Yikes. There is no other reaction to offer for the Rebels, who have been hit harder than any other SEC team and any other college football program in the offseason. Losing Chad Kelly, a strong-armed and very talented quarterback, was bad enough. Being ruled ineligible for the postseason due to NCAA sanctions was worse. Then, earlier in July, head coach Hugh Freeze abruptly resigned after a recorded instance of inappropriate behavior, specifically an improper phone call. This program is enduring a live-motion disaster, which is inching along and showing no signs of relenting. In many ways, it seems that the best thing about this season is that it will have to end at some point.
How Did They End 2016
The Rebels came from behind to beat Texas A&M and had reason to feel good about themselves. However, they then lost by 35 points to a Mississippi State team which entered the Egg Bowl with a 4-7 record. That complete capitulation in a rivalry game – something which means a lot to Ole Miss fans and alumni – reaffirmed the dark cloud which had been hanging over the school all season, and which became darker once postseason ineligibility for 2017 became official. This is a nightmare Ole Miss won’t soon wake up from.
Offseason Changes
Two new coordinators, Phil Longo on offense and Wes McGriff on defense, replace predecessors Dan Werner and Dave Wommack, but that was in the early point of the offseason. Then came the bombshell in July. Freeze – thanks in large part to the efforts of former Ole Miss coach Houston Nutt, who made a FOIA (Freedom Of Information Act) request for Freeze’s phone records – was caught making a call for an escort service. This, on top of previous misdeeds in terms of paying recruits, pushed Freeze out the door. Despite winning against Alabama and Nick Saban twice in the past three seasons, and winning a Sugar Bowl – making him Ole Miss’s best and most successful coach in many decades, Freeze could not hold on to his job. It’s a terribly negative development for a program which had begun to perform well.
Team X-Factor
Managing depth and depression after the offseason scandal and the NCAA punishments which accompanied it. The personnel losses, starting with Freeze and continuing with Kelly, a hugely talented quarterback, are bad enough, but knowing the team can’t go to a bowl and won’t spend this year without its regular head coach are even bigger burdens to carry. Interim coach Matt Luke will need to teach Xs and Os to his players, but first he must win their trust and convince them to play as hard as they normally would in any season or context. That will be very hard to do.
What To Expect From The Rebels This Year
Misery. It’s hard to see how this team will be inspired enough to play every game with full passion and commitment. That’s not a criticism, just a reality of being kicked to the curb and having to endure an unwanted coaching change two months before the start of the season. This will be a hugely difficult year for the Rebels.
Record Last 5 Seasons
2016: 5-7
2015: 6-3
2014: 9-4
2013: 8-5
2012: 7-6
Schedule and Outlook
Ole Miss gets to ease into their schedule with three games before the showdown with Alabama. They’ll start with South Alabama, then they’ll host UT Martin and then they’ll go to California. The Cal game could be tricky any other year but they’re rebuilding. After that, the Rebs head to Alabama, which is a sure-fire loss. They’ll go to Auburn right after, which is probably a loos again. The good news is that five of their final seven games are at home.
The Rebels will live in or near the SEC West cellar. They won’t have much of a chance of beating any particularly good team. They could surprise a few people by winning against Texas A&M or Arkansas, but even those scenarios are unlikely. It’s hard to see anything more than five wins as a best-case scenario.
Regular Season Win Total Prediction: Under 5
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