Denny Hamlin won his second race of the season at Darlington last week, but it is encumbered as his car failed the post-race inspection. That is ironic as we come to Richmond Raceway for the second time this season as Joey Logano won the spring race here, but he had his win taken away from him because he failed the post-race inspection. Hamlin had a win to fall back on from New Hampshire, while Logano does not and basically has to win the regular-season finale on Saturday night to get into the Chase.
Details
Event: Federated Auto Parts 400
Category: NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series
Date: Saturday, September 9th, 7:30 PM ET
Location: Richmond Raceway, Richmond, Virginia
Hamlin won over Kyle Busch, Kurt Busch, Austin Dillon and Erik Jones at Darlington, while Martin Truex Jr. was winning late in the race, but blew a title and finished eighth. However, Truex claimed the regular-season title, so he can breathe easy going into Richmond. Chase Elliott, Matt Kenseth and Jamie McMurray hold the final three playoff spots, and Logano trails McMurray by 129 points.
Past Five Winners
2016: Denny Hamlin
2015: Matt Kenseth
2014: Brad Keselowski
2013: Carl Edwards
2012: Clint Bowyer
The Field
Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr. all have the same odds to win this week, making this trio the three favorites Busch is actually second in the standings, trailing the leader Martin Truex Jr., but it’s pretty clear that his success at this track is what puts him in this position. Truex Jr. has been the best driver on the circuit all season long. There are only three other drivers who are inside of 10/1, and those are Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski and Kyle Larson. While Harvick is up there in terms of the odds, he’s been a dicey bet this year. While he does have 16 Top’s, he’s only cashed for you once with just the one win. Larson is second on the series with three wins to date. Jimmie Johnson also has three wins this year but he’s priced lower this week at +1200. He’s currently 10th in the Monster Energy Cup standings.
What To Know About The Track
Richmond Raceway opened in 1946 and has been the host of the regular-season finale since 2004, when NASCAR’s playoff structure was started. It is 0.75 miles with 14 degrees of banking in the corners, eight degrees on the frontstretch and two degrees down the backstretch, and like the spring race, this event will be held at night under the lights.
A Good Matchup To Bet: Denny Hamlin Over Kyle Busch
In terms of average finish at Richmond, counting both races, Busch has the best average finish among active drivers at 7.3 in 24 starts with four wins. Hamlin is second at 9.8 in 22 starts, including three wins. But all four of Busch’s wins here have come in the spring, and all from 2009 to 2012. Hamlin’s three wins have all come here in the summer, including last year when he led 189 laps. The average finish for the summer races: Hamlin is 9.3 for 11 starts, and Busch is 9.5 for 12 starts. Hamlin gets the nod in this matchup at +110 over Busch at -140, and then you factor in that Hamlin will be driving his guts out after getting his win (and playoff points) taken away after Darlington. Oh, and he is from Virginia, so he always wants to win here.
Top-Five Pick: Kevin Harvick
Harvick is right behind Busch and Hamlin in terms of Richmond averages as he is second in the summer race at 8.6 in 16 starts, including wins in 2006 and 2011. He is third in overall average at 10.3 in 33 starts, and he has three wins in total. He finished two sports behind Hamlin in fifth in the spring race here and Harvick could possibly move up in the standings with a win, which never hurts.
Odds To Win Federated Auto Parts 400
Kyle Busch +500
Denny Hamlin +500
Martin Truex Jr +500
Kevin Harvick +600
Brad Keselowski +800
Kyle Larson +800
Jimmie Johnson +1200
Matt Kenseth +1200
Joey Logano +2000
Chase Elliott +2000
Erik Jones +2200
Ryan Blaney +3500
Kurt Busch +3500
Jamie McMurray +3500
Clint Bowyer +3500
Dale Earnhardt Jr +7500
Ryan Newman +7500
Daniel Suarez +10000
Kasey Kahne +10000
Austin Dillon +10000
Field +3000
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