NBA Preview: The San Antonio Spurs have a must-win game and they also must have Kawhi Leonard to have a chance to beat Golden State.
#1 Golden State Warriors (77-15) at #2 San Antonio Spurs (69-27), Saturday, 9 p.m. EST
Line: Warriors -6. Total 212.
Series: Warriors lead 2-0.
NBA fans have suffered through three obliterations after a thrilling Game 1 between the Spurs and Warriors at Oracle Arena last Sunday. Interestingly enough, Game 1 also started out as a trouncing as San Antonio had a 25-point lead over the Warriors in the first half. The Spurs led by 20 at halftime and held a 23-point lead when Kawhi Leonard injured his left ankle again.
Leonard tweaked it when he stepped on David Lee’s foot after making a shot early in the third quarter. A couple of minutes later, he sprained it badly when he landed on Zaza Pachulia’s foot. Leonard was forced to leave the game at that point. The Spurs led 78-55 when Leonard departed about four minutes into the third quarter. The Warriors immediately went on an 18-0 run to get right back into the game.
Would the Spurs have maintained their 20-point lead had Leonard not been injured? We will never know. What we do know is that that the Warriors have outscored San Antonio 194-133 since Leonard limped off the court on Sunday.
The Spurs looked lifeless in Game 2 and they were dismantled 136-100. San Antonio was down by 17 points after the first quarter and 28 points at the half. They were down as many as 41 points in the second half of that debacle.
The Cleveland at Boston series has not been any better. The Cavaliers cruised to a 117-104 win in Game 1 on Wednesday. The game was not as close as the final score indicated. Cleveland led by as many as 25 points in the first half and held a 61-39 halftime lead. The Cavs led by as many as 28 points in the third quarter.
Then the mother of all beat-downs transpired on Friday as the Cavaliers destroyed the Celtics 130-86 in Game 2. Cleveland led by 41 points at the half and by 50 points at one juncture in the second half.
All the talking heads on television cannot wait for these boring conference finals to end and the championship finals to begin. The prognosticators, analysts and fans are frothing at the mouth to see Cleveland and Golden State go head to head. I think Stephen A. Smith of ESPN is on the verge of petitioning NBA Commissioner Adam Silver to just skip the remaining games of this round and just have a Best-of-11 NBA Finals series with the Cavaliers and Warriors.
However, the remaining conference finals games will be played. The Eastern Conference series will end in four games. Nobody is even questioning a sweep at this point. It is going to happen. However, the Western Conference series will get interesting in a hurry if Leonard can play Game 3. A competitive series hangs in the balance. If Leonard cannot return to this series, then in all likelihood there will be a sweep here, too, and we will see a pair of 12-0 teams meeting in the Finals for the first time.
I fully expect San Antonio to show up and give 100% effort regardless of whether Leonard can play or not. San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich accused his team of basically quitting in Game 2. Popovich basically said the mindset of his team was such that they did not believe they could win Game 2. Anybody watching that game would not disagree with Popovich’s assertion. The Spurs did not look ready to play.
The ESPN network executives probably said a few prayers for Leonard’s health before bed Friday night. There may be a few million viewers turning the channel before tipoff if they find out Leonard is not playing.
Andre Iguodala and Pachulia are listed as questionable in Game 3 for Golden State. Leonard is officially listed as questionable, too, for San Antonio.
From a handicapping perspective, it looks like Vegas expects Leonard to play based on the line they set. Vegas will move the line down a point or point-and-a-half if Leonard plays. This will simply be a preemptive maneuver for bettors reacting to the news. However, if Leonard cannot play, then I can see the line moving up to 8 or even 9 points.
Golden State thrives in these big games. They have gone into Oklahoma City in two very tough situational spots this season and won both games easily. Kevin Durant did not even play during the Warriors second trip to OKC.
There was another big game almost two months ago when San Antonio was threatening the Warriors’ hold on the #1 seed in the Western Conference. Golden State responded by erasing a 22-point first quarter deficit at the AT&T Center on March 29 to beat the Spurs 110-98. The Warriors won that game without Durant, too.
Golden State is 25-1 in their last 26 games. It is monkey-see, monkey-do time again as the Warriors watched Cleveland dismantle the Celtics again on Friday. Consequently, Golden State will want to stay one-up on the Cavs with another win over the Spurs on Saturday.
Everyone is talking about how Cleveland is playing their best basketball of the season right now. Well, that is intuitively obvious even to the most casual observer. The Cavs are obliterating their opponents their last six games. However, Golden State is also playing their best basketball of the season right now, too.
My postseason record: 16-7 (+$745).
My pick:
No play. If Golden State wins Game 3, then I fully expect them to win and cover the spread in Game 4. This Spurs team has a lot of pride and enough talent to give the Warriors a game in Game 3, with or without Leonard. The Spurs have a huge bounce-back spot after being thoroughly embarrassed in Game 2. Therefore, I have a lean to the Spurs keeping it close and covering the spread.
Good Luck.
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