Lately, it seems that the MLB division winners are becoming clearer as the days progress. The Boston Red Sox have increased their American League East division lead over the New York Yankees to 4.5 games; the Cleveland Indians, currently on a 10-game winning streak, lead the Minnesota Twins in the AL Central by 8.0 games; the Chicago Cubs lead the Milwaukee Brewers in the National League Central by 4.5 games. In tonight’s matchup, the Red Sox are looking to further pad their division lead over the Yankees, while the Yankees, with a win, will inch closer to the Red Sox while maintaining distance against the rest of the AL wild card contenders.
Details
Date – Sunday September 3rd, 2017
Time – 8:00PM EST
Line – BOS -109
Why The Red Sox Might Win
The Red Sox couldn’t be in a better position – their ace and likely AL Cy Young Award winner, Chris Sale, is on the mound. Sale is 15-6 with a 2.77 ERA, 2.00 FIP, 0.91 WHIP, and 12.8 K/9 while holding opponents to a weak .197/.241/.316 slash line. So far this year, Sale has faced the Yankees four times, with a 0-2 record (surprisingly), albeit a stellar 2.12 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and 13.9 K/9. However, the Red Sox simply haven’t been able to provide Sale with much run support against the Yankees. Here are Sale’s pitching lines against the Yankees:
Game #1: 8.0 IP, 8 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 10 K (Red Sox lost 3-0; Sale lost)
Game #2: 7.2 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 13 K (Red Sox lost 4-1; Sale no-decision)
Game #3: 7.0 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 12 K (Red Sox won 3-2; Sale no-decision)
Game #4: 7.0 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 9 K (Red Sox lost 4-3; Sale lost)
If the Red Sox could give sale at least a decent offensive showing, I love their chances of winning this game.
Why The Yankees Might Win
The Yankees’ young phenom takes the mound tonight. Luis Severino has compiled an 11-6 record with a 3.14 ERA, 3.23 FIP, 1.10 WHIP, and 10.6 K/9 while allowing opponents to slash a weak .220/.279/.355. In three starts against the Red Sox, Severino is 1-1 with a 4.42 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, and 7.9 K/9. Clearly, Sale is the superior pitcher. However, Severino can clearly hold his own and if the Red Sox offense fails to show up for Sale again in this historic matchup, the Yankees may be able to squeeze out another win against the likely Cy Young Award winner. Additionally, it helps that Sale hasn’t been nearly as sharp in his last two starts, posting a 5.40 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.
Outlook
Let’s dive deeper into Sale’s head-to-heads against Yankees hitters:
- Chase Headley: .269/.296/.538 with 2 HR, 1 2B, 1 BB, and 6 K in 26 AB
- Brett Gardner: .200/.304/.200 with 3 BB and 8 K in 20 AB
- Aaron Hicks: .348/.348/.435 with 2 2B, 9 BB, and 8 K in 23 AB
- Ronald Torreyes: .143/.200/.143 with 1 BB and 3 K in 14 AB
- Gary Sanchez: .143/.143/.214 with 1 2B, 0 BB, and 6 K in 14 AB
- Aaron Judge: .000/.231/.000 with 2 BB and 8 K in 10 AB
- Austin Romine: .154/.154/.308 with 1 3B, 0 BB, and 6 K in 13 AB
- Jacoby Ellsbury: .000/.100/.000 with 0 BB and 7 K in 9 AB
It’s evident that the Yankees haven’t been able to get much of anything out of Sale, especially their two young guns in Sanchez and Judge.
Here’s some numbers on Severino’s head-to-heads against Red Sox hitters:
- Hanley Ramirez: .235/.235/.294 with 1 2B, 0 BB, and 7 K in 17 AB
- Xander Bogaerts: .133/.133/.200 with 1 2B, 0 BB, and 4 K in 15 AB
- Andrew Benintendi: .545/.583/1.182 with 2 HR, 1 2B, 1 BB, and 1 K in 11 AB
- Mitch Moreland: .333/.364/.444 with 1 2B, 1 BB, and 2 K in 9 AB
- Dustin Pedroia: .333/.400/.889 with 1 HR, 2 2B, 1 BB, and 2 K in 9 AB
- Sandy Leon: .125/.125/.375 with 1 3B, 0 BB, and 2 K in 8 AB
- Brock Holt: .143/.143/.143 with 0 BB and 4 K in 7 AB
The Red Sox hitters have been getting mixed results against Severino. However, Sale is the better pitcher, the Red Sox are the better team, and at a price of -118 with Sale on the mound, I’m betting on him to win his first game against the Yankees in his fifth try.
This betting line actually opened much higher – at -130 – but the early action has been on the Yankees. That works well for us as we like the Red Sox and would much rather bet on them at this price than the previous one.
Pick: Red Sox -109
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