The Washington State Cougars were good enough to stay in the Pac-12 North Division race through the full 2016 regular season. Can they pull off an encore and make some modest improvements that could enhance the quality of bowl game they will get? This is a season which could turn in several different directions for head coach Mike Leach.
How Did They End 2016
The Cougars, after 10 games, had a chance to win the Pac-12 title and go to the Rose Bowl, which would have represented a dream season.
Then the wheels fell off.
The offense which had been so productive and consistent over the previous several weeks lost its rhythm and its potency in three straight losses to Colorado, Washington, and then in the bowl game against Minnesota. The Colorado game was not that bad a loss – it was on the road, and Colorado had a strong secondary which matched up well against Washington State’s receivers. However, the home game against Washington was for the Pac-12 North title and it was a rivalry game. The Cougars weren’t expected to win, but they had a very good chance and were certainly supposed to put up a good fight.
They did not do that.
Washington scored 28 points in the first quarter to take a huge lead. The Cougars moved the ball but repeatedly stagnated inside the Washington 10-yard line. They could never make Washington sweat over the course of the second half. Then the Holiday Bowl was a total embarrassment. Minnesota was missing several key starters on defense but still easily locked down the Cougars’ passing attack. Washington State didn’t play with much energy or passion. The loss to Washington took all the starch out of this team. It was a bitter end to what had been a good season.
Offseason Changes
Gabe Marks and River Cracraft were outstanding receivers for the Cougars last season, but they are gone to professional football. They were both very good at keeping feet and toes in bounds on sideline catches. They were clever and resourceful, and they made great targets for quarterback Luke Falk. The team has to find high-level replacements for those two pass catchers this season if the Cougars are going to be successful.
Team X-Factor
Hercules Mata’afa is a highly-rated defensive lineman. He needs to have an elite season worthy of the hype and attention he has received. Otherwise, Washington State could be pushed around by the strong offenses in the rest of the Pac-12, especially the North Division. Washington State should still have a good offense, but the defense will need to keep the team in games and make scores manageable enough for the offense to put the Cougars over the top. This does not have to be a dominant defense, but it has to be a competent one, and that starts with Mata’afa.
What To Expect From The Cougars This Year
Washington State pounded Stanford and scored big against Oregon. The Cougars benefited from down years for two programs which have recently been very strong. Wazzu will have another solid season if it can still beat those two schools. A split is probably a reasonable expectation, so all in all, the Cougars will slightly decline – by one game – instead of making a leap to the division championship.
Record Last 5 Seasons
2016: 8-5
2015: 9-4
2014: 3-9
2013: 6-7
2012: 3-9
Schedule & Outlook
The Cougars have a relatively manageable start to the season that should see them start 4-0. They’ll start the year with four consecutive home games, which includes Montana State, Boise State, Oregon State and Nevada. The lone team that might trip them up there is Boise State. From there, things get far more challenging as the Cougs will host USC on September 29th, and then finish the year with five of their final seven on the road. They’re capable of stunning USC, though, and that could be one of the biggest games in program history. We’ll see if they’re up for it.
The Cougars were 8-4 in the regular season but 7-2 in the Pac-12. They will still go 8-4 this year, but 6-3 in the Pac-12 if not 5-4. The league will gain on them this season.
Regular Season Win Total Prediction: Over 7.5
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