The Colorado State Rams will test their merit against the #1 ranked Alabama Crimson Tide in Tuscaloosa, Alabama on Saturday. The clash between the two universities is scheduled for Saturday, September 16th at 7:00 p.m. EST and can be seen on ESPN2. As of now, the Crimson Tide are -28.5 point favorites and the contest’s total sits at 53.5.
Colorado State Rams are 2-1 after upending Abilene Christian, 38-10 in Fort Collins last week. Now, they will head south to play the best team in the country when they square-off against Bama’ in Tuscaloosa.
Alabama took care of business against Fresno State last week, crushing them to the tune of 41-10 at home. The Tide ran their record to 2-0 after they beat up on Florida State, 24-7 in their opener. Even though Colorado State is a mid-major program, they will be tested a lot more than they did against Fresno State last week.
Colorado State Rams (2-1)
Quarterback Nick Stevens has completed 59.5 percent of his passes for 980 yards with six touchdown strikes and four interceptions. Last week, Stevens completed 25 of 40 for 337 yards with three scores and just one pick.
The senior is certainly a capable signal-caller, who has also completed 64.2 percent of his passes for 1,936 yards last season. He also has a respectable 47 touchdowns with just 21 interception in his career. This will be the best defense he has ever faced when he plays Alabama on Saturday.
Colorado State sports a strong one-two punch at the running back spot. Junior Izzy Matthews and senior Dalyn Dawkins have produced quite well three games into their 2017 campaigns.
Daylon Dawkins is a transfer from Purdue, who is in his third season with CSU. Last year, he ran for 919 yards and four scores. This season, he has 183 yards and two trips to the end zone. Izzy Matthews, who had 734 yards last year, has 148 yards this year with a rushing touchdown and a receiving score. Yardage will be at a premium when they face the formidable front seven of the Crimson Tide.
Three receivers collect most of the yardage for Nick Stevens. Combined, the trio has reeled in 53 balls for almost 700 yards and three scores. At times, Michael Gallup can be dynamic. He leads the Rams with 26 catches for 309 yards and a trip to the promised land. Teammate Olabisi Johnson compliments him nicely, reeling in 14 catches for another 220.
Defensively, Colorado State is surrendering 378.7 yards per game and that’s just about four yards less than Alabama is averaging on offense. But of course, they did just play an FCS opponent and gave up 27 points against Oregon State in a 31-point win on Aug. 26. The concern is the pass defense that is giving up 259 yards per game.
Defensively, Colorado State is allowing just under 380 yards a game. But of course, they did just play an FCS opponent and gave up 27 points against Oregon State in a 31-point win to kick-off their season. The concern with the Rams lies in their pass coverage unit. Overall, Colorado State is giving up 259 yards per game.
(1) Alabama Crimson Tide (2-0)
On the other side, the Crimson Tide went up 14-3 in the first quarter against Fresno State and never looked back. Quarterback Jalen Hurts played well, completing 14 of 18 passes for 128 yards and a touchdown. Once again, he also gashed the opposing team with his feet, recording another 154 yards and two more scores. I expect him to have a big game against the Rams’ struggling secondary.
Jalen Hurts is coming off a tremendous freshman season that included 2,780 passing yards with 23 touchdowns and nine picks. He also had 954 rushing yards and 13 more trips to pay-dirt. In last week’s match-up, Alabama totaled 497 yards of offense, including 305 on the ground.
Combined with their quarterbacks numbers, Alabama has one of the best ground games in the nation. Tail backs Bo Scarbrough and freshman Najee Harris have tons of potential. Scarbrough rushed for 812 yards and had 11 end zone appearances last year. Surprisingly, he has just 76 yards on 21 carries this season. Freshman Najee Harris has also shown potential with 75 yards on 16 carries.
Wide out Calvin Ridley is Jalen Hurts’ favorite target and is set to go off against the Rams weak secondary. Obviously, passing isn’t the Tides’ first option but Ridley still has caught 12 balls for 127 yards and a score. I expect these number to rise as the Bama’ offense becomes more balanced later on in the season.
The bread and butter for the Crimson Tide rests with their talented defense. They have allowed just 8.5 points per game in their first two. Furthermore, they are ranked 23rd allowing only 282 yards of total offense. Even more impressive is their ability to stop the run, giving in to just under 50 yards per game.
Prediction
As good as the Crimson Tide are, they didn’t cover Fresno State last week. Las Vegas has this line at 28.5 and I wouldn’t be one bit surprised to see it inflate to almost 30 by weeks end.
The Alabama passing game has came out of the gate a little flat in 2017, but this is the perfect game for that to blossom. Even still, Rome wasn’t built in a day and the Rams probably will find some success on offense over the four quarters.
I’ve squawked about how I believe the Rams are the best team in the Mountain West and I’m sticking to that analysis. Sure, losing to Colorado was a big disappointment but they did limit them to 17 points of offense. Take Colorado State with the half point help, in a game that might just catch Alabama off guard.
Also, I think the over 53.5 is playable here. If the Crimson Tide find themselves with a passing attack, 35 plus points is totally within reason. Colorado State has to score to cover the 28.5 and I think they will find a way to get 17-20 points by the closing whistle. Alabama moves to 3-0 with a 38-17 victory over the Rams on Saturday.
Trends
The Rams are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a straight up win.
The Rams are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games overall.
The Under is 6-2 in the Rams last 8 non-conference games.
The Over is 5-2 in the Rams last 7 games overall.
The Crimson Tide are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
The Crimson Tide are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
The Under is 8-2 in the Crimson Tide last 10 home games.
The Under is 4-1 in the Crimson Tide last 5 games on grass.
