It is always difficult when an incoming head coach changes an offensive system. It is always more difficult when a coach changes an offensive system and asks untested players to run it. That is the situation the Georgia Southern Eagles are entering in 2017. Let’s get some more details on what is happening with this program.
How Did They End 2016
The Eagles lived on the edge for much of their 12-game regular season. Six of their games were decided by only one score (seven points or fewer), and they were 3-3 in those six games. Georgia Southern will lament three games more than any others from 2016. The team lost by one point to co-champion Arkansas State just before the midpoint of the season in October, and it lost a pair of November games to Louisiana Lafayette and Georgia State, two teams which did not finish with winning records in 2016. Georgia Southern upset Troy (knocking the Trojans out of a share of the Sun Belt title) in the final game of the regular season, but because of the losses to ULL and Georgia State, the Eagles had to settle for a 5-7 season and no bowl game. That represented a missed opportunity and a genuine disappointment after having made and won a bowl game the season before.
Offseason Changes
Nearly everything will be noticeably different for this team. The 2017 version of Georgia Southern will feature only seven returning starters, meaning that 15 will be new – and that’s just offense and defense. The starting kicker, who made 19 of 20 kicks last season, will also be replaced, making the special teams outlook less certain.
The big point to note is that in 2016, new head coach Tyson Summers installed a hybrid spread offense after the program had used the triple option under a series of previous coaches. The transition of the offense held back the offense and the team. Yet, last year’s team was experienced. This year’s team isn’t. It seems hard to conceive of a situation in which younger players will have more success than upperclassmen in terms of running a new offense they’re not accustomed to. Summers has a massive task on his hands.
Team X-Factor
With so many starters being new players, all of them need to play at a reasonably tolerable level, but a few need to be great. Which ones? Probably the linebackers. Nearly all linebackers will be new, and since the Sun Belt has a number of potent offenses, Georgia Southern cannot get involved in shootouts. The offense isn’t developed enough to win 45-40 games. Linebackers, with responsibilities in run support and coverage, have to take command of their duties and play forcefully. Not getting good linebacker play would cause the defense to fall apart in many circumstances, taking away any realistic chance this team has of being successful in 2017.
What To Expect From The Eagles This Year
The situation is a mess. If a young 2016 team had a chance to build into 2017 and develop under the offense, there would be cause for hope. However, the new offense was installed last year under a veteran team which is unable to take the next step this season. Georgia Southern is very clearly starting over. That means this season is all about preparing for 2018. The program can’t expect to do much this year.
Record Last 5 Seasons
2016: 5-7
2015: 9-4
2014: 9-3
Schedule and Outlook
Georgia Southern is likely in for a rough start to the season as they’ll have to go to Auburn to get things started. The Tigers are currently laying -35 in that contest. Then the Eagles will come home to play UNH in Week 2 before going to Indiana in Week 3. They’ll get two weeks to prepare for that trip to Bloomington.
Because this team is younger and less experienced than last year, Georgia Southern has to play roughly as well as it did in 2016 just to stay afloat. Any decline in play means a certain drop in wins, and that is the most probable scenario with this squad. It is in a bad position. Next year will hopefully be better.
Regular Season Win Prediction: Under 5
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