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NFL Fantasy: Overvalued Wide Receivers

NFL Fantasy

With the change in rules over the last few years to favor the passing game and wide receivers, the position has seen an increase in value in fantasy. Add in that many teams frequently use three receiver sets and you have the deepest position in fantasy football. Even though there is so much depth at receiver, fantasy players still reach on some players. Although these players may be useful fantasy assets, they just are overrated coming into the 2017 NFL season. Here are five of the most overvalued wide receivers for 2017.

Doug Baldwin, Seattle Seahawks

11th Ranked Wide Receiver

In the last two seasons, Doug Baldwin has been one of the best wide receivers in fantasy football, but there are two reasons why he is overrated this year. The first is the unlikelihood Baldwin once again has a catch rate of 75%. The last two season Baldwin caught just over 75% of targets, one of the highest rates in the league. Looking over the previous four seasons, Baldwin never had a catch rate of over 70%. Expecting him to regress a bit in 2017 is smart. The second is that history shows he a bit inconsistent. For example, in 2015 Baldwin led the NFL in receiving touchdowns with 14. However, he scored ten in a four game stretch. In the ten games before his torrid streak, Baldwin scored three touchdowns and caught 70 yards or more only three times.

When Baldwin was being drafted later in drafts over the last two years, it made sense. As the No. 11 receiver off the board, you’re really buying high on him.

Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers

19th Ranked Wide Receiver

Excluding his rookie season, Keenan Allen has never been a top-12 receiver in fantasy. Much of that is due to injuries, which have limited him to just 23 games over the last three seasons. Injury concerns are not the only problem facing Allen. The Chargers have one of the busiest receiving corps in the league, lowering the total targets going Allen’s direction. In his rookie season, it was basically just him and Antonio Gates. Now there’s Travis Benjamin and Tyrell Williams and Hunter Henry and Mike Williams. That’s a lot of mouths to feed.

Allen’s career catch rate is 68.6%, meaning he will need to see 117 targets to be a top-20 receiver in PPR leagues and about 140 targets to be a top-20 receiver in standard leagues. You’re better off taking a shot on Tyrell Williams later in your draft.

Sammy Watkins, Los Angeles Rams

28th Ranked Wide Receiver

It is still difficult to determine if the trade to the Rams will help or hurt Watkins fantasy value, but people should be cautious drafting Watkins. In his three years in the league, Watkins has missed 11 games and only once topped 1000 yards receiving. Watkins has great big play potential, but the Rams offense has been one of the worst in recent NFL history at plays 20 yards or more.

Jared Goff has looked good in the preseason but the biggest beneficiary could be rookie Cooper Kupp as Goff has developed a strong connection with him. Keep Watkins on your draft board, just do not grab him to be one of your starting wide receivers.

Pierre Garcon, San Francisco 49ers

34th Ranked Wide Receiver

Moving from Washington to San Francisco this season will not help Pierre Garcon’s fantasy value in 2017. Using Torrey Smith as an example, it is realistic to expect a reasonable drop off in Garcon’s fantasy production. Smith, in his final season with the Ravens, scored 142.7 fantasy points in standard leagues. The next year, his first as a 49er, Smith’s production dropped to 92.3 points. That is a decline of 45%. Garcon scored 122.1 points in 2016 and even just a 25% drop would put Garcon around just 91 points.

John Brown, Arizona Cardinals

54th Ranked Wide Receiver

Uncertainty around John Brown’s health really hurts his potential in fantasy this season. After a great season in 2015, where Brown cracked 1000 yards receiving and reached the end zone seven times, Brown took a significant step back in 2016. Unlike an injury, with a projectable timeframe for recovery, Brown deals with a sickle-cell trait, which can cause muscle breakdown when doing intense exercise. This problem, which may resurface, hurts Brown in 2017. Be very weary and set low expectations for Brown this season.

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Written by Geoff Harvey

Geoff Harvey has been creating odds and betting models since his days in the womb, just don't ask him how he used to get his injury reports back then. Harvey contributes a wealth of quality and informational content that is a valuable resource for any handicapper.

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