With the major player movement part behind us, the bookmakers have started releasing their futures, giving you the opportunity to invest your money in the next NBA season even though regular season games won’t be played for another 15 weeks. I’ve already introduced you to the ways of earning money on futures writing about early RoY award odds, so in case you forgot or missed the article, feel free to take a look at it as well.
This time, I’m going to take a look at the NBA title odds and my favorite future – win totals. The first option will surely be largely popular with the Warriors a big favorite once again, but it only includes a few teams to work with. The wins totals allows you to place your wager on any team’s season.
The Golden (State) dilemma
After re-signing their entire squad in the first two weeks of July, the Warriors have returned to a massive favorite role to defend their NBA title. They are currently around at -168 to repeat, close to where they’ve opened right after winning the title. That is the lowest price on any team in any season, but that doesn’t mean that the public bettors will refrain from taking them.
The odds represent 3 in 5 chance to win, and if you ask most people if they think that the Warriors would take 3 titles out of 5 tries in exactly these conditions, there would be plenty of takers. You shouldn’t be among them. The West is staked up and despite the multiheaded attack, it only takes one untimely injury (or suspension) to knock them out before they even reach the NBA Finals. More importantly, after tearing apart the last three seasons, it’s likely that they are going more on a cruise before the playoffs, meaning that you’ll have plenty of opportunity to take them at a higher price during the season, should you choose so.
So, with the Warriors out of the picture, whom should you take?
First, forget about the highly improbable targets like Hawks, Lakers or Knicks. The team has to be at least playoff good to enter any conversation. Among those who qualify, the most interesting odds are on the Wizards (+2800), the Clippers (+6600) and the Raptors (+5000).
It’s difficult to make strong case for any contender other than the two teams that have met in the NBA Finals three times in a row, but it’s a bit clearer to imagine how the East will pan out with fewer good teams in this conference. The Celtics would be the obvious choice, but the price on them plummeted after they’ve acquired Hayward, paying you at +750 in comparison to +1500 by the end of the last season.
So if anyone’s going to upset the Cavaliers and the Celtics, look no further to two teams who are returning their entire starting fives – the Wizards and the Raptors. The Raptors obviously have more questions to be answered, thus the more gratifying payout, but either team should have no serious obstacles before the Eastern Conference semis and were dubbed as a potentially ones who could trouble or even knock off the Cavs just couple of months ago.
The Western Conference is going to be tough to muscle through and there are going to be at least 3 teams disappointed not to reach the NBA playoffs, so I looked for the highest discrepancy between my numbers and the current odds. Unsurprisingly, the Clippers aren’t believed to be too good after the departures of Paul, Redick, Moute and Crawford. For some reason, the market doesn’t expect the replacements to be able to sustain the Clippers half hearted run at the title.
The public always tend to overrate big names such as Paul, and while they are undoubtedly a weaker team this year, they still have a plenty to show for – All-NBA and Defense teams center, an All Star forward in his prime and a high profile head coach. They’ve added Gallinari, Teodosic, Beverley and Lou Williams, so they are far from pushovers. Who knows, maybe this group of players can align much better than the previous. If it does, the current odds will look ridiculously high come mid-season. Even if you wouldn’t want to keep the wager to find out if they could put it off, you should be able to hedge it during the season and earn a couple of bucks.
If you are looking to extend the scope of your NBA future wagers, the bookmakers have been offering the over/under betting on the win totals for each team in the season 2017/18.
Win totals bargains search
It’s that time of the year when the bookmakers make most mistakes and you can cash in by taking bargain deals on the win totals. Unfortunately, they have been pretty sharp in setting the lines for the over/under, but there are still a few bets to be had.
Atlanta Hawks under 34.5
The Hawks do play in the East where there are more wins to be had, but are far from a team that will fight for the playoffs. Millsap, Howard and Hardaway left too big of a gap and the front office decided that it’s better to rebuild than try to close it. The drop might seem big compared to the last season, when the Hawks won 43 games, but keep in mind that lottery teams don’t push it too hard after the NBA All-Star break to improve their draft spots.
Houston Rockets under 56.5
Another under, but this time for a surefire NBA playoff team that also pretends on the big prize. The Rockets are looking as team to bet against the entire way. The fortunate turn of the league direction last season propelled them into the top tier, but they have been pushed even further as they acquired Chris Paul. I’ve already explained why the benefit will not be as great as perceived, so bettering the last year’s 55 win season in the much improved conference will be a tall task for the new Rockets.
New Orleans Pelicans under 40.5
The window here is closing, as the line crashed from 43.5, and rightfully so. The Pelicans won only 34 wins last year and while they played half of the season without prized addition Cousins, the competition was as fierce as it’s going to be this year. They’ve failed to impress in the offseason as well and the Cousins-Davis pairing hasn’t shown much either.
Charlotte Hornets over 40.5
The Charlotte Hornets project are a certain NBA playoff team in the weakened Eastern Conference and while it’s possible to get in without winning half of their games, the Hornets should be able to improve to at least .500 with Indiana, Chicago and Atlanta out of the way.
Boston Celtics over 54.5
The Celtics have won the number one seed in the East last season with 53 wins, proving that they very much care about the seeding and the regular NBA season record. They are also considerably better this time, so I’m willing to bet that they can top last year’s total by at least two wins.
Utah Jazz over 37.5
The Jazz did lose one of their best players in Gordon Hayward, but this was a team that had won over 50 games last season – despite having to cope with the injury bug the entire season. The preseason will give us a better glimpse on how will the things go with the new playmaker, so expect the total to rise to around 39.5-41 games where they project to go next season. Don’t wait too much to take this one.
So there you have it, plenty of opportunities to start your NBA season early. Don’t miss any action and follow my next articles for more advice on NBA betting.
