The New Mexico Lobos travel to the blue turf to play a Mountain West Conference match-up against the Boise State Broncos on Thursday night. The game is slated to start on Thursday, September 14th at 8:00 p.m. EST and can be seen on the ESPN Network. As of this article, the Broncos are a -16.5 favorite and the contest’s total is at 57.
The New Mexico Lobos are coming off a very tough 30-28 home loss to inner-state rivals New Mexico State. The Boise State Broncos are off an equally heartbreaking defeat as they lost 47-44 to Washington State in overtime. In last year’s game, Boise State won at New Mexico by a score of 49-21.
New Mexico Lobos (1-1)
In the Lobos’ second game, the competition got a little better. As a result, they lost to their rivals the New Mexico State Aggies. In that game, in their second game and they fell 30-28 to in-state rival, New Mexico State.
The Aggies are not a premier FBS club, but they are a very experienced team and played well in their loss to Arizona State on the road. The Lobos went down 30-5 at the starter of the 4th quarter but made a furious comeback to lose the match by just two points.
Leading the comeback against the Aggies, was quarterback Tevaka Tuioti. Tuioti replaced starter Lamar Jordan after Jordan wasn’t effective for the first three quarters. Tuioti tossed the ball for 151 yards and two touchdowns in the loss, while Jordan only threw for 103 yards and served up two picks. All totaled, the Lobos racked up 430 yards of total offense in the game, collecting 176 yards via their rushing attack.
Leading the way for the Lobos ground game was a trio of running backs that pitched in for 107 yards. Also, wide out Jay Griffin IV got into the mix. Griffen IV only had one carry but he made the most of it. The wide out dashed for 64 yards to pay-dirt in the midst of the fourth quarter comeback. He also caught five balls for another 95 yards and a score.
The big problem in this battle was the Lobos’ defense allowed 500 yards of total offense. To make matters worse, the New Mexico secondary got burned through the air for 401 of them. Now, that same secondary will have to improve as the Broncos are a good passing team. In last year’s game, the Lobos allowed Boise State’s signal-caller Brett Rypien to throw for 391 yards and four scores in a 49-21 loss.
Boise State Broncos (1-1)
The Boise State Broncos may not be the dominant team in the Mountain West like they have been in the past, but this is still a solid football team. The Washington State Cougars found that out in their third overtime win against the Broncos last Saturday night.
In their loss to the Cougars, starting quarterback Brett Rypien went down with an injury. Rypien was replaced by Montell Cozart. Cozart had seen some playing time in their win versus Troy.
The youngster provided a spark throwing for 161 yards and two touchdowns and rushed for a team-high 74 yards and another score. Unfortunately, his inexperience showed as he threw an untimely pass to stop the clock late in the game and also ran out of bounds to stop it again a play later.
With the help from new comer Montell Cozart, the Broncos two tail backs had an effective day. Alexander Mattison and Ryan Wolpin combined for 23 more carries for 92 yards and a trip to the end zone. Altogether, the Broncos rushed for 168 yards against a good Washington State defense.
Stellar wide receiver Cedric Wilson did his part to keep the chains moving in the passing game. Wilson was electric, catching nine passes for 147 yards and two touchdowns. In fact, he doubled the output from the rest of his teammates. Overall, Boise State finished the overtime affair with 236 yards through the air.
Nevertheless, it was the Boise State defense that let them down when it mattered most. Washington State amassed 455 yards on this defense, including 433 yards through the air. They will not be facing a good passing team in the Lobos but stopping the run will be at a premium. Last year, New Mexico ran for an inexcusable 382 yards on the Broncos.
Prediction
Let’s face it, the Broncos let one get away from them last week against the Cougars. Somehow, the Lobos came back to make their game against the Aggies close. Either way, both schools fell short and now need a victory to rise above the .500 mark.
New Mexico had a pretty good 2016 campaign but were expected to take a step back in 2017. Primarily because their defense only returned three starters. So far, that has proven to be true. Especially in the passing game where the Lobos have surrendered 337.5 yards per game in the first two weeks.
Boise State will be fired up and at home on the Smurf Turf, so those numbers could get even worse. As of now, I can’t see how Cedric Wilson might not eclipse the 200 yard mark with another two or three scores. If so, New Mexico won’t be able to come back on the Broncos defense like they did the Aggies.
The key in this match-up will be the Boise State defensive line against the men up front for the Lobos. New Mexico has to keep the Broncos’ play-makers off the field if they want to stick around in this one.
Whether Brett Rypien is back from his head injury or Montell Cozart finds himself in the starting roll, the Broncos will still have their way in the passing game. That’s bad news for New Mexico.
With that being said, I see Boise State having no problem scoring in the high 30’s in this one. New Mexico seems to play the Broncos tough so I’m suggesting to stay away from the line here. Instead, lay your money on the Lobos helping to push that over 57 with a decent offensive performance.
Trends
The Lobos are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
The Lobos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in September.
The Over is 12-5 in the Lobos last 17 games overall.
The Over is 11-5 in the Lobos last 16 games in September.
The Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 conference games.
The Broncos are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games.
The Under is 4-1 in the Broncos last 5 Thursday games.
The Under is 11-3 in the Broncos last 14 home games.
The Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
The Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
