed just five goals in the final four games of the Nashville-St. Louis series. That’s slamming the door.
The veteran Finnish goaltender is in a unique spot. Last year was undeniably his worst full season as a pro, sporting a .908 save percentage and 2.48 goals-against average. This year was hardly a dominant one in net, but he has turned it on when it matters most. When Rinne is locked in, he is actually very fun to watch. For someone who is as long-limbed as he is, he is lightning quick with his legs. His lateral movement is not what it was being 34 and all, but he still seems to have lots of life in those limbs.
The way for Anaheim to try and beat him will be to be on the prowl for rebounds, of which there will be many.
Bold Predictions
1) Viktor Arvidsson will not score a goal this series.
2) Ryan Getzlaf will lead the Ducks in scoring. Maybe not that bold, but I expect him to have his best playoff series ever.
3) John Gibson will be pulled once. He’s been yanked in both series so far.
I think this is where experience plays a big role. Getzlaf has been here too many times to be denied again.
The Quack Attack is back, Jack.
Prediction: Ducks in 7.
