The New Mexico State Aggies are embarking on their final trip as a member of the Sun Belt Conference. They will stay in the Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) next year, but they will do so as an independent. Can they make their last Sun Belt season count? The odds are stacked against them.
How Did They End 2016
The Aggies just weren’t very good in 2016. Unlike Sun Belt neighbor Idaho – the other team in the conference which lies well outside the natural geographical footprint – NMSU could not handle the many road trips to Texas, Arkansas and Alabama. The Aggies lost road games in all of those states, going 0-2 in games played in the state of Alabama against conference foes Troy and South Alabama.
Making a bowl game was not a reasonable expectation for a depleted and diminished team last year, but one game which got away was a 22-19 loss at home to Georgia Southern. The Aggies were unable to take advantage of a situation in which a Sun Belt team had to make a long commute to Las Cruces, New Mexico, to play a road game.
New Mexico State’s most frustrating experience related to the 2016 season was that the offense could not develop as the year went along. Only once in the final seven games of the season did New Mexico State score more than 28 points. Not surprisingly, that was the only game NMSU won. The Aggies lost the six games in which the offense failed to eclipse the 28-point mark. The season never got off the ground after an early-season upset of in-state rival New Mexico.
Offseason Changes
The team returns most of its starters, but on defense, Rodney Butler will be hard to replace. He led the nation last year in tackles per game with 13.8. The key part of that statistic is that one man was asked to make a lot of tackles on the defense. Where was everyone else? It’s not so much that NMSU has to replace one guy – the importance must be placed on everyone else becoming more solid, so the responsibility to tackle never falls on one person the way it did with Butler last year.
Team X-Factor
Quarterback Tyler Rogers has to help out running back Larry Rose III, but an even bigger worry for the Aggies is that their defense – statistically one of the 10 worst in the FBS last season – is uncertain in the secondary. The school recruited four junior college defensive backs in the offseason, a sign that it doesn’t trust the personnel already in the program. Getting merely decent cornerback play would do much to improve the Aggies’ fortunes this year.
What To Expect From The Aggies This Year
When a defense is bottom-10 in quality, it is hard to expect much improvement. The offense will be solid and generally better this season, but the defense is the harder side of the ball to develop and trust. The ceiling is very low with the kinds of limitations which exist on the NMSU defense.
Record Last 5 Seasons
2016: 3-9
2015: 3-9
2014: 2-10
2013: 2-10
2012: 1-11
Schedule and Outlook
The Aggies will start the season at Arizona State, which is not necessarily a good thing. They are posted as a 23.5-point underdog at last check, which indicates there’s a very slim chance of them winning. After that, they’ll face their rivals, New Mexico, but that’s another road game for them. From there, they’ll host a quality Troy team in Week 3 before hosting UTEP in Week 4. They’ll end their September with another tough road trip, this time to face the Arkansas Razorbacks. They’re going to be hard-pressed to have a record above .500 here or even be close.
The team will win four or five games if the secondary rounds into form, but should that be expected? Hardly. This team struggled in the Sun Belt a year ago, so there’s no convincing reason to expect anything different a year later – not with the defense in disrepair. Go under the number in this spot – even though it’s so low.
Regular Season Win Prediction: Under 3.5
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