The Louisville Cardinals were fortunate to escape with a narrow one-score win over the Purdue Boilermakers in Week 1. The North Carolina Tar Heels were unfortunate to lose at home to the California Golden Bears in Week 1. Were these events indicators, or were they hiccups which will give way to a different identity and a better level of performance this Saturday and in the weeks beyond? It’s a very interesting question which hangs over this first Atlantic Coast Conference game for each team in 2017.
Details
Odds: Cardinals -10
Date & Time: Saturday, September 9, 12 PM ET
Location: Kenan Stadium, Chapel Hill, NC
Broadcast: ESPN
Reasons To Bet On The Louisville Cardinals
They have Lamar Jackson and North Carolina has a deficient quarterback situation. Jackson was not ruthlessly efficient in Louisville’s first game of the season, but he did pile up well over 400 yards of total offense and demanded Purdue’s attention every step of the way in that game. He had some rust to shake off as well. If he can be more adept at distributing the ball to his receivers and hit more big plays over the top, Louisville can run away with this game.
What should give Jackson and Louisville optimism is that North Carolina’s defense is not in good shape. The Tar Heels allowed over 360 passing yards to California in Week 1, a highly defective showing which should not have occurred at home against a weak Pac-12 team. If the performance had occurred against a quality power conference team, it would be one thing, but California is a bad team, worse than being merely average. It is equally valid to say that Louisville has a good offense as it is to say that North Carolina has a bad defense. This feels like a substantial mismatch which the Tar Heels can’t easily resolve.
Reasons To Bet On The North Carolina Tar Heels
The Louisville defense was on its heels and constantly out of position against Purdue. Louisville easily would have lost if Purdue hadn’t thrown an interception deep in Louisville territory which the Cardinals returned for a touchdown. Those mistakes let Louisville off the hook, but if the Cardinals persist in their sloppiness, it will catch up to them. Louisville made its mark last season, with Jackson capturing the Heisman Trophy and the team very nearly making the Orange Bowl against Michigan. Now, the Cardinals are a target, and with North Carolina having gotten upset the week before, the Tar Heels – playing at home – will be desperate. Early season games are often like this: The Week 1 loser often bounces back in Week 2 because of a greater sense of urgency. This is the pattern which can lift North Carolina to victory. The Tar Heels can surge in the early moments of the game and put Louisville off balance. In particular, the ability to get an early lead could enable North Carolina to put Jackson and Louisville in predictable passing situations. UNC can take away Louisville’s balance, and taking away UL’s balance is a way to take away the Cardinals’ unpredictability.
Outlook
This is an interesting betting line to look at as one has to wonder just how differently things could have been. Had North Carolina not blown their big lead and had they defeated California, and had Louisville lost as they deserved to, then would the Cardinals still be laying 10 points on the road in this spot? Likely not. The question is have both teams learned their lessons from last week or was their first outing of the season a trend of things to come.
The weaknesses for the North Carolina defense are far more pervasive and alarming than any weakness Louisville has. The Cardinals can win this game even while playing far below their best. The same can’t be said of North Carolina. UL really is a lot better. Although the Cardinals are on the road again in a tough spot, look for them to clean up the turnovers and win this game comfortably.
Prediction: Louisville -10
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