The Purdue Boilermakers have been a flat, lifeless, going-nowhere-quickly football program the past few years. They made a very reasonable hire of Darrell Hazell (from Kent State) a few years ago after Kent State nearly reached the Orange Bowl. However, Hazell couldn’t do at Purdue what he did in Kent, Ohio, so the Boilermakers turned the page. They might have found a portal into their past. Can new head coach Jeff Brohm revive Purdue football? His first season can’t be expected to deliver wins – we’ll see how much progress he can generate regardless of the scoreboard results.
How Did They End 2016
The Boilermakers didn’t go anywhere in 2016. They beat Illinois… and that was their one moment of satisfaction in Big Ten play. They lost their other eight conference games and won only one other Football Bowl Subdivision game, against Nevada. Purdue’s defense was a sieve, allowing large numbers of points virtually every week. Allowing 27 points to Nebraska and 26 to Indiana were the two best defensive performances of the Big Ten season – that’s how bad Purdue was. The offense could have been a lot better than it was, but even if that had been the case, the Boilermakers probably would have lost games by seven points instead of 27 points. They weren’t good enough to compensate for any of their deficiencies – that was not going to change based on modest improvements in the offense. This team need huge-scale improvements, and that brings us to the big change made by the program in the offseason.
Offseason Changes
Jeff Brohm replaces Darrell Hazell as head coach. The move makes sense because Purdue’s last great teams emphasized throwing the ball. Drew Brees was a Rose Bowl quarterback at Purdue in college before he became an all-time professional great in the NFL. Brohm is the kind of coach who could restore Purdue’s tradition of being a quarterback factory. Gary Danielson, Mark Herrmann, Bob Griese, and others formed Purdue’s quarterback legacy from the late 1960s through the early 1980s. This team won’t be a ferociously physical team. Purdue needs skill and cleverness to win its share of Big Ten games. Brohm knows that’s how he must win in West Lafayette, Indiana.
Team X-Factor
The sophisticated and aggressive passing attack installed by Brohm will be a work in progress. Any chance for the offensive system to work well absolutely depends on the ability of the offensive line to make the new-look approach function properly. No quarterback will have a chance in the new system to make the right decisions if he can’t get a reasonable amount of protection. This is where Brohm must improve in recruiting as he settles into his job.
What To Expect From The Boilermakers This Year
There’s no getting around it – a coach in year one of a new system, coming into a program which has struggled for many years without a lot of talent, is bound to struggle. Purdue will be at or near the basement in the Big Ten West.
Record Last 5 Seasons
2016: 3-9
2015: 2-10
2014: 3-9
2013: 1-11
2012: 6-7
Schedule and Outlook
Purdue will have a tough start to the schedule, opening up with a neutral site affair with Louisville. The Cardinals are a 23-point favorite in that game. After that, the Boilermakers will host Ohio – a game they should win – before going to Missouri in Week 3. Then they’ll wrap up their September schedule by hosting Michigan. If they have any more than one win after September, that would be a shock. However, they’re more likely to go 0-4 than 2-2.
Beyond that, the Boilermakers have a tough Big Ten schedule as they’ll have to go to Wisconsin, Northwestern and Iowa. The good news is there are some potentially winnable games with Illinois coming to town as well as Indiana.
If Purdue can beat Illinois and Rutgers, it can win three games. The Boilermakers should be good enough to do that… but nothing more. It’s a low number but this is going to be one of the worst teams in the country. There are better bets than the over here.
Regular Season Win Total Prediction: Over 2.5
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