The Louisiana Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns have enjoyed a very successful decade on balance, but the program’s progression in recent seasons has gone downward instead of maintaining the solid pattern established a few years ago. Can this team regroup and not merely get to a bowl, but make a real push at another Sun Belt championship? Expectations are greater for a team which used to rule the roost in the conference, as ULL did a few seasons ago.
How Did They End 2016
The Ragin’ Cajuns had previously been the class of the Sun Belt, winning multiple conference titles and offering the strong suggestion that head coach Mark Hudspeth would make the jump to the SEC or another bigger conference with a more high-profile national program. However, last year at Louisiana Lafayette was marked by a lot of internal turmoil and controversy. The shine wore off on Hudspeth, whose career is muddling along and might need years to revive. The caliber of player he has recruited to ULL has declined, and the 2016 season was generally reflective of that.
The opener at home against Boise State was a big deal. Every team in the Group of Five conferences (the five smaller conferences out of 10 in college football) wants a shot at the team which has been the most successful Group of Five school over the past decade. Yet, ULL fell flat against Boise State, losing 45-10 in a game which felt even more lopsided than the final score. The game spiraled out of control early and Boise State put it on cruise control. Right then, Hudspeth knew he had a more limited team. Merely getting to a bowl game became the reasonable goal.
The team almost missed… but it got there in the end. A 28-23 win over South Alabama in Week 3 was important. It offered a cushion when the Cajuns lost their next three games. ULL was 4-6 entering Game 11, but an upset win over Arkansas State, followed by a blowout of Louisiana Monroe, got the Cajuns to the 6-6 mark. They lost the New Orleans Bowl to Southern Mississippi, but they made a bowl game.
Offseason Changes
Elijah McGuire, who collected over 4,000 career rushing yards and became one of the greatest players in the history of ULL football, has graduated. The Cajuns also lost their top receiver from 2016, Al Riles. Getting players who can account for merely a reasonable fraction of their production would be valuable, and accepted, in the coming season.
Team X-Factor
On a team whose defense should be stout, largely due to the return of tackling machine Joe Dillon (who recorded 12.5 tackles for a loss of yardage last season), the offense is the concern. In addition to the McGuire and Riles departures, the Cajuns have no experience under center. Getting merely decent quarterback play to supplement the defense is the thing this team needs more than anything else.
What To Expect From The Ragin’ Cajuns This Year
When one side of the ball looks great and the other side of the ball looks vacant and unknowable, as is the case with the stellar defense and paper-thin offense, a natural assumption is to think that a team will struggle often yet remain competitive. A season in the area of four or five wins would not surprise.
Record Last 5 Seasons
2016: 6-7
2015: 4-8
2014: 9-4
2013: 9-4
2012: 9-4
Schedule and Outlook
The schedule is nasty. ULL did not get any favors except for one game against an FCS team. Texas A&M, Ole Miss, and Tulsa should all beat ULL. The Cajuns also have to deal with Appalachian State and Arkansas State, the 2016 co-champions of the Sun Belt. That’s five losses. The team would have to go 7-0 in its other games to have a winning season. Merely going 5-2 would be impressive. A 4-3 record would be decent. Don’t expect a bowl game with this schedule. There is a lot of work for this team to do to get to six wins. If you bet under, you get to push at five, which seems safe, and then win if they win less than five, which is a good possibility. Go under.
Regular Season Win Prediction: Under 5
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