The Tulsa Golden Hurricane are moving in the right direction. They have one of the brighter young minds in the head coaching profession, Philip Montgomery. They were the only team in the AAC West last season to win 10 games including the 13th game of the season (the bowl game). On the few occasions they lost, they still looked impressive. However, one simple reality could stand in the way of their progress in 2017.
How Did They End 2016
The AAC did not do well on a general level in bowl games, but Tulsa was not part of that negative pattern. The Golden Hurricane destroyed Central Michigan in the Miami Beach Bowl to do their part in lifting up the AAC. Tulsa’s offense was outstanding in the back end of the 2016 season. The Golden Hurricane scored at least 40 points in five of their last six regular season games, and then carried that production into the bowl game. This team’s offense caught fire and never really cooled off. The defense did just enough to enable the offense to win games. Montgomery had worked under Art Briles at Baylor, so he learned from one of the masters of a high-powered spread-focused passing attack. His wisdom as a student is just as apparent as his wisdom as a teacher. Tulsa seems to be in very good hands, and the only question about Montgomery is not if he’s good, but if he’s going to jump to a bigger job anytime soon?
Offseason Changes
This is the big problem for the Golden Hurricane. The offense hummed so well this past season, but veteran quarterback Dane Evans has graduated, causing a quarterback change this season with a man who will immediately face high-level pressure. The two main candidates for the quarterback job at Tulsa this upcoming season are Chad President and Luke Skipper. They need to show they learned from Evans, and Montgomery has to show that he can develop other quarterbacks after his very successful run with Evans the past two seasons. Some coaches work extremely well with specific quarterbacks but then fail to string together several successful relationships with quarterbacks. That’s what Montgomery has to be able to do this fall.
Team X-Factor
Defensive end Jeremy Smith is generally regarded as the team’s second best defensive end. Jesse Brubaker is the opposite defensive end, and he racked up the big stats last season. Tulsa knows it can trust Brubaker. If Smith can elevate his game and become the player the defensive coaches hope he’ll be, Tulsa will field a stronger defense with balance on the strong side and the weak side. The Golden Hurricane will have enough defensive quality that they will win the few extra shootouts they lost in 2016. Tulsa lost 42-40 to Navy last year, costing the Golden Hurricane the AAC West. A little more defense can put the team on the right side of a shootout in 2017.
What To Expect From The Golden Hurricane This Year
It all comes down to the passing game, with the attached hope that the defense can be slightly better. If Tulsa scores in bunches one year after the exit of Evans, this team can probably beat out Memphis for the AAC West title.
Record Last 5 Seasons
2016: 10-3
2015: 6-7
2014: 2-10
2013: 3-9
2012: 11-3
Schedule & Outlook
Tulsa will have a fairly tough start to the season with two road trips in their first three games. It’s hard to envision them beating Oklahoma State on the road in Week 1 and even a road trip to Toledo in Week 3 will not be a gimme. Even so, the schedule gets much easier from there. Three of their next four will be at home and they should find their way to 5-3 by that point. That could set them up to finish the year undefeated or with just one more loss (at South Florida).
An 8-4 or 9-3 record looks just about right for the Golden Hurricane. If they beat Memphis and the Tigers finish with the same divisional record, the Golden Hurricane can win the AAC West. The division is cutthroat, so Tulsa won’t run the table, but the Golden Hurricane and Memphis appear to be the two favorites in the division.
Regular Season Win Total Prediction: Over 7.5
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