Can you believe that there are so many articles about re-drafts? It has become a common practice to evaluate the NBA draft that happened years ago, which is really hard for me to understand. There’s absolutely no gain from saying: “Hey, the Kings didn’t do well by drafting Cauley-Stein.” two years late. NBA teams spend hours and days to evaluate prospects before they decide whom should they sign to a contract. Some do a better job than others and there some luck involved as well. Anyway, judging drafts backwards (and with a save time cushion just to make sure) does not help anyone – it’s just stating the obvious.
How deep is this year’s NBA draft?
The same applies when it comes to the betting industry. In my everlasting attempt to provide my readers any, even the slightest edge that turns to a buck, I’ll write about the new talent and what kind of impact the rookies will have once the teams make their decisions. It’s never too early to prepare yourself though, so please join me in this short overview of this year’s NBA draft depth. I’ll try to answer some questions like ‘how many top prospects are there’, ‘how much are two late first round pick worth’, ‘how many international players are NBA ready’ or ‘what are potential pitfalls for the lottery selecting franchises’.
But let’s first take a look at the top prospects in this year’s edition of the NBA Draft.
The Green Room
Washington’s Markelle Fultz and UCLA’s Lonzo Ball are the obvious lottery selections and they’ll certainly be picked within the first 5. After these two point guards, it’s a group of players that have very little between them and whose selection will largely depend on team needs, more than the actual talent. Kentucky’s Monk and Fox, Duke’s Tatum, Kansas Jackson are the players that have the reputation, the talent and the high ceiling and these four are going to be highly sought after.
That’s six at the top and I’d make a clean break here. There’s a possibility that with hard work and the perfect situation other players surpass this group of top prospects, but currently the rest of the applicants is a blurry bunch.
Of course, big men Markannen, Collins and Allen, Isaac as well as point guards Ntilikina and NC State’s Dennis Smith, and possibly Kennard and Mitchell at the two, all have decent games, some potential to start in the league in the future and will be picked in the lottery. That’s the reason most of the mainstream media will hype you over the deep NBA draft. There’s a little bit of everything for the bottom dwellers and they can actually choose from a group of players even if they are outside the top three. However, it doesn’t differ much from any other year in terms of sheer talent, and even worse, the 2017 class offers much of what’s not actually desired.
The Top 6
If you’ve followed my scribbling over the past few weeks, you might have spotted that I’m putting Lonzo Ball at the top of my prospects lists. The new kid might not achieve all what he has the potential for, as he’ll likely end up with the sorry Lakers who are still having all sorts of organizational and other issues. Ball also has the special handicap of his neck breathing attention cawing father, so it might take a whole lot longer to get to his peak (if he ever does). But in terms of the on-court quality, Ball is a class above Fultz.
Fultz is a nice player as well, and a much safer pick for Boston (or whomever they trade the pick to). He is a scoring point, a position that in high demand in recent years, but the problem is that almost every team in the league has a ‘star’ in his position and in his style of play, and getting a Jrue Holiday or a Jeff Teague at the number one spot is not the franchise dream, nor the mighty NBA draft.
Pretty much the same goes for De’Aaron Fox, and he’s only the third best PG in the draft. He can be a floor leader and can finish inside the arc, but there are few remaining starting guards who can’t buy a bucket from the deep (Rubio, Rondo, Rose), and these are generally killing their teams chances.
Jason Tatum is a more complete player. He has good physique and excellent shooting technique. He still needs to add bulk and play with more power, but considering he’s coming out after just a single campaign with the Blue Devils, he’s certainly worth risking even if it takes a couple of years to catch up.
Jason Jackson is another long, lanky wing who can shift between positions. This versatility is highly valuable to NBA team, but there’s always a concern that he never finds his true NBA position.
And the sixth member of the cream of the crop is a backcourt player as well. Kentucky’s freshman Malik Monk is NBA ready scoring-wise. An instant injection of offense for a team in need, and as the two-guards have recently fallen into the shades, his talent will be desired by more than a few. In fact, if a team trades up in the NBA draft to get someone of the top 6, I believe they’ll do it to get him. Not that Monk is the best prospect here, but could have an instant impact for the middle of the pack teams and the asking price won’t be that high as for some other picks.
The Big Men
You have heard a few times already, but many NBA teams have a drafting policy that says “you can’t teach height”. It’s a popular mantra and there’s a possibility that some front offices still have a habit to think Big, as in for a big man. However, centers are a critically endangered species of players in the NBA at the moment. Everybody is going small and while the rosters would carry 5 or 6 true bigs back in the days, they’ll only account for a couple in 2017. True defensive anchors are still valuable, as long as playing them doesn’t mean that you are playing 4-on-5 on the offense. The rest better shoot from 25-ft and beyond or they aren’t going to see court minutes.
Unfortunately for the teams picking after the first 6, the big men are abundant in this year’s edition of the draft, and they are actually fine young players. Jonathan Isaac is a defense first forward that could stretch NBA defenses with little outside shooting improvement, and Lauri Markannen has great range (without the defense parts though).
Zach Collins offers the best combination of scoring, rim protection and outside touch, even if his rebounding numbers are a big red flag. See the script here? Each has flaws, and the teams don’t really need that many of average, flawed big men. But pass them over and what do you get? Fourth or fifth best PG in the draft? Who needs that? So while on paper it seems that the teams are getting to pick from a nice variety of players, they’ll most likely get an average one no matter whom they select. I don’t see that as a deep NBA draft, pardonne-moi.
Could Europe please stop sending players with names impossible to pronounce?
We barely figured on how to say Antetokounmpo without breaking our jaws, Europe challenged us with Porzingis. Got him with a triumphant holler, but the new task is coming. His name is Frank Ntilikina. The youngster has a long way to go and will likely be lottery picked as a future project (or hold), so we are getting more time than with the last couple. All jokes aside, the NBA draft is not very deep because there are no other international players worth mentioning besides Ntilikina.
The 2016 NBA Draft set a record for the most players born outside of the United States to be drafted in the first round. No other player projects to be selected in the first round and actually make the leap this season. If teams pick some players from across the ocean, it will be to ease their cap situation and delay signing a first round pick.
Two late first round picks – any takers?
You’ve seen it before. Good teams accumulate few late first round picks with hopes of pairing them to climb up in the NBA draft, but only trade it for cash considerations or to allow a team without first round picks to get back in. This year won’t be different, but it should be.
If you see a late lottery team trade their main pick for a late round double, mark it as they have some smart people in the front office. With the sea of average flowing from the 8th or 9th position onwards, smart teams will be able to get two guys for the price of one and potentially increase the chance to catch a hidden star. But with the general notion that 2017 is a great draft, asking prices will likely be very high and the playoff teams got there by keeping their calm and passing on such deals.
The best possible thing to do with the two last first round picks is to trade them for 2018 picks. Kings and Knicks might be interested, if they own their 2018 pick of course.
The landscape of the NBA will remain largely unchanged, but keep an eye on the couple of players I’ve pointed out. Some of them might partake some terraforming if they land in the correct situation.
