The clay-court season is in the middle of May, which means the French Open can’t be too far away. Rome plays its round of 16 on Thursday, which means a number of players will try to make a move and give themselves more ranking points and match play before the trip to Paris. Here are players who have already generated momentum in Monte Carlo and especially Madrid, making Rome less of a priority for them on the road to Roland Garros.
Rafael Nadal
There is no explanation needed for this one. Nadal won Monte Carlo. He won Barcelona. He won Madrid. The greatest clay-court player of all time hasn’t lost a match on clay in Europe during the spring clay-court swing. He looks fresh, he looks invigorated, and he clearly looks like the best player on tour in the absence of Roger Federer, who has skipped the entirety of the clay season to prepare for the grass season in the middle of June.
The point that Federer is missing out on the French Open should be highlighted. It’s not that Roland Garros was ever his strength; it’s clearly not. However, he’s probably been the best player on the ATP Tour this year. Andy Murray has scuffled, Novak Djokovic has gone through his trials and tribulations and Nadal hasn’t been OK up until the clay court season. With Federer out of the picture in the French Open, Nadal has a much easier path to the title.
There is no question that he is the obvious favorite for Roland Garros. It’s hard to make a case for anyone to even threaten him at this point. It is unlikely that Rome will change anyone’s mind, either. It wouldn’t be too surprising if Nadal was favored by -200 or more at Roland Garros; he’s the man to beat.
Dominic Thiem
The Austrian made the Roland Garros semifinals a year ago. He reached the Barcelona final this year and then made his first Masters 1000 final in Madrid. He gave Nadal a strong battle and even had set points in the first set, but Nadal held him at bay and managed to overtake him in a close straight-set match. Thiem is more comfortable on clay than on any other surface. If he gets the right draw in Paris, he could very realistically make his first major final. That would be the next step in a career which is slowly but steadily moving forward. Thiem would love to be able to cross a few accomplishments off his tennis to-do list. That will give him the confidence to make an even bigger leap up the charts in 2018 and beyond, as he tries to build his very promising career to an even greater and more elevated level.
Pablo Cuevas
The Uruguayan made his first Masters 1000 semifinal in Madrid. This came after Cuevas stood just two points way from registering that feat a month earlier in Monte Carlo. He was serving at 5-4 and 30-love in the third set against Lucas Pouille, but then a rash of errors prevented him from winning that quarterfinal match. He lost serve and was then beaten by Pouille. He rebounded, though, and as a result, he has made a very big climb in terms of rankings points. He is a dangerous floater at the French Open, someone who needs to be taken seriously. His form won’t generally translate to other surfaces, but he is a factor in France.
Borna Coric
He won his first title in Marrakech. He beat World No. 1 Andy Murray in Madrid and reached a Masters 1000 quarterfinal. Coric isn’t a favorite at Roland Garros, but he has notched some very significant career milestones this clay season. After a period of stagnation, he is showing signs that in a few years, he could make a breakthrough with his defense-fueled game and his penetrating backhand.
Taking a look at the numbers, Coric had a terrible time during the hard court season but has come to life on clay. He was 4-6 on the hard courts but is already 8-4 on clay. We’re not expecting him to win the French Open but he is going to be a live dog in the early rounds of Roland Garros.
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