Playing the second game of a doubleheader, the two team’s in this Sunday Night Baseball matchup couldn’t have been any different this season. The Washington Nationals have a 13.0 game lead in the National League East while also leading the New York Mets by 21.5 games. The run differentials of the two respective teams are also quite contrasting: +132 for the Nationals and -64 for the Mets. As of now, only two first-place teams are currently maintaining less than a 5.0 game lead over the second-place team in their respective divisions – the Boston Red Sox are leading the New York Yankees by 3.5 games in the American League East, although the Yankees have the better run differential (+126 to +84); the Chicago Cubs head the Milwaukee Brewers by 3.0 games in the NL Central. With that being said, here is an analysis of this Sunday Night Baseball matchup between two divisional rivals, which won’t really matter much within the context of the 2017 season.
Details
Date – Sunday August 27th, 2017
Time – 8:00PM EST
Why The Mets Might Win
In 11 starts on the year, Seth Lugo has compiled a 5-3 record to go along with a 4.85 ERA, 4.47 FIP, and 1.41 WHIP while allowing opponents to slash .283/.332/.463. More troubling is the fact that Lugo has allowed 10 HR in only 68.2 IP. To put that in perspective, Lugo has basically been surrendering a home run for every start. Additionally, his 20 BB to 52 K is also quite mediocre. Just compare these statistics to his numbers from 2016 – 8 games started with a 5-2 record, 2.67 ERA, 4.33 FIP, and 1.09 WHIP with only 7 HR in 64.0 IP. However, one could make the argument that Lugo was bound to regress this season due to his wild FIP compared to his ERA last season. While Lugo is coming back from an injury, he has not fared well in his most recent two starts. Additionally, in his two starts this year against the Nationals, Lugo is 0-2 in 11.2 IP while allowing 17 H, 10 R, 9 ER, 2 HR, 4 BB, and 8 K. If the Nationals decide to rest the majority of their starters for the back-end of this doubleheader, the Mets might be able to win this game, in addition to having the luxury of facing a rookie Nationals pitcher in Erick Fedde.
Why The Nationals Might Win
The Nationals are rolling out Erick Fedde, a rookie, as their starting pitcher. Fedde has really struggled in his first two Major League starts, throwing for a combined 9.1 IP while giving up 18 H, 11 ER, 3 HR, 6 BB, and 10 K. Even when Fedde was in the minors, he failed to post any sort of eyepopping numbers – he was simply average, with a 4-5 record, 3.69 ERA, and 1.16 WHIP. Additionally, the Nationals may opt to rest their everyday starts on the back-end of a doubleheader since they have a comfortable lead atop their division and will most likely head into the playoffs as the second seed in the NL. However, rather than facing the Colorado Rockies and Chicago Cubs, as Fedde did in his first two games, he will be up against a struggling Mets team. Maybe the third time will be the charm?
Outlook
It’s always advantageous for a pitcher to have never faced a team before, rather than the other way around. Batters who are facing a pitcher for the first time tend to have a difficult time adjusting during their first or second at-bats, which will likely be the case for the slumping Mets. Additionally, Fedde has already gotten rocked in his first two starts and will likely have settled in to the Big Leagues and should feel slightly less nerves in a start that really will have little to no ramifications on the Nationals’ season. As a result, Fedde will likely come out pitching looser. Coupled with the fact that the Nationals have hit Lugo hard in his two starts against them, the Nationals should be able to secure another win.
There isn’t a betting line up as of late night on Saturday, but go with the Nationals in this one. They’ll get the job done on this week’s Sunday Night Baseball.
Pick: Nationals
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