The teams that will represent German soccer in group stages of UEFA Europa League (Hoffenheim) and UEFA Champions League (Bayern Munich) this season will lock horns in week 3 of the German Bundesliga. Both squads had enough time to prepare for the upcoming duel because of the international break and most players should be well rested meaning that we should be witnessing some quality performances and top level soccer. Defending champions started the season with two wins for six points while the hosts collected four points (win and a draw) in the first two weeks of the new season.
This might be the game in which one of these teams records its first defeat in Bundesliga but there is no clear favorite as Hoffenheim proved last season that they can play against the Bavarians, especially at home. It’s quality-picks selecting time so let’s take a closer look.
TSG Hoffenheim 1899 vs. Bayern Munich
Three-Way: 1: TSG Hoffenheim 1899 +675; X: +415 Draw; Bayern Munich -182
Spread +1: TSG Hoffenheim 1899 +129; Bayern Munich -128
Total +3.5: Over +125; Under -123
TSG HOFFENHEIM 1899
The TSG Hoffenheim 1899 team managed to finish the last season ranked fourth in the German Bundesliga competition thus earning the UEFA Champions League playoff round berth. They weren’t very lucky in the playoff draw as they had to matchup against English representatives Liverpool who eliminated them after two games (1:2 home loss, 2:4 road loss). Nevertheless, they are going to compete in the group stage of the UEFA Europa League that begins during the next week.
In the national championship, they started the 2017 season very well with an opening 1:0 win over Werder Bremen at home and with a 2:2 road draw at BayArena in Leverkusen. Against Bayer, O. Baumann started as a goalie while E. Bicakcic, K. Vogt, and B. Hubner started at the center-back positions. J. Toljan, L. Rupp, N. Amiri and S. Zuber operated at the middle of the field while M. Uth, S. Wagner, and A. Kramaric started in front of them, closest to the opponents’ goalie. This attacking type of formation proved to be relatively efficient as they managed to score two goals (Andrej Kramaric in the 47th minute, Mark Uth in the 70th minute), although they managed to concede two goals as well. Kramaric was also the most dangerous player for Bayer’s goalkeeper Bernd Leno with two shots towards the goal while Mark Uth and Sandro Wagner recorded one shot each. Bosnian national Ermin Bicakcic and centre-back Kevin Vogt were the players that got booked while passing segment belonged to Florian Grilitsch with 88.9% of completed passes and Jeremy Toljan with 82.6% of completed passes.
Serge Gnabry (ankle) and Adam Szalai (groin) should be back in a few weeks while Kevin Vogt’s (unknown) and Stefan Posch’s (ankle) status is unknown. Benjamin Hubner (thigh) and Steven Zuber (groin) are listed as day to day.
BAYERN MUNICH
There is only one goal for the Bayern Munich team when it comes to the national championship and that is staying on the top. Everything besides the seventh title in a row would be considered as a failure by the fans and the management and it looks like Carlo Ancelotti’s squad took this goal seriously having in mind the way they started the season (two wins for a maximum of six points). They weren’t very determined in the offseason as they managed to record more defeats in friendly games during summer than any other Europan national champion. Nevertheless, pre season friendly games are not what counts and certain worries about Bayern’s form that were raised prior the start of the regular season are quickly fading away. The team will also start to compete in the UEFA Champions League group stage next week with an opener against Belgian side Anderlecht at Allianz Arena. Besides Belgians, Bayern Munich will compete with Paris Saint-Germain and Celtic in Group B.
In week 2 matchup against Werder Bremen, Manuel Neuer started at the goalkeeper position while N. Sule and M. Hummels operated in front of him at centre-back positions. J. Kimmich and D. Alaba started right and left back while C. Tolisso and A. Vidal were awarded mostly defensive assignments in the midfield. A. Robben, T. Alcantara, and F. Ribery operated in a more offensive manner as attacking midfielders while only centre-forward in starting lineup was R. Lewandowski who scored both goals in his team win over the hosts (72nd and 75th minute of the duel).
Chilean national who appeared for his national selection in the World Cup 2018 qualifiers, South America division during the last international break presented the biggest threat for Werder’s goalie Jiri Pavlenka with five total shots towards goal. He was also the only Bavarian player who got booked during the match. Niklas Sule and Corentin Tolisso dominated the passing game with 93.3% and 92.7% of passes completed while Sebastian Rudy had 100% of passes completed but only seven attempts after substituting Vidal in the 85th minute of the match.
The matchup against Werder showed us that Bayern Munich still has enough juice to take down the opponents in the national championship easily but the real test will come on Saturday against the team that his in equally good shape at the start of the 2017 season. Veterans like Ribery and Robben obviously still have enough strength to carry the team and with help of young defender Niklas Sule and midfielder James Rodriguez who signed with the team during the summer transfer window on a one-year loan deal from Real Madrid, Munich is probably still the No. 1 contender for the German Bundesliga title.
Juan Bernat (ankle) who got injured during the preseason is expected to be out until at least early November while David Alaba’s (ankle) status is unknown. One of the defensive pillars of the team, Jerome Boateng (calf) is back in training and should be available to coach Ancelotti on Saturday.
TSG Hoffenheim 1899 vs. Bayern Munich – Match Prediction
The hosts were the only team in German Bundesliga last season who hasn’t recorded a defeat against Bayern Munich in two league duels. In the first matchup in Munich, they recorded a 1:1 draw with goals by K. Demirbay and S. Zuber (o.g) thus laying the field for Bayern’s first loss of the season that followed in the next week at Dortmund. The second and final defeat of the season (Bayern Munich had 25-7-2 record in 2016) took place at Rhein-Neckar-Arena in Sinsheim Andrej Kramaric’s goal in 21st minute of the showdown secured three points for Hoffenheim.
Bayern obviously struggles against the Blues from the village (nickname for TSG Hoffenheim 1899 players) and it’s very hard to predict how they’re going to cope with them on Saturday. Still, Bayern Munich remains the slight favorite as Hoffenheim already proved that they are having problems against relatively stronger teams like Liverpool this season, so there is a high possibility of the visiting team to take all three points.
However, the odds are not very appealing on the road team to win, which is why I am looking into the total goals scored for some action. Namely, in the last 5 Bundesliga matchups, the two teams have never combined for more than 3 goals. Therefore, I will trust the trends and go with the under.
My pick: Under 3.5 goals (-123)
