The TCU Horned Frogs prepare to go to battle against the Arkansas Razorbacks in Fayetteville, Arkansas on September 9th at 3:30 p.m. EST. The match-up between the BIG-12 and the SEC can be seen on the CBS Network. Heading into the contest, the Horned Frogs are -3 point favorites and the game’s total sits at 58.
TCU comes in to this game this off a very easy 63-0 shut-out win over Jackson State. The Arkansas Razorbacks also had no problem dispatching Florida A&M by the score of 49-7. Last year, the two schools went tit for tat into overtime and Arkansas won a thrilling 41-38 game.
The TCU Horned Frogs were just 6-7 last year, but they are primed for a big bounce back campaign. The Horned Frogs have 10 returning starters back on offense and seven more ballers back on defense. Consequently, both sides of the ball were dominant in their 63-0 victory over Jackson State in their opener.
The Arkansas Razorbacks were 7-6 last year and they hope to show some improvement heading into 2017. Head coach Bret Bielema likes to field a ground and pound style of offense, which really opens up the play-action pass for big plays down the field.
TCU Horned Frogs (1-0)
The Horned Frogs sported one of the countries best offenses in 2014 and 2015. As a result, TCU racked-up 46.5 points per game and 42.1 points per contest in those two seasons. Unfortunately for TCU fans, the Horned Frogs returned only two starters in 2016 and their offensive production dipped down to 31 points per output.
Now, the Horned Frogs have 10 starters returning to the fold and could be one of the most explosive teams in the nation. Against Jackson State in their opener, TCU piled on 542 yards of total offense with 242 yards coming via the ground and 300 through the air.
Starting quarterback Kenny Hill is back and was efficient in his first outing. The experienced starter tossed the ball for 18 of 23 completions for 206 yards with four touchdowns and only one pick. If he keeps getting protected, he could be in for a breakout season.
Running back Darius Anderson led the Horned Frog’s rushing attack. He carried the ball 13 times for 67 yards on the day. Also, four other backs seen at least four carries that went for over 160 yards on the day.
The wide receiver corps was led by wide outs TreVontae Hights and Desmon White. Together, the duo combined for three catches for over 100 yards and three trips to the end zone. Both receivers are dangerous when TCU’s running game opens up passing lanes down field.
The Horned Frogs defense really looks like it will be a good one as they held Jackson State to mere 65 yards of total offense. I realize it is Jackson State, but the 67 total yards is an accomplishment against any opponent. We’ll have to see if this squad is as good on paper as on the field, when they face an SEC offense on the road Saturday afternoon.
Arkansas Razorbacks (1-0)
In their opener, the Razorbacks took on Florida A&M and won the game by a 49-7 score. Arkansas had a proficient performance on the ground, running for 236 yards on 45 carries. As a whole, the backfield averaged over five yards per carry.
Freshman tail back Chase Hayden had himself a day, rushing for 120 yards on 14 carries and a score. His back field mate Devwah Whaley also kept the Horned Frogs steady with another 60 yards on 12 more carries and a touchdown. Arkansas has a nice one-two punch at the running back spot coming into this match-up against TCU.
Quarterback Austin Allen is back under center for the Hogs. Last year, he threw for 3,430 yards with 25 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. He had a decent game against the Rattlers connecting on 14 of his 19 passes for 135 yards and a touchdown. The numbers don’t exactly jump out at you but that is just the kind run/pass ratio that coach Bielema is aiming for.
The other side of the football that is important for a Bret Bielema coached team is their defense. Over the last two years, they have yielded 27.4 points per game and then 31.1 points per contest in 2015.
Once again, the Razorback defense looked good against an out-matched opponent. In their win last week, the defense surrendered only 175 total yards of offense. Time will only tell if the Arkansas defense is as good as they looked against the lowly Rattlers.
In fact, they rate out at 10th or worse in the SEC in all three levels of the defense. This will be a much better test of that defense and they could struggle against a team that will have one of the best offenses in the nation.
Prediction
The Arkansas Razorbacks looked pretty good in their opener but Florida A&M isn’t the best measuring stick. The Razorbacks did run the ground and pound style of offense that Bret Bielema hangs his hat on. The problem for the Hogs this year will be a defense that rates as one of the worst in the SEC. That could spell big trouble against a TCU squad that returns ten offensive starters.
Arkansas has a solid offense, but the Horned Frogs have a solid defense. Yes, the Razorbacks play in the vaunted SEC, but they don’t necessarily field an SEC calibur defense. I think that the Horned Frogs should be able to put up plenty of points in this match-up. Whether or not the TCU defense can stop the Hogs’ rushing attack remains to be seen. I wouldn’t bet on it.
Las Vegas has the TCU Horned Frogs as a field goal favorite on the road for their week two game against Arkansas. The -3 points here could very easily be a good play as the Horned Frogs are better on both sides of the ball than Arkansas. Still, the play here is the over 58.
Both offenses should provide enough punch to keep these two teams battling deep into the fourth quarter. That usually bodes well for the over. I expect another close affair with both teams scoring in the high 20’s or the low 30’s. Don’t over think the line in this one, just play the over and enjoy the game.
Trends
The Horned Frogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
The Horned Frogs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
The Under is 5-1 in the Horned Frogs last 6 road games.
The Under is 4-1 in the Horned Frogs last 5 games overall.
The Razorbacks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.
The Razorbacks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in September.
The Under is 6-2 in the Razorbacks last 8 home games.
The Over is 7-3 in the Razorbacks last 10 games following a straight up win.
Join the Rainmaker and myself for our fourth addition of our College Football Throwdown podcast. We are going to review all the results from the previous Saturday’s action, including all the dogs that covered and the out right upsets. We also will be debuting our new session of “Who’s the dummy”, where we will discuss some of the ridiculous coaching decisions and player performances.
