This weekend will host the Battle of the Bulldogs in week two college football action as Mississippi State takes on Louisiana Tech at Joe Alliet Stadium on Saturday. The match-up between the two school’s is slated to start on Saturday, September 9th at 7:30 p.m. EST and can be seen on the CBS Sports Network. Odds makers have Mississippi State -8.5 point favorites and the over/under now sits 68.5.
Mississippi State is coming off an easy win over Charleston Southern 49-0. The Bulldogs had complete control from the very start and the game was decided by halftime. Louisiana Tech defeated Northwestern State 52-24 in their season opener. Tech scored 21 unanswered points to put his game to bed in the fourth quarter.
Mississippi State (1-0)
In the dismantling of Charleston Southern, quarterback Nick Fitzgerald picked up right where he loft off in 2016. The junior quarterback is a dynamic threat, recording 2,424 passing yards with 21 touchdowns and 10 picks. The athletic signal-caller also ran for another 1,375 yards. In his first game of 2017, Fitzgerald passed for 239 yards and two scores. He also ran the ball for another trip to the end zone.
The Bulldogs running game kept the offense balanced throughout the contest. Aeris Williams was solid on the ground, rushing for 83 yards on 16 carries. The junior running back tallied 720 rushing yards last season. Combined, Fitzgerald and Williams gives the Bulldogs a very dangerous rushing attack.
Wide receiver Donald Gray made three catches for 57 yards last week to help out his gunslinger. The 5-foot-10 senior is considered the Bulldogs’ number one receiver after bringing in 709 receiving yards in 2016. On the other side, Farrod Gray led the team with 68 yards through the air. More production from this unit will be needed when they enter conference play in the tough SEC.
The Mississippi State defense was almost perfect last week, holding Charleston Southern to an incredible 33 yards and just two first downs. Last season, the Bulldogs defense struggled at times and gave up a ton of yards. However, they should be much improved in all areas this season. They are deep at linebacker and will be an aggressive defensive that will pressure the opposing quarterback. Their rush defense will be tested in this contest.
Louisiana Tech (1-0)
The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs scored 21 unanswered points in the final quarter in their 52-24 home triumph over Northwestern State. New starting quarterback J’Mar Smith was steady, converting on 18 of his 35 passes for 276 yards with two touchdowns and he also rushed for 72 yards. So far, it looks that he will fit in nicely in a system that has seen quarterbacks flourish.
The sophomore signal-caller may not have any experience at the helm, but he does have a talented running back to ease him into his roll. Tail back Jarred Craft had a strong game on the ground last week, recording 86 rushing yards off 16 carries and two scores. The senior running back had a great season in 2016, amassing 1,074 yards. The Bulldogs will rely on his skills to keep teams guessing and pressure off of their rookie thrower.
Unfortunately, the Bulldogs lost their top two pass catchers from 2016. To combat the losses, Louisiana Tech brought in Teddy Veal on a transfer from Tulane. The junior wide receiver made three catches for 40 yards in the season opening win.
Five other receivers caught at least two balls and Jarred Craft grabbed an end zone strike. More players will need to emerge as down field threats to keep opposing secondaries honest.
Defensively, the Bulldogs were average at best. As a result, they allowed 389 total yards against a team they were expected to beat by close to 40 points. Their pass defense struggled at times and overall the play of their defense has to improve if they want to reach the Conference USA title game.
Prediction
Heading into this game, Mississippi State sports a potent offense led by a talented dual-threat quarterback. Furthermore, they are going against a shaky defensive unit that ranked 116th in the country in 2016 against the pass. Nick Fitzgerald is a big threat in the air and and on the ground and should have his way in this one.
The Mississippi State rush defense looks like it has improved this season, conceding only 18 rushing yards last week. That being said, Jarrod Craft is a shifty back and I do expect him to find some holes to work with. Also, LA Tech’s passing game is always going to put up their fair share of numbers. They have a proven system but still need some primary wide outs to take center stage. This would be the perfect game for that.
Odds makers have Mississippi State as a -8.5 favorite and I can’t argue with that one bit. I do believe they are the better team on offense and on defense. Buying this down to 6.5 and throwing it in on a little two gamer certainly is doable. Instead, I suggest taking the over 68.5 because Louisiana Tech does have the ability to score on the Bulldogs enough to push the total. Also, look at the Mississippi State team total 38.5. Nick Fitzgerald will get them the points they need for that.
Trends
Mississippi State Bulldogs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in September.
Mississippi State Bulldogs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
The Over is 4-1 in the Mississippi State Bulldogs last 5 road games.
The Over is 4-1 in the Mississippi State Bulldogs last 5 games on field-turf.
The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
The Over is 5-0 in the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs last 5 non-conference games.
The Over is 4-0 in the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs last 4 home games.
Join the Rainmaker and myself for our 5th addition of our NCAA College Football Throwdown Podcast on September 7th. We will be previewing all the upcoming games for Week Two and discussing the contest’s spreads and totals. We also will be giving our dog picks of the week as well as in-depth coverage of some of the weekend’s biggest games.
As of now, I’m cranking out winners at a 58 percent clip for the getmoresports.com readers and hope to push that over the 60 percent mark by the weekend’s end. Again, come join us for some valuable betting advice that could directly effect your pocket books come Monday.
